Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
837 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Upper trough digging down the Atlantic coast displaces upper
ridging that has been the primary influence over the past weekend.
This, combined with the weak low that that has been meandering
off the FL/GA coast drifting into southeast GA, will bring more
widespread, but still diurnally oriented, convection to the
forecast area over the next 36 hours. With a somewhat tropical
profile to the atmosphere, lapse rates remain weak and instability
limited but precipitable water values are quite hefty, resulting
in limited severe thunderstorm potential but a continuing chance
for localized heavy rain. Not seeing enough larger-scale excessive
rain right now to pinpoint any areas for a Flood Watch. Warm and
humid conditions continue, however cloud cover and precipitation
should keep heat index values below advisory levels through
Tuesday.

20

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Apparent Temperatures (Heat Index Values) may approach 105
degrees for the southern half of the CWA for the end of the week
into the weekend.

CWA remains in NW flow through much of the extended period of the
forecast. Longwave trough that sets up just to the east looks to
retrograde a bit by early next week, driving the ridge back to the
west. At the surface, there should be a weak frontal boundary
across northern GA Wednesday into Thursday. This front should
become diffuse by early Friday. A second frontal boundary should
begin to sag southward across northern portions of the state by
the weekend. This front will remain stationary through early next
week.

Widespread heat index values may approach 105 degrees south of
the Interstate 20 corridor Thursday and Friday. With the
stationary frontal boundary setting up across northern GA for the
weekend, the highest heat index values will likely shift south of
an Athens to Macon to Columbus line.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Thunderstorms around metro Atlanta have generated multiple
outflow boundaries around KATL and other metro sites. Could see
erratic, gusty winds until 02z or so as showers/storms continue to
drift/fire along the boundaries. Have a TEMPO for TSRA until 02z
for ATL, PDK, and FTY. Winds should shift to the east side
overnight, generally remaining under 4 kts. Will have areas of
MVFR visbys between 06z and 14z, with localized IFR visbys.
Guidance generally favoring NW winds at 4-7 kts on Tuesday.
Expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday afternoon/evening, so am maintaining the PROB30 starting
at 18z Tuesday for ATL and other metro sites.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  90  73  94 /  40  60  50  20
Atlanta         77  89  75  93 /  40  60  50  30
Blairsville     68  84  67  89 /  50  60  40  20
Cartersville    74  90  73  94 /  40  60  40  20
Columbus        76  92  75  94 /  40  60  60  60
Gainesville     74  88  73  93 /  50  60  50  20
Macon           75  93  73  95 /  30  60  70  50
Rome            75  91  73  96 /  50  60  40  10
Peachtree City  75  91  74  94 /  40  60  50  40
Vidalia         75  91  73  92 /  40  70  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
239 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
239 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across north and central
Georgia this afternoon and evening. Storms could become strong
with locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across north and
central Georgia Tuesday through Sunday afternoons and evenings. A
few storms could become strong and will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Heat advisory conditions are possible Wednesday through Friday,
especially across east central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
848 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

GAZ047>049-270115-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Newton GA-
848 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MORGAN...WALTON AND
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 848 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Herndonville, or near
Monroe...moving south at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Monroe, Covington, Social Circle, Rutledge, Between, Jersey,
Herndonville, Ebenezer, Hard Labor Creek State Park and Pannell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3381 8383 3383 8367 3365 8357 3360 8369
      3361 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 344DEG 8KT 3374 8374

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
852 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

GAZ049-059-270115-
Morgan GA-Jasper GA-
852 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN AND
NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 852 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Rutledge, or near
Madison...moving south at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Madison, Rutledge and Godfrey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3361 8364 3365 8350 3347 8339 3344 8351
      3343 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 344DEG 8KT 3358 8357

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
920 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

GAZ034-035-047>049-270145-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-
920 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...WALTON...
SOUTHWESTERN BARROW...EASTERN GWINNETT AND EASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

At 920 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Harbin to Pannell to near Ebenezer to
Starrsville...and moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Winder, Monroe, Covington, Social Circle, Rutledge, Newborn,
Bethlehem, Bostwick, Between, Good Hope, Ebenezer, Bold Springs,
Windsor, Nicholasville, Starrsville, Hard Labor Creek State Park,
Brick Store, Pannell, Campton and Herndonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3378 8351 3363 8349 3352 8362 3354 8391
      3368 8376 3376 8376 3391 8394 3396 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 279DEG 13KT 3392 8385 3378 8368 3367 8365 3355
8378

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
947 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

GAZ037-047-049-270215-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Oconee GA-
947 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...EASTERN
WALTON AND WESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 947 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Monroe. This storm was
nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Monroe, Social Circle, Rutledge, North High Shoals, Bostwick, Good
Hope, Jersey, Ebenezer, Nicholasville, Hard Labor Creek State Park,
Pannell, Campton and Herndonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3374 8383 3389 8376 3386 8350 3374 8352
      3362 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 286DEG 4KT 3380 8371

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
952 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

GAZ048-049-059-270215-
Morgan GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
952 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...NORTHERN
JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 951 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Eudora, or 10 miles
northwest of Monticello. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Monticello, Newborn, Mansfield, Shady Dale, Calvin, Farrar, Eudora,
Turtle Cove, North Alcovy and Starrsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3329 8369 3334 8386 3338 8386 3338 8387
      3344 8384 3355 8380 3351 8359 3335 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 278DEG 3KT 3343 8377

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1014 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

GAZ058-059-071-270245-
Butts GA-Monroe GA-Jasper GA-
1014 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUTTS...NORTHEASTERN
MONROE AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

At 1014 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over McElheneys
Crossroads, or near Monticello. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Monticello, Flovilla, McElheneys Crossroads, Berner, Adgateville and
Hillsboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3332 8390 3336 8368 3320 8355 3315 8371
      3313 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 343DEG 3KT 3327 8377

WIND...40MPH