Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

A wet and unsettled forecast will persist through the short term
with deep tropical moisture and a persistent upper level trough in
place. Initial convective development earlier this morning was
focused across far southeast portions of the CWA in an area of
supportive CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Elsewhere, widespread midlevel
cloud cover kept deeper convection at bay through early afternoon
with only scattered light rain showers. Through the afternoon, the
earlier cloud cover will continue to break, and additional showers
and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the area. Locally
heavy rainfall rates will be the most notable risk in any
thunderstorms, though a couple of stronger thunderstorm are
possible, primarily in portions of Middle Georgia where instability
is higher. Though coverage will decrease somewhat, some degree of
shower and thunderstorm coverage will persist into the overnight
hours given deep moisture regime and aforementioned upper trough and
surface front across the Tennessee Valley.

A weak upper low will form through tonight across the mid-
Mississippi Valley and track into the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, a
weak surface low will remain situated over the Lower Mississippi
Valley along the nearly stationary surface front which will extend
northeastward into north Georgia. These features in combination with
very moist PWs over 2" will lead to widespread development of
showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will
again be the primary concern with this activity given these
anomalously high PWs. Thus, a Marginal Risk remains painted
across the entire CWA on the Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC
for Monday. High temperatures on Monday will be held well below
normal due to widespread cloud cover and rainfall. In fact, highs
will struggle to reach 80 degrees in north Georgia, some 10-12
degrees below normal.

RW

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Not much to change in the long term. Upper trough persists over
the Southeast through the first part of the period. Models are
hinting that the surface front may not drift far into north GA
so have upped the pops a bit for Tuesday night...and have added
low pops for Thursday and Friday night. Previous discussion is
included below.

Previous...
Unsettled weather pattern continues for the long term with Chance
PoPs every afternoon through the extended. For the first half of the
long term, major player for PoPs will be a sweeping positively
tilted trough along a stationary front draped across the SE. This
appears to be in response to the Bermuda high shifting further
eastward, slowing its progression. This stationary front will bring
scattered afternoon convection across much of the CWA through
Wednesday. For the latter half of the extended, this trough ejects
eastward in contrast to a surface high moving off the western
Florida panhandle, this high over the Gulf in tandem with a
developing mid/upper low near the ArkLaTex region should provide
ample moisture across the CWA moving into Thursday, evident by the
2"+ PWATS the GFS is showing, which is near the max moving avg for
this time of year. QPF values should fluctuate with each forecast
package given the summer time scattered nature of precip, but
generally expecting between 1-2" through the extended, with
locally higher amounts possible.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Earlier midlevel cigs in the 10-15kft range will gradually
diminish into the afternoon with cu in the 030-050 range
developing. Sct shra/tsra will become more widespread with tempo
tsra 19-23z potentially needing extensions with any persistent
convection. MVFR and IFR cigs increase by 07-10z. Cigs look to be
slow to improve with MVFR likely into the day Monday. Widespread
shra/tsra expected Monday, especially by midday. Winds today will
remain largely W/SW at 3-6kts becoming near calm and vrb overnight
and again W 3-6kts Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  80  69  80 /  50  80  80  80
Atlanta         70  79  69  80 /  50  80  80  80
Blairsville     65  75  64  73 /  60  90  80  70
Cartersville    69  78  68  81 /  50  80  80  70
Columbus        72  83  71  83 /  30  80  70  90
Gainesville     69  78  68  78 /  50  80  80  80
Macon           72  85  70  85 /  40  80  70  90
Rome            70  78  69  82 /  50  80  70  70
Peachtree City  70  79  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
Vidalia         73  86  72  87 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-190945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall,
gusty winds and frequent lightning are expected this afternoon and
evening across north and central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across north and
central Georgia through Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become strong with very heavy rain,
gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1115 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

GAZ086-181545-
Emanuel GA-
1115 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL
1145 AM EDT...

At 1115 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Garfield, or 13 miles
southwest of Millen...moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Twin City, Garfield, Canoochee and George L Smith State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3256 8202 3255 8205 3256 8208 3252 8214
      3252 8215 3269 8225 3276 8212 3268 8209
      3266 8208 3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1515Z 239DEG 48KT 3265 8208

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
500 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

GAZ086-098-112-113-182130-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
500 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TOOMBS...SOUTHWESTERN
EMANUEL...EASTERN TREUTLEN AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Normantown, or 10
miles east of Soperton...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Oak Park, Nunez, Norristown Junction, Covena, Lexsy,
Norristown, Zaidee, Gillis Springs and Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3230 8237 3235 8255 3262 8247 3252 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 201DEG 9KT 3238 8242

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
504 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

GAZ107>109-182130-
Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
504 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILCOX...SOUTHWESTERN DODGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 503 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Union, or near
Abbeville...moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Eastman, Abbeville, Rhine, Chauncey, Union, Five Points, Gresston and
Godwinsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3199 8341 3230 8326 3216 8300 3215 8300
      3193 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 211DEG 11KT 3208 8325

WIND...40MPH