Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
341 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will be
the main weather influence for north and central GA this weekend.
High pressure over the area has broken down for the time being.
This deepening trough should help push a cold front into north GA
late Sunday night. Increased dynamics and increased moisture flow
should keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across
the forecast area. Storms should diminish some overnight tonight
with loss of heating...but have kept pops across the north all
night. For Sunday...likely pops over most of the area. With the
approaching front...have kept likely for much of north GA Sunday
night. Max temperatures expected to be a bit cooler on Sunday due
to increased clouds and rain.

41

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Monday will start off with widespread rain as a stationary front
work it's way through the CWA. While SBCAPE out ahead of the front
will range from 1000 to 1500 J/kg the bulk shear is negligible. As a
result, this system doesn't look to bring any kind of widespread
severe weather threat but there will likely be numerous embedded
thunderstorms some of which could produce strong winds that approach
severe limits as the initial front moves south.

By Tuesday the front will become stationary across central GA. The
area of greatest precip will ultimately depend on how far south the
front sinks. Continuous SW flow will keep afternoon convection going
south of the front, while most of northern GA will receive a break
from afternoon thunderstorms as the flow becomes more WNW and dry
air settles in. Both the front and NW flow will help to moderate
temperatures across the CWA with daytime highs in the mid to low
80s. The difference will be in the RH and the overnight lows. Where
N GA is expected to get a break from the humidity and see overnight
lows in the 60s, south and central GA will continue to see afternoon
dewpoints and overnight lows in the low 70s.

The rest of the long term looks relatively unsettled after the front
pushes off on Thursday. GA remains in a deep trough through the rest
of the week with a weak high pressure system in the gulf keeping
warm gulf air flowing in from the WSW. A greater coverage in
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be likely through early
next weekend.

Vaughn

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR should prevail through most of the overnight. Afternoon cumulus
SCT040-050 should dissipate around 01z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected this afternoon and evening...but could last through the night mainly
across the northern taf sites. Some MVFR ceilings...with some IFR..possible
after 06z. Winds light west to southwest overnight and 5 to 8kts on Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  87  69  82 /  40  60  60  80
Atlanta         71  85  70  81 /  40  70  70  80
Blairsville     65  79  64  78 /  60  80  70  80
Cartersville    70  84  69  81 /  50  80  70  80
Columbus        72  90  72  84 /  30  60  60  90
Gainesville     70  84  68  81 /  40  70  70  80
Macon           71  90  71  84 /  30  50  50  90
Rome            71  85  70  84 /  50  70  70  80
Peachtree City  71  87  69  81 /  40  70  70  90
Vidalia         73  91  73  86 /  30  50  50  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
350 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
350 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and frequent lightning are expected this
afternoon and tonight across north and central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across north and
central Georgia Sunday through Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon
and evening. A few storms could become strong with very heavy rain,
gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
358 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

GAZ068-070-172030-
Lamar GA-Pike GA-
358 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAMAR AND
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered just south of
Zebulon...moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Barnesville, Zebulon, Milner, Meansville, Aldora and Piedmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3316 8424 3313 8414 3304 8411 3299 8427
      3299 8429 3300 8430 3299 8430 3299 8433
      3308 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 235DEG 7KT 3307 8429

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
551 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

GAZ078-089-172215-
Harris GA-Muscogee GA-
551 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HARRIS AND NORTHWESTERN
MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 550 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Green Island Hills,
or 8 miles north of Columbus...moving northeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Bibb City, Ellerslie, Flat Rock, Laurel Hills, Green Island Hills,
Midland, Cataula, Columbus Metropolitan Airport and Fortson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3268 8490 3264 8480 3255 8477 3250 8500
      3252 8501 3253 8502 3255 8503 3256 8504
      3258 8507 3260 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 244DEG 6KT 3257 8498

WIND...40MPH