Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
810 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

A moist airmass remains in place across much of the region in spite
of Elsa clearing the region to the northeast. Dewpoints through the
remainder of the day and on Friday are expected to be in the upper
60s to mid 70s across north and central Georgia, and precipitable
water values will range from 1.5 to 2 inches. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms have developed across north and central
Georgia and are expected to persist through the remainder of the
daytime today. SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg are expected through
the remainder of the afternoon. However, with minimal dynamic
forcing and weak mid-level lapse rates, widespread severe weather is
not expected through the remainder of the day today. An isolated
storm may nonetheless become strong and capable of producing gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. Precipitation
chances are expected to diminish overnight, with only a slight
chance lingering over the far northern tier.

A weak upper level trough is expected to swing through north Georgia
overnight and into Friday, setting up a northwesterly flow pattern
aloft. The surface frontal boundary associated with this trough will
stall near the TN/KY border before reaching north Georgia, keeping
deep atmospheric moisture in place in our forecast area. Multiple
disturbances will traverse the upper level flow, helping trigger
convection as they move to the southeast. As a result, likely PoPs
are forecast across the majority of north and central Georgia by
Friday afternoon. While organized severe weather is once again not
expected, a few storms Friday afternoon could become strong to
severe in the afternoon and evening.

Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be near
climatological normals each day, in the mid 80s to low 90s across
the area. Because of the deep atmospheric moisture, morning lows
will be roughly 3-5 degrees above normal, mainly in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The story through the long term period will be scattered to numerous
showers and storms each afternoon and evening as the forecast area
remains entrenched in a warm, tropical air mass. PWATs through the
period are progged to range from 1.5" to just over 2.0", which is
approaching the daily maximum value per sounding climo.

The upper-level pattern will transition from weak flow on Saturday
to meridional flow on Sunday as an upper low/trough digs across the
central U.S. while the Bermuda High edges over the Eastern Seaboard.
This will be the setup through Monday, with these two features
promoting broad ascent and continued moisture advection across the
CWA. As a result, I am maintaining chance to likely PoPs through the
weekend.

The upper trough will lift to the northeast over the course of
Monday through Wednesday as the western extent of the Bermuda High
spreads further across the Eastern Seaboard. Moisture advection
around the western periphery of the high will keep the CWA in a
soupy air mass. Daytime heating will generate scattered to numerous
showers and storms each day through the remainder of the period. A
few storms each day could be strong with the primary threats being
locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, as upper-
level support/dynamics will be lacking.

Martin

&&

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Primarily VFR ceilings are ongoing across THE taf sites. Isolated
showers and tstms will affect mainly the ATL area taf sites for the
next two to three hours. Scattered MVFR clouds could develop in the
early morning hours after 09z and persist until 15Z. Winds are
expected to be light west or variable overnight and west 8 to 10 kts
Friday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on ceiling trends.
High confidence on all other elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  71  91 /  30  60  30  50
Atlanta         71  87  70  89 /  30  70  40  50
Blairsville     66  81  65  83 /  40  70  40  70
Cartersville    70  86  69  89 /  30  80  40  60
Columbus        72  89  71  91 /  30  60  40  40
Gainesville     71  86  70  88 /  30  60  30  50
Macon           71  90  70  93 /  30  60  50  50
Rome            72  87  70  90 /  30  70  40  60
Peachtree City  71  88  69  89 /  30  70  50  50
Vidalia         73  90  72  90 /  40  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1133 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091545-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1133 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become
strong, capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia Friday through Wednesday. A few storms each day
may become strong, capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
912 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

GAZ045>050-059-090200-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-DeKalb GA-Jasper GA-Greene GA-
Newton GA-
912 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...WALTON...ROCKDALE...
SOUTHERN DEKALB...NORTHEASTERN JASPER...NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND
NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

At 911 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from around
Panthersville to near Conyers and Social Circle, moving east at 20
mph.

  HAZARD...Winds 30 to 40 mph, pea sized hail, frequent lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
           street flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Conyers, Monroe, Covington, Madison, Loganville, Social Circle,
Oxford, Lithonia, Porterdale, Walnut Grove, Rutledge, Newborn, North
High Shoals, Mansfield, Bostwick, Between, Good Hope, Buckhead,
Jersey and Candler-Mcafee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3348 8329 3343 8353 3350 8403 3352 8405
      3354 8405 3357 8413 3364 8419 3365 8422
      3363 8424 3373 8428 3379 8409 3375 8402
      3385 8390 3392 8367 3380 8348 3372 8344
      3370 8341 3372 8334 3361 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 276DEG 17KT 3370 8422 3363 8399 3364 8369

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH