Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
207 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 418 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

As the short term period begins, the center of Tropical Storm
Claudette is entering east-central Alabama and continues to tract
northeastward towards the forecast area. The storm is weakening
and is expected to be reclassified as a Tropical Depression by the
next official update from the NHC. With copious moisture
positioned on the east side of this lopsided storm, widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the
majority of north and central Georgia ahead of the center of the
low. With persistent cloud cover and widespread rain limiting
diurnal heating, destabilization has been mostly limited across
much of the area today. However, with temperatures in the upper
70s and dewpoints in the low 70s, SBCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg
have nonetheless been observed in portions of west and central
Georgia. As a result, a Tornado Watch remains in effect for
portions of west- central Georgia and will remain in effect until
8 PM EDT. Moreover, low-level shear is expected to continue to
increase on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Claudette as it
approaches. 0-1 km wind shear values are expected to increase to
25-30 kts by this afternoon and 0-1 km storm relative helicity
values could furthermore increase to nearly 200 m2/s2. This
environment would be favorable to the development of a few brief
tornadoes embedded within rainbands as they enter the southwest
portions of the forecast area.

The depression will continue to track northeastward across Alabama
this afternoon and tonight, and track through central and portions
of north Georgia on Sunday. The primary threat associated with
this system will be the potential for heavy rain and flooding
potential. In addition to already observed precipitation, 2-4 more
inches of rainfall, and locally higher amounts up to 6 inches,
are forecast through Sunday night. Confidence is increasing in a
northward shift in the axis of the heaviest precipitation, as
guidance has been indicating an area of mid- level convergence and
deformation across north Georgia. Orographic upglide could
similarly lead to higher rainfall amounts in the higher elevations
of far northeast Georgia, as well. As a result, the Flash Flood
Watch has been expanded to the north and east, and remains in
effect until 00Z Monday morning. Rain chances are expected to
diminish on the back side of the low pressure center late Sunday
and into the overnight hours as the storm pushes away from the
forecast area.

King

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

QPF amounts for Monday and Tuesday were trended higher based on
the latest QPF guidance, and 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall
are forecast ahead of the incoming cold front during that time.
Otherwise, only minimal changes have been made to the extended
forecast. The previous discussion follows.

King

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /Sunday Night through Friday/...

The long term forecast period picks up on Sunday night, as the
remnants of Claudette track northeast across eastern GA and
western SC. The forecast area will remain entrenched in a tropical
air mass on Monday as low- and mid-level southwesterly flow
continues to advect moist Gulf air across the area. As a result,
the environment will be ripe for scattered to numerous diurnally-
driven showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening.

A cold front will sweep across northern GA over the course of
Tuesday, though how far south it progresses remains somewhat
uncertain. Continued moisture advection and convergent flow along
the front will generate widespread showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday. The GFS is progging PWAT values of 2.0" to 2.3" generally
along and south of I-20 on Tuesday, with forecast soundings
showing a saturated profile and tall, skinny CAPE -- indications
of efficient rainfall. Total QPF for Monday through Wednesday is a
widespread 0.75" to 1.0" with localized areas of 2+ inches
possible. Locally heavy rainfall both Monday and Tuesday coupled
with wet soils and swollen rivers from the previous rainfall could
exacerbate any localized flash flooding and river flooding
issues.

The aforementioned front (which will be draped somewhere across
central Georgia) will encourage scattered convection on Wednesday,
especially across our southern tier. For Thursday and Friday, the
forecast becomes a bit more murky. The GFS and ECMWF depict an
upper-level ridge centered over TX with high pressure nosing into
the CWA from the west. Looks like ample moisture will remain in
place both days, so have slight chance to chance PoPs for now.

Martin

HYDROLOGY...

QPF guidance has continued to trend towards heavier amounts
further north and east than forecast previously, and the updated
WPC forecast reflects this trend. This forecast presents a wide swath
of 2-4 inches of additional rainfall (with localized amounts up
to 6 inches) over portions of northern and central Georgia, with
the highest amounts located in west- central Georgia, along the
I-85 corridor, and in the higher elevations of far northeast
Georgia. The Moderate Risk within the WPC's Excessive Rainfall
Outlook has also been expanded north and east and now covers the
higher elevations of the far northeast, as well. Because of these
factors, the Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to the north and
east, and remains in effect over the counties included in the
previous watch issuance. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
until 00Z Monday.

An additional 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible from Monday
into Tuesday ahead of an incoming cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Light showers moving mainly across north Georgia with more
isolated rain bands moving across the area through this morning
with an increase in showers throughout the day. Ceilings expected
to bounce between IFR/MVFR with higher CIGs/visibilities expected
as SHRA/TSTM moves across airfields. Winds currently out of the
E/SE near 10kts will shift S to SW to W with speeds 8-12kts with
gusts 17-22kts this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on CIGs/visibility. Medium to high confidence on
winds and weather.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  70  88  70 /  80  50  60  60
Atlanta         82  71  86  70 /  80  40  70  70
Blairsville     79  66  83  65 /  70  40  70  90
Cartersville    84  70  86  68 /  70  40  70  80
Columbus        84  72  87  71 /  90  40  70  60
Gainesville     81  70  86  70 /  80  50  70  70
Macon           85  70  90  71 /  90  60  60  40
Rome            86  72  88  70 /  60  30  70  90
Peachtree City  83  70  86  69 /  80  40  60  70
Vidalia         85  72  89  72 /  90  70  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones:
Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...
Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...
Forsyth...Gilmer...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...
Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Jackson...Jasper...Jones...
Lamar...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...
Monroe...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...Putnam...
Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walton...
Warren...Webster...White...Wilkes.

Tornado Watch until 7 AM EDT this morning for the following
zones: Chattahoochee...Crisp...Dooly...Harris...Macon...Marion...
Muscogee...Pulaski...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taylor...Webster...Wilcox.

&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Atwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201500-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected this afternoon and tonight as
showers and thunderstorms from Tropical Storm Claudette spread
across north and central Georgia. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect
this afternoon through tonight for portions of north and central
Georgia, including portions of Metro Atlanta.

In addition, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon and tonight. The primary threats will be gusty winds
and a few brief tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions
of west-central Georgia until 8 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through Sunday evening
as continued periods of heavy rainfall are expected. Heavy rainfall
could lead to quick rises of smaller creeks and streams, river
flooding, and urban flash flooding.

In addition, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible through the day on Sunday. The primary threats will be
gusty winds and a few brief tornadoes.

There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday through
Friday. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1053 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

GAZ076-086-200330-
Jefferson GA-Emanuel GA-
1053 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN EMANUEL
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

At 1053 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band near Summertown, or 9 miles
north of Swainsboro...moving north at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Louisville, Wrens, Wadley, Bartow, Summertown, Modoc, Blundale,
Matthews, Three Points, Moxley, Dellwood, Stellaville and Colemans
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3263 8222 3264 8235 3271 8246 3276 8243
      3278 8247 3302 8252 3317 8243 3324 8233
      3322 8224 3307 8229 3293 8227 3284 8232
      3280 8221 3281 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 197DEG 39KT 3273 8233

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1057 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

GAZ069-071-080>082-200345-
Monroe GA-Taylor GA-Bibb GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-
1057 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...TAYLOR...
WESTERN BIBB...EASTERN UPSON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM
EDT...

At 1057 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Butler...moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Butler, Roberta, Reynolds, Yatesville, Culloden, The Rock, Rupert,
Redbone Crossroads, Musella, Potterville, Knoxville, Logtown, Salem,
Sandy Point, Horns, Wesley Church, Carsonville and Fickling Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3250 8440 3268 8434 3269 8434 3272 8433
      3274 8429 3276 8429 3276 8432 3299 8425
      3294 8412 3293 8412 3293 8411 3282 8382
      3251 8410 3250 8413 3240 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 218DEG 41KT 3253 8427

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1147 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

GAZ093>095-104-200415-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Sumter GA-Houston GA-
1147 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SOUTHERN PEACH...NORTHERN
SUMTER AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

At 1146 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Clearview, or near
Oglethorpe...moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Perry, Fort Valley, Oglethorpe, Montezuma, Marshallville,
Andersonville, Saint Louis, Whitewater State Park, Meadowdale,
Fountainville, Andersonville National Historic, Clearview, Moss Oak,
Winchester, Bartlett and Miami Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3211 8417 3216 8419 3216 8418 3223 8418
      3223 8422 3227 8422 3254 8399 3256 8396
      3255 8395 3257 8394 3259 8391 3256 8376
      3242 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 225DEG 48KT 3226 8412

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

GAZ066-067-078-079-089-090-200630-
Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Troup GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-
Muscogee GA-
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE...HARRIS...
SOUTHEASTERN TROUP...WESTERN MERIWETHER...SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT AND
MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

At 159 AM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band along a line extending from
Mountain Hill to Columbus Metropolitan Airport to near Fort
Benning/lawson Army Air Fld...and moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Hamilton, Greenville, Pine Mountain, Waverly Hall, Warm Springs, Lone
Oak, North Fort Benning, Upatoi, Ellerslie, Laurel Hills, F.d.
Roosevelt State Park, Mountville, Vista Terrace, Cataula, Columbus
Metropolitan Airport, Baughville, Odessadale, Stovall, Mountain Hill
and Benning Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3321 8479 3295 8468 3258 8464 3225 8492
      3227 8491 3228 8491 3230 8494 3231 8496
      3242 8497 3243 8496 3246 8497 3272 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 207DEG 41KT 3271 8501 3252 8494 3233 8493

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
236 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

GAZ090-091-102-200700-
Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-Marion GA-
236 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE...STEWART AND
NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

At 235 AM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band along a line extending from
near Custer Road Terrace to near Omaha to near Lakepoint Resort State
Park...and moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lumpkin, Cusseta, Fort Benning/lawson Army Air Fld, Omaha, Charles,
Christopher, Jamestown/south Fort Benning, Renfroe, Louvale, Manta
and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3199 8507 3202 8505 3203 8506 3209 8504
      3213 8506 3218 8501 3220 8496 3221 8498
      3222 8493 3224 8491 3225 8492 3226 8489
      3230 8494 3233 8501 3237 8498 3247 8459
      3201 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0635Z 244DEG 28KT 3235 8490 3215 8506 3203 8516

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

GAZ080-090>092-102-103-200730-
Schley GA-Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-
302 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCHLEY...
SOUTHEASTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE...STEWART...SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR...MARION
AND NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EDT...

At 301 AM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band along a line extending from
near Eelbeck/West Fort Benning to near Louvale to Georgetown...and
moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lumpkin, Buena Vista, Cusseta, Richland, Brantley, Seminole,
Westville, Jamestown/south Fort Benning, Brooklyn, Renfroe, Oakland,
Manta, Zellobee, Sanford, Howard, Tazewell, Doyle, Eelbeck/West Fort
Benning, Wesley Church and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3194 8495 3195 8496 3198 8496 3199 8506
      3213 8494 3242 8477 3255 8453 3254 8453
      3255 8449 3256 8449 3256 8441 3261 8441
      3266 8433 3240 8435 3197 8468 3192 8484
      3192 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 241DEG 45KT 3239 8474 3217 8488 3189 8511