Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
407 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated to add the severe thunderstorm watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Warm front looks to be along or just north of the I-20 corridor. The
forecast dilemma for today remains the potential for convective
development this afternoon and evening...and if it will be
strong/severe. Most of the CWA is now in the warm sector and clouds
have begun to break. With some ascent provided by a 500mb
trough/cold pool, do expect additional thunderstorms to develop. It
may take awhile for the airmass to recover after this mornings
widespread rain...so timing should be late afternoon/early evening.
The primary hazards would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. An
isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

High pressure and dry conditions anticipated for the remainder of
the short term period of the forecast.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Dry start to the extended with a surface high sinking into the
Carolina with a broad trough aloft approaching the CWA. This ridge
will be the primary weather inhibitor that keeps the area PoP
free through the most of the extended. Approaching Wednesday,
synoptic pattern begins a slow transition with model guidance
solutions showing a mid/upper level trough deepen over the
southern Great Plains. Past Wednesday however, guidance differs
drastically on what exactly they want to do with this trough. The
GFS progs a very deep single trough developing with a surface low
moving up the Ohio River Valley, bringing the associated cold
front across the area on Thursday Night/Friday morning.

Meanwhile, the European model has the same deep trough developing,
but continuing to deepen into a cut-off upper low that eventually
becomes stacked over Texas. Euro solution also shows another long
wave trough starting to sink down into the Midwest during this same
period, while the GFS is really sticking with one deep trough
system. So in short and to put it lightly, there is a great deal of
model disparity in the long term past Wednesday so went with low
range slight chance pops starting Thursday afternoon, lasting
through and topping out at mid range chance on Friday.

41

AVIATION... 18Z Update... MVFR cigs expected for much of the
afternoon. A few breaks showing up in the clouds with higher cigs,
but do think it will be short lived, especially if sct tsra
around. Best timing for tsra will be during the late afternoon/eve
if the airmass is able to recover. Not confident on IFR cigs
overnight, but added a SCT deck. Clearing expected right around
12Z SUN.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          52  74  51  78 /  40   0   0   0
Atlanta         51  71  52  77 /  40   0   0   0
Blairsville     46  67  44  75 /  30   0   0   0
Cartersville    49  71  46  79 /  40   0   0   0
Columbus        54  75  53  81 /  60   0   0   0
Gainesville     51  72  50  77 /  40   0   0   0
Macon           55  76  52  81 /  70   0   0   0
Rome            51  72  47  81 /  40   0   0   0
Peachtree City  51  72  48  79 /  50   0   0   0
Vidalia         60  76  56  81 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Chattahoochee...Crisp...Dooly...Harris...
Macon...Marion...Muscogee...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taylor...Webster.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1051 AM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251500-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1051 AM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are currently pushing across the
state this morning. In addition, there remains a risk for strong
to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall again this afternoon,
generally along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Swainsboro. The main threats include damaging wind, large hail
and a few brief tornadoes will be possible.

While widespread flash flooding is not anticipated, heavy rain
could create localized flooding especially across south central
GA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday and into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested at this time, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather through the web
by going to weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
436 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

GAZ044-053-054-242100-
Fayette GA-Coweta GA-South Fulton GA-
436 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...NORTHERN
COWETA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 436 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Arnco-Sargent, or near
Newnan...moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Newnan, Peachtree City, Union City, Fairburn, Tyrone, Palmetto,
Whitesburg, Chattahoochee Hills, Plant Yates, Arnco-Sargent, Dunaway
Gardens, Cannongate, Sandy Creek, Roscoe, Thomas Crossroads and
Madras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3348 8490 3349 8488 3349 8486 3351 8484
      3351 8483 3353 8482 3365 8461 3357 8447
      3342 8452 3337 8490 3344 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 247DEG 44KT 3343 8485

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
450 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

GAZ042-043-242115-
Douglas GA-Carroll GA-
450 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND CARROLL
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 450 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Carrollton...moving
east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Carrollton, Villa Rica, Mount Zion, Abilene, John Tanner State Park,
Treasure Lake, Hannah, Bill Arp and Fairplay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3362 8519 3375 8490 3366 8479 3356 8482
      3355 8483 3354 8483 3353 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 254DEG 36KT 3358 8512

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
456 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

GAZ033-044>046-054-055-057-242130-
Fayette GA-North Fulton GA-Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Henry GA-
South Fulton GA-
456 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...NORTH
FULTON...SOUTHWESTERN ROCKDALE...CLAYTON...SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB...
NORTHWESTERN HENRY AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM EDT...

At 456 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Union City, or 9 miles
northwest of Fayetteville...moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Decatur, Jonesboro, East Point, Stockbridge, Union City,
Forest Park, Riverdale, College Park, Fairburn, Tyrone, Morrow,
Hapeville, Avondale Estates, Lake City, Belvedere Park,
Hartsfield-Jackson Airport, Candler-Mcafee, Rex and Belmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3379 8424 3370 8411 3355 8413 3349 8459
      3358 8463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 249DEG 49KT 3356 8455

WIND...40MPH