Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
720 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...00Z Aviation Area Forecast Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

For the rest of the afternoon, temperatures will be well above
seasonal with highs in the mid to upper 70s with some low 80s across
the far south and eastern part of the CWA. These daytime highs will
be around 15 degrees above normal.

A cold front will enter the area tonight and into the overnight
hours. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms across
far NW GA, but given that the best instability remains mostly west
of the area, any strong storm we have will likely enter from outside
of the CWA. Rain and the occasional rumble of thunder will move SE
during the overnight and morning hours. QPF totals will likely be
under 1 inch, confined to mostly the northern tier counties. While
widespread flash flooding and area flooding are not expected, there
is the possibility for some localized flooding during the overnight
hours.

Tomorrow will be a bit of a transition day. Rain should tapper off
just after noon. The front mostly stalls off along a line from CSG
to ATH. NW of the front, temps will be moderated to upper 50s to mid
60s, while SW of the front will see another day in the mid to high
70s.

Vaughn

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

No big changes for the long term. Models in decent agreement on the
overall pattern. Low pressure forming in the northern Gulf on
Tuesday...coupled with a lower MS River Valley upper short wave will
track across our area through Wednesday. One to two inches of rain
will be possible for most of central Georgia Tuesday and Tuesday
night with some locally higher amounts possible. With these rainfall
totals there is some concern for isolated flooding with this
system...but currently conditions have been dry for central Georgia.
Also...there is enough limited instability to keep mention of
thunder in for much of GA through Tuesday night. Models agree that
after the low pushes eastward on Wednesday...the forecast area looks
to dry out through Friday. Strong surface high pressure slides into
the forecast area from the Northern Plains over the weekend. This
high pressure looks to bring quite a bit of dry air into the area.
The dry northwest flow aloft sets up for several days and seems to
suppress the next storm system...forecast for Saturday/Sunday...off
to the south. So have kept low pops for late Friday into Saturday
for the area Atlanta to Athens and south.

41

HYDROLOGY...

Forecast rainfall totals for tonight and through the day Monday
have come down slightly, with the highest risk being in far NW GA.
New totals are around and inch, as the bulk of the QPF will be
further NW of the CWA. However, soils do remain fairly wet from
recent rain and a few river points remain in action stage in this
area. Given borderline rain fall totals and current river
forecasts, no Flash Flood watch is needed at this time.

On Tuesday, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall exists across
central GA. Given the relatively dry conditions that area has
experienced, the threat of widespread flash flooding is low. That
being said, areas that receive high rainfall totals in a short
period or any areas of training precip may experience some localized
flooding.

Vaughn

AVIATION... 18Z Update...

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Winds coming down, generally less than 10 kts across TAF sites,
with VFR conditions in place. Main concern is later tonight as
cloud deck will fill in from the south and north as a front moves
into the area. Currently expecting MVFR across all but CSG, but
can't rule out the possibility of some IFR in the metro TAF sites
early in the morning, though confidence low enough to not include
in TAF. Winds will shift northerly behind front tomorrow, and some
SHRA can be expected early in the morning.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence in MVFR vs IFR cigs in the morning hours. High
confidence all other elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  64  42  51 /  40  70  20  60
Atlanta         61  63  44  50 /  50  80  30  70
Blairsville     57  60  33  49 /  90  90  10  50
Cartersville    59  62  41  51 /  80  90  20  70
Columbus        64  66  48  54 /  30  70  40  80
Gainesville     58  61  40  50 /  60  80  20  60
Macon           63  68  46  54 /  20  60  30  80
Rome            59  61  40  54 /  90  90  20  60
Peachtree City  61  64  43  51 /  40  80  30  80
Vidalia         63  72  48  54 /  10  50  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1003 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-020315-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1003 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A cold front is expected to move across the area late tonight into
the overnight hours with heavy rain showers and a few thunderstorms
along and ahead of the front. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty
winds and frequent lightning are possible across northwest Georgia.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across far north
Georgia which could lead to localized flooding, especially near
creeks and small streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

A few thunderstorms are possible across north and central Georgia
during the daytime on Monday as the cold front continues to move
southward through the area.

Another system will bring more rain and potentially a few
thunderstorms to the area Tuesday through early Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1240 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

GAZ001>003-010630-
Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
1240 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CATOOSA...WESTERN WALKER AND DADE
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EST...

At 1239 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Flat Top Mountain to near Hytop...and moving
southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Ringgold, Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Rossville, Chickamauga, Lookout
Mountain, Blue Spring, Fairview, Chattanooga  Valley, Hooker,
Cloudland Canyon State Park, Cooper Heights, Rock Spring, Rising
Fawn, Noble, Lakeview, Indian Springs, Graysville, Cole City and
Wildwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8498 3492 8501 3459 8553 3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 298DEG 28KT 3537 8520 3486 8605

WIND...40MPH