Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Thick low clouds from earlier this morning continue to slowly erode
across the region as high level clouds move in from the west.
Despite the cloud cover, we should still see above normal high
temperatures this afternoon with most locations peaking in the mid
70s to lower 80s.

Low clouds will quickly develop once again late this evening into
the overnight across much of south central Texas. With southerly
winds and plenty of moisture in place, we will see warm overnight
lows in the 60s across most of the region. Some patchy fog may also
develop and we have included this in the latest forecast. Also, we
can't rule out a few light showers developing along the Balcones
Escarpment given southerly winds around 25kt in the 925-850mb layer.
Cloud cover is expected to remain widespread across the region on
Sunday given strengthening southerly flow in the low-levels. Despite
the amount of cloud cover, most areas can still expect warm
afternoon highs in the 70s. Warm, southerly flow persists across the
region Sunday night as a cold front approaches the far northern
portions of the Hill Country early Monday morning. Some weak upper
level disturbances associated with an upper low to our west may aid
in the development of some showers and thunderstorms across portions
of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Highway 77 early Monday
morning. We will continue to mention some low chances (20-30%) for
this in the latest forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Model trends show the cold front slowing down to a late morning
arrival Monday. There appears to be little impacts on the high Temps
and PoPs as the upstream disturbance should hold clouds up over the
the area just behind the front. Dynamics aloft are expected to be too
weak for any consideration for strong storms. The disturbance
crosses South TX Tuesday to bring a 2nd round of rain chances, but
again with the better chances favoring the eastern counties. By
Wednesday, a low amplitude and broad trough with mainly zonal flow
over TX will make for a period of dry weather with shifty winds and
warming daytime weather. This type of pattern could lead to some
elevated fire weather conditions, but the day to day shifts in the
patterns are usually just enough to make for poor confidence several
days out. A more distinct signal for a stronger trough and associated
cold front is expected for Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  77  58  69  47 /  -   -   20  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  78  58  71  46 /  -   -   20  40  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  79  62  71  46 /  -   -   10  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            61  76  54  64  43 /  -   -   20  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           61  78  59  69  49 /  -   -    0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  77  55  67  45 /  -   -   20  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             62  79  62  72  47 /  -   -   -   10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  78  60  71  46 /  -   -   20  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  80  64  72  49 /  -   -   30  60  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  77  63  71  49 /  -   -   10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           66  81  66  73  50 /  -   -   -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...Oaks
Decision Support...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1139 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051745-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
1139 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
500 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

TXZ188-050000-
Gillespie TX-
500 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Gillespie
County through 600 PM CST...

At 459 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Doss, or 12 miles northwest of Fredericksburg,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherry Spring, Crabapple and Enchanted Rock State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3035 9874 3029 9908 3041 9917 3050 9902
      3050 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 243DEG 9KT 3037 9905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AAT