Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.AVIATION...00Z TAF Package

Spotty shower activity continues over portions of the Southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country region but should diminish over the
next few hours as daytime heating wanes. Have kept mention of VCSH
at DRT until 02Z for the activity. VFR conditions prevail otherwise
at all sites through the TAF period. A few low clouds may develop
overnight into early Thursday morning but areal coverage should
remain limited to VFR standards. Outside of some mid-level cumulus
tomorrow afternoon, development of some isolated showers along with
perhaps a stray storm may be possible around AUS during the late
afternoon. However, confidence is currently too low at this time of
any flight impacts, to insert any mention of convection within the
TAF package. Light east-southeasterly winds trend with near calm
levels overnight along the I-35 sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Latest 500mb RAP analysis places an inverted trough over
northeastern Mexico, with a notable spin on GOES 16 WV imagery.A
598dm Subtropical Ridge remains centered over north-central Kansas,
acting to suppress convection. Despite this ridging, the
aforementioned inverted trough will act to generate isolated showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially over the
Coastal Plains, northern Hill Country, and Southern Edwards Plateau.
An shower or storm activity should quickly wane after 03Z from east
to west, with another mild, muggy, and seasonable night in store.

Thursday looks similar to today, but we'll be on the backside of the
inverted trough, and the Subtropical Ridge will slowly begin
migrating further south yet again. This will act to further suppress
convection, but we will still hold onto 20% PoPs as sea breeze
influences will still be at play. As far as temperatures go, it will
be slightly cooler today, as increased cloud cover in isolated
showers and storms will keep temps slightly cooler, generally in the
lower 90s north and mid to upper 90s south. Thursday will be
slightly warmer and closer to normals with highs back in the mid to
upper 90s areawide, with a few spots in the Rio Grande Plains
getting near the century mark.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
As ridging moves back in, rain shuts off for most of the area with
the exception of some coastal sea breeze showers that may move
inland. The weekend should be a mostly dy forecast with temperatures
on the rise. Highs over the weekend to be at or just above normal.
With the humidity, the heat index values become elevated. Practice
heat safety if outdoors. By Sunday night, a cold front approaches
from the north and should remain north of the area, however, would be
the focus for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
beginning on Monday. For this package, have opted to keep POPs low
until better agreement on how far south the front moves. Increased
cloudiness and some weakness in the ridge should take temperatures
down a few degrees early to mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  96  76  95  76 /  10  20  -   20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  95  75  95  75 /  10  20  -   20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  74  95  75 /  10  20  -   20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  94  75  95  75 /  10  20  -   20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  99  78  99  78 /  20  -   -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  95  75  95  76 /  10  20  -   20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  95  74  95  75 /  -   10  -   20  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  96  74  96  75 /  10  20  -   20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  96  77  95  77 /  10  20  -   30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  94  76  94  76 /  -   10  -   20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  77  96  77 /  -   10  -   20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Brady
Long-Term...Hampshire

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
357 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-290900-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
357 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
820 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

TXZ183-290145-
Val Verde TX-
820 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 820 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Juno, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bakers Crossing.

LAT...LON 3014 10113 2999 10101 2983 10122 3003 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 055DEG 11KT 3003 10115

HAMPSHIRE