Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
206 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

Weak upper flow is allowing convection to develop along the
seabreeze again today. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are moving into our southeastern counties. The airmass
is very moist with PW values 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Storms are very
efficient rain producers and will drop 0.5 to 1.0 inch quickly.
However, they are moving and we do not expect any excessive rain.
These storms will continue through the rest of the afternoon and
into the early evening. Loss of heating should bring an end to
convection and then clouds will increase late tonight leading to a
warm night. The general pattern over Texas will not change
significantly during this period. Look for isolated to scattered
convection over the eastern half of the CWA again Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Brief heavy downpours will be likely again, but
good storm motion and scattered coverage will mean flooding is
unlikely. Thursday night will be very much like tonight. Increasing
clouds and warm temperatures are the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Friday and through the weekend, conditions will be very familiar to
most folks. Temperatures each day will be near to slightly below
seasonal average values with lows in the 70s (a few spots could dip
into the upper 60s) and highs in the upper 80s and 90s. A few daytime
showers and storms will be possible primarily for the Coastal
Plains, but could creep as far west as the I-35 corridor especially
Friday.

After a shortwave exits the Central Plains on Friday, the 500mb
pattern will amplify this weekend as ridging builds and pushes north
across the western CONUS and brings yet another heat wave to that
part of the continent although this time centered slightly further
east across the Big Sky Country. Locally, another weakness in the
flow will develop and will have the potential to close off sometime
during the first half of next week. We'll see rain chances increase
first over northern portions of our area as early as Monday evening
but more likely later Monday night into Tuesday. Elevated shower and
thunderstorm chances will likely stick around through much of next
week. Although the latest GFS backs off on the rain and cooler temps
Wednesday, many GEFS ensemble members continue to suggest rain and
the ECMWF also holds onto elevated QPF. We'll also see temperatures
drop back down several degrees with highs mainly in the 80s by
Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021/

AVIATION...
MVFR ceiling has moved back over AUS, but should scatter back out
shortly. Then all terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and
evening. There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon in the Austin and San Antonio areas. There are currently
storms to the south and east of San Antonio and some of these could
move over the airports during the next couple of hours. Any cells
should not reduce the flying category. Timing in Austin is less
certain. DRT will remain dry. MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop
overnight at all terminals and last until late morning Thursday.

&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  91  76  92  75 /  10  10  -   10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  91  76  92  74 /  10  20  -   20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  92  76  93  75 /  20  10  -   10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  90  74  91  73 /  10  -    0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  96  77  98  76 /  10  -    0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  91  74  92  73 /  10  10   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  91  75  92  73 /  10  -    0  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  -   20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  91  77  92  75 /  20  40  20  40   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  90  76  92  74 /  20  10   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  91  78  93  76 /  20  10   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...05
Long-Term...KCW
Decision Support...Platt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
302 AM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-151200-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
302 AM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
444 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

TXZ173-191>194-208-142230-
Caldwell TX-Bastrop TX-Williamson TX-Hays TX-Lee TX-Travis TX-
444 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILLIAMSON...NORTHWESTERN
CALDWELL...EAST CENTRAL HAYS...TRAVIS...CENTRAL BASTROP AND
NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elgin and others near Cedar Creek, moving northwest at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown, Pflugerville, Kyle,
Taylor, Buda, Elgin, Bastrop, Granger, Tanglewood Forest, Serenada,
Anderson Mill, Austin Bergstrom Int Airport, Windemere, Hutto, Manor,
West Lake Hills and Bartlett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9727 3047 9716 3046 9715 3048 9710
      3038 9704 2986 9750 3007 9800 3087 9762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 150DEG 28KT 3040 9744

AAT