Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
624 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.AVIATION...
The cold front has moved through all of the area terminals and winds
have shifted to the north and northwest. The ceiling at AUS has risen
to VFR while the San Antonio airports remain MVFR. We are starting to
see isolated showers develop along the front. There is a chance for a
showers or thunderstorms to move across one of the Austin or San
Antonio terminals for the next few hours. Wind speeds will increase
over the next hour or so and become gusty. All airports will be VFR
by late morning and then remain that way through the rest of the TAF
period. Winds should decrease by around sunset.

DRT will be VFR through the entire period. Winds will be gusty until
mid-afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
An upper level trough is moving into West Texas and bringing a cold
front through South Central Texas. The cold front has entered our
northern area where winds have shifted to the north. Farther south
winds are still from the east and warm, moist air remains in place.
Temperatures and dewpoints are in the 70s south of about I-35. So
far as the front moves into this muggy air, it has not produced any
convection. This may change as the upper trough axis moves across
the region later today. Rain chances will increase across the area
east of I-35 between about sunrise and noon. Any storms should
remain ordinary with a lack of instability and marginal wind shear.
This afternoon rain chances will come to an end and skies will
generally clear from west to east. Cooler air will move in with high
temperatures this afternoon 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Winds behind the front will be breezy from the north at 10 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will decrease as the pressure
gradient relaxes this evening. Tonight will be mainly clear with
light winds. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be near 10
degrees cooler than today. Wednesday will be pleasant with mostly
sunny skies and warm temperatures just a couple of degrees warmer
than today.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Much of the long-term forecast is expected to be fairly quiet.
Wednesday night will begin the period with light northeast/east winds
with lows Thursday morning reaching the 50s to lower 60s across the
area. Mostly clear skies will prevail through Friday as dry air
remains in place. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the middle
80s to near 90 with with lows Friday in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Warm southerly flow will make its return to the area for the weekend.
This should allow for a fairly quick return of moisture and a warm-up
for Mother's Day weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 80s to
middle 90s with temperatures about 3-5 degrees warmer on Sunday.
Some of the global guidance continues to show light amounts of QPF
Saturday with the initial return of low-level moisture. This would
likely be light rain or drizzle underneath a capping inversion. Will
continue to keep the forecast dry for now as the overall threat for
any appreciable rainfall or impacts remain fairly low. The GFS is
progging the next front to arrive late Monday afternoon with its 00z
run showing a fair amount of QPF for this system. There is some
support with the 00z ECMWF with this solution while the 00z Canadian
is about 24 hours faster. Will show silent 10 PoPs on Monday for now
but PoPs in the Sunday-Monday timeframe will likely be introduced
with later forecasts if these trends continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              80  56  82  58  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  56  82  57  85 /  30   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     83  58  84  58  87 /  20   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            77  54  79  57  84 /  -    0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  61  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  54  80  57  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  57  86  59  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  56  83  57  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  58  82  59  85 /  50   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  59  84  60  87 /  20   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           85  61  84  60  88 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...05
Long-Term...Hampshire

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
359 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-050900-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
359 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
958 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

TXZ193-207>209-223-041545-
Guadalupe TX-Caldwell TX-Bastrop TX-Fayette TX-Gonzales TX-
958 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALDWELL...NORTHEASTERN
GUADALUPE...SOUTHWESTERN BASTROP...NORTH CENTRAL GONZALES AND WEST
CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

At 958 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Martindale, or 7 miles southwest of Lockhart, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Lockhart, Luling, Martindale, Waelder, Staples, Fentress,
Rosanky, Zorn, Upton, Brownsboro, Delhi, Hills Prairie, Joliet,
Rockne, Watterson, Maxwell, Reedville, Redwood and Red Rock.

LAT...LON 2970 9723 2970 9796 2979 9796 2986 9789
      2986 9790 2988 9790 2988 9789 3007 9727
TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 261DEG 37KT 2982 9779

BRADY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1005 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     HAIL             3 ENE NEW BRAUNFELS     29.73N 98.08W
05/04/2021  E0.88 INCH       COMAL              TX   PUBLIC

            TWITTER REPORT AT I-35 AND FM306.

&&

JWZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 AM     HAIL             1 S LOCKHART            29.88N 97.67W
05/04/2021  E0.25 INCH       CALDWELL           TX   PUBLIC

&&

JWZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1016 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 AM     HAIL             1 SE LOCKHART           29.87N 97.65W
05/04/2021  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JWZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1024 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     HAIL             4 SE UHLAND             29.91N 97.75W
05/04/2021  E1.75 INCH       CALDWELL           TX   PUBLIC

&&

JWZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1038 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

TXZ193-209-041615-
Bastrop TX-Fayette TX-
1038 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BASTROP AND WEST
CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1038 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rosanky, or 13 miles south of Bastrop, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smithville, Rosanky, Upton, Togo, Rockne, String Prairie, Watterson,
Alum Creek, Red Rock, Plum, Buescher State Park, Kovar, West Point,
Winchester and Kirtley.

LAT...LON 2981 9735 2991 9746 2997 9748 3015 9705
      3003 9702 3004 9700 2989 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1538Z 251DEG 30KT 2992 9737

BRADY