Dense Fog Advisory 9, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

397 
WWUS74 KEWX 211451
NPWEWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
951 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

TXZ209-220>225-211600-
/O.EXP.KEWX.FG.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-211021T1500Z/
Fayette-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-
Including the cities of La Grange, Pleasanton, Floresville, 
Karnes City, Gonzales, Cuero, and Hallettsville
951 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

While a few spots across South Central Texas continue to report
patch dense fog, like Kerrville and La Grange, visibility across
most areas has risen to 1 mile or more. For this reason we will
let the Dense Fog Advisory expire at 10 AM. More fog is expected
Friday morning across parts of South Central Texas. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
224 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
A weak cold front across Northwest and North Texas is forecast to
slow its southward progress, remaining just north of the CWA through
the day. South of the front this morning, areas of fog are possible
this morning across the Coastal Plains, where it could become dense.
Stratus is also expected to develop along the Rio Grande closer to
sunrise. The fog should dissipate late morning and stratus early
afternoon. Otherwise, warm today with high temperatures in the 80s.
Convective chances will remain primarily west of the CWA this
afternoon, over the Davis Mountains and Sierra del Burro. However
there is a low chance that isolated showers could develop near the
front this afternoon and tonight. The front is indicated by several
models to briefly slip south into Llano, Burnet, Williamson, Travis,
and Lee counties tonight, so this is where we will watch for any low
potential for isolated showers.

The front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front on Friday.
Warm, humid southeasterly flow will prevail Friday, and with the
exception of a few isolated showers across the far southeast CWA the
majority of the area should remain dry. High temperatures continue
in the 80s, near 90 across the southwest CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The passage of a weak upper level trough bringing upward forcing of
an unseasonably moist airmass could generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms east of I-35 Saturday afternoon. Upper level ridging
builds in Sunday into Monday leading to subsidence and no rain
chances. However, cannot rule out a shower or two over far eastern
areas during the afternoon due to heating. The passage of a deep
upper level trough and associated Pacific cold front brings upward
forcing of the continued unseasonably moist airmass to generate at
least slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday. In addition, there is a potential for a slug of eastern
Pacific moisture, perhaps from the remnants of a tropical cyclone
moving over our area that could bring a brief period of heavier
rains. However, rainfall amounts currently appear to be much less
than our heavy rain event of a week ago. There remains much
uncertainty as the GFS is trending toward a slowing and closing off
upper level low while the ECMWF/CMC are more progressive on the
trough with the CMC keeping the tropical cyclone intact over the
Eastern Pacific. We expect the forecast to be fine tuned as we get
into that time period. Temperatures will run well above average for
the latter third of October due to a continued southerly lower level
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  65  85  67  86 /  -   -   -    0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  61  85  66  85 /  -   -   -    0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  64  86  66  85 /  -   -   -    0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            83  63  84  66  83 /  10  20   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  67  90  69  91 /  10  10   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  64  85  66  85 /  -   20   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             86  64  87  66  88 /  -   -    0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  63  85  65  85 /  -   -   -    0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  66  87  68  86 /  -   -   -    0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  66  85  67  85 /  -   -   -    0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           87  67  87  69  88 /  -   -   -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...76
Long-Term...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
302 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-220815-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
302 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.