Areal Flood Advisory 55, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
307 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Convection is growing stronger as an outflow boundary moves into our
CWA. We expect showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread
this afternoon and we have issued a Tornado Watch for most of the
eastern half of South Central Texas. There may be sufficient low
level shear to produce a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening.

The upper level low we've been watching for the past few days will
move into West Texas tonight and then northeastward to the central
Plains. The low levels remain warm and very moist. Rain chances
remain high through the short term period. Beyond the Tornado Watch
we will continue to have a chance for some storms to be strong to
severe with ample instability and deep layer shear. PW values will
also be high and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Models are
especially bullish for strong storms and heavy rain Wednesday. The
most likely area for heavy rain will be the eastern half of the
forecast area. Rainfall totals through Wednesday night will be two to
four inches with isolated totals to six inches possible. The highest
totals will be east of I-35/I-37. The Flash Flood Watch continues.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
As the first upper trough moves away from Texas, another will move
onto the West Coast. This will keep rain chances high Thursday over
the eastern half of the CWA. An additional 1/2 to one inch of rain is
possible during the day. The rain chances will decrease Thursday
night, but not end. The heavy rain threat will end as the deep
moisture moves farther to the east. The second upper trough will drop
down through the west and keep Texas under southwesterly flow.
Shortwave troughs moving through this pattern will generate showers
and thunderstorms at times through the weekend. The high moisture
plume with PW values around 2.0 inches will move back over our CWA
and we could see another round of locally heavy rain over the
weekend. For the start of next week an upper ridge will push in from
the east and force any rain chances to the western part of our CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  77  66  80  69 /  80  90  70  60  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  78  65  80  68 /  80  90  70  60  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  78  66  82  69 /  60  90  60  50  30
Burnet Muni Airport            66  75  64  79  66 /  70  80  50  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  83  67  87  70 /  30  50  10  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  75  65  79  68 /  80  90  70  60  40
Hondo Muni Airport             69  79  64  83  68 /  50  90  40  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  78  65  81  68 /  70  90  60  50  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  80  68  81  71 /  70 100  80  70  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  77  66  81  69 /  50  90  50  40  30
Stinson Muni Airport           71  79  67  82  69 /  50  90  50  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Atascosa-Bandera-
Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-
Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Lee-
Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Short-Term/Aviation...05/Oaks
Long-Term...05
Decision Support...Platt/17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
354 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-190900-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
354 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening, with large hail and damaging winds possible. Very heavy
rainfall is expected with any storms that form. All of South-
Central Texas is within a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe
storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A flash flood watch is also in effect for the eastern half of
South-Central Texas...or along and east of a line from Mountain
Home to Dilley. The heavy rain threat will greatly increase this
evening as storms organize out west and move through the region
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible through
the week, especially Wednesday through Thursday. Thunderstorms
could be strong to severe at times, and there is a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday for most of South-
Central Texas.

A flash flood watch is in effect east of a Mountain Home to
Dilley line through 1 PM CDT Thursday. Daily rainfall amounts of
1 to 4 inches are possible, and portions of Central Texas could
end up with multiple day rainfall totals up to 10 inches. These
heavy rainfall totals will likely send some area rivers and
streams into minor or moderate flood stages.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather and/or flash flooding
to the National Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1135 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

TXZ184>186-181730-
Kerr TX-Edwards TX-Real TX-
1135 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KERR...EASTERN
EDWARDS AND NORTHWESTERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1135 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vance, or 13 miles southeast of Rocksprings, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Barksdale, Vance, Us-83 Near The Kerr-Kimble County Line, I-
10 Near The Kimble-Kerr County Line, The Intersection Of I-
10 And Us 290, Us-377 Near The Kimble-
Edwards County Line, Devil's Sinkhole State Natural Area and Prade
Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9939 2971 10004 2990 10030 3029 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 210DEG 33KT 2985 10010

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1254 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

TXZ186>189-204-181845-
Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-Medina TX-Bandera TX-Kendall TX-
1254 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MEDINA...CENTRAL
BANDERA...SOUTHEASTERN KERR...WESTERN GILLESPIE AND WESTERN KENDALL
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 1253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Kerrville-Schreiner Park to near Lakehills.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Kerrville, Boerne, Fredericksburg, Comfort, Bandera, Ingram,
Walnut Grove, Camp Verde, Bandera Falls, Tivydale,
Kerrville-Schreiner Park, Rocky Hill, Waltonia, Sisterdale, Pipe
Creek, Welfare, Nelson City, Center Point and Waring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2993 9862 2944 9914 3000 9937 3050 9894
      3050 9888
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 219DEG 37KT 2999 9912 2963 9899

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
129 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

TXZ171-186>190-204>206-181915-
Comal TX-Bexar TX-Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-Llano TX-Medina TX-
Bandera TX-Kendall TX-
129 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MEDINA...SOUTHEASTERN
BANDERA...SOUTHEASTERN KERR...BLANCO...EASTERN GILLESPIE...EASTERN
LLANO...KENDALL...NORTHWESTERN BEXAR AND NORTHWESTERN COMAL COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 128 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cain City to near Walnut Grove to near
Government Canyon State Natural Area. Movement was northeast at 50
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Boerne, Fredericksburg, Kingsland, Comfort, Blanco, Round Mountain,
Gainesville, Fair Oaks Ranch, Granite Shoals, Horseshoe Bay, Cross
Mountain, Johnson City, Buchanan Lake Village, Stonewall, Guadalupe
River State Park, Kendalia, Bluffton, Rocky Hill, Kreutzberg and
Blumenthal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 9846 3068 9842 3067 9844 3062 9841
      3057 9841 3056 9840 3002 9831 2948 9884
      2965 9895 3011 9898
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 207DEG 46KT 3020 9886 2990 9873 2962 9883

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
238 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

TXZ190-191-205>207-182045-
Guadalupe TX-Comal TX-Bexar TX-Blanco TX-Hays TX-
238 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HAYS...WEST CENTRAL
GUADALUPE...SOUTHEASTERN BLANCO...NORTHEASTERN BEXAR AND COMAL
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Blanco to Smithson Valley to Hollywood Park.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
San Antonio, New Braunfels, Schertz, Cibolo, Universal City, Live
Oak, Selma, Dripping Springs, Wimberley, Blanco, San Antonio Int
Airport, Canyon Lake Dam, Randolph AFB, Canyon Lake, Alamo Heights,
Windcrest, Bulverde, Garden Ridge, Hollywood Park and Olmos Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for south central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3003 9801 2958 9808 2946 9857 2978 9842
      2991 9844 2994 9842 2999 9846 3011 9848
      3029 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 234DEG 19KT 3009 9840 2983 9836 2957 9847

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
304 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

TXZ207-221-182045-
Guadalupe TX-Wilson TX-
304 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE AND NORTH
CENTRAL WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sutherland Springs, or near Floresville, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stockdale, La Vernia, New Berlin, Sutherland Springs and Zuehl.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for south central
Texas.

LAT...LON 2917 9817 2940 9817 2944 9814 2945 9812
      2948 9812 2948 9813 2949 9814 2948 9816
      2950 9817 2946 9784 2915 9800
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 189DEG 17KT 2921 9809

PLATT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             3 WNW NEW BRAUNFELS     29.72N 98.16W
05/18/2021  E1.25 INCH       COMAL              TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTERS AND LARGER SIZED HAIL ON THE WEST
            SIDE OF NEW BRUANFELS FROM AN NWS EMPLOYEE.

&&

AAT