Areal Flood Advisory 237, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed as a
surface boundary moved over our area. These will slowly dissipate
this evening after sunset and loss of heating. A few showers and
thunderstorms will linger overnight mainly out west. An upper level
trough over the Mississippi Valley deepens into the southern Plains
on Monday. Heating and weak forcing from the trough and surface
boundaries from today's convection will generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Above normal moisture levels with PWs of 1.8 to
2.1 inches and rather slow storm motions indicate a potential for
locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches this afternoon and Monday.
However, most areas will see rainfall amounts of less than 1/2 inch.
Some moderate wind gusts are also possible. Showers and
thunderstorms will dissipate Monday evening with sunset and loss of
heating. High temperatures continue slightly below normal with only
mildly elevated afternoon heat index values.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

A shortwave trough axis located over West Texas pivots eastward from
Tuesday into Wednesday, and should help yield to a continued chance
for isolated to scattered convection across the CWA. The greatest
coverage will continue to focus across the Southern Edwards Plateau
into the Hill Country. The coastal plains may also be a focused area
for activity as well with additional surface convergence from the
seabreeze and any associated outflows. Any heavier cells may produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Lowered the afternoon high
temperatures slightly through this stretch with values generally
remaining several degrees below the climatological average. Expect
for conditions to remain warm and humid at night with the overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70s and some pockets of increasing low
stratus late.

The end of the workweek sees a slow but gradual 500 mb height rise
across the region which should help to suppress the potential for
rainfall, however, anticipate a slight chance to remain across the
coastal plains with interaction from the seabreeze boundary. The
afternoon highs also creep slowly upwards but still looks to stay
just shy of climatological averages. Heat indices also uptick with
areas along and east of I-35 seeing values as high as 105 to 109
degrees. Conditions at night stay typical of the summertime, with
some degree of increasing low-level clouds and morning lows in the
mid to upper 70s.

Next weekend's forecast is uncertain and highly contingent on the
organization and progress of Tropical Storm Grace over the Gulf of
Mexico. Medium range models and ensemble guidance lack much of a
consensus besides moving into the Gulf of Mexico and/or solid
consistency between each individual model run/suite. The forecast
for now consists of low end rain chances and a very slight drop of
temperatures by a degree or two across the region for the latter
half of the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  94  75  95  76 /  20  40  -   30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  93  74  93  75 /  20  40  -   30  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  94  74  94  75 /  20  40  -   20  -
Burnet Muni Airport            73  92  74  91  74 /  20  40  -   30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  97  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  93  74  94  75 /  20  40  -   30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  93  74  94  76 /  20  40  -   20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  94  74  94  74 /  20  40  -   20  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  94  76  94  77 /  20  40  -   30  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  92  75  93  76 /  20  40  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  94  76  94  77 /  20  40  -   20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...Brady
Decision Support...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
301 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-160815-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
301 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and early evening. The strongest activity could produce locally
heavy rainfall with isolated amounts up to 3 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
131 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

TXZ173-190>194-206-151915-
Comal TX-Blanco TX-Bastrop TX-Williamson TX-Hays TX-Lee TX-Travis TX-
131 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Williamson, Hays, Travis, Blanco, central Bastrop, Lee and north
central Comal Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 130 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Dime Box to Bee Cave. Movement was southeast at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Cedar Park, Pflugerville, Kyle, Buda, Elgin,
Bastrop, Giddings, Dripping Springs, Wimberley, Blanco, Lexington,
Round Mountain, Tanglewood Forest, Anderson Mill, Austin Bergstrom
Int Airport, Windemere, Canyon Lake and Lakeway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3025 9669 3024 9674 3020 9674 3012 9684
      3003 9761 3007 9766 3002 9772 2993 9842
      3034 9859 3038 9859 3055 9719 3046 9715
      3056 9696 3054 9692 3046 9690 3046 9688
      3039 9679 3032 9674 3032 9669 3029 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 301DEG 10KT 3038 9684 3032 9793

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BRADY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
219 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

TXZ172-188>193-206>208-152030-
Guadalupe TX-Comal TX-Blanco TX-Caldwell TX-Gillespie TX-Bastrop TX-
Hays TX-Kendall TX-Burnet TX-Travis TX-
219 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Caldwell, Hays,
northern Guadalupe, central Travis, Blanco, eastern Gillespie,
southwestern Bastrop, Kendall, south central Burnet and central Comal
Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 219 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mustang Ridge to near Sisterdale. Movement
was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Boerne, Lockhart, Dripping Springs,
Wimberley, Comfort, Blanco, Round Mountain, Canyon Lake Dam,
Tanglewood Forest, Austin Bergstrom Int Airport, Canyon Lake,
Lakeway, Fair Oaks Ranch, Lago Vista, Bee Cave and Bulverde.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 9774 2978 9733 2978 9892 2993 9892
      3050 9861 3050 9840 3049 9835 3050 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 018DEG 8KT 3001 9764 3004 9870

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BRADY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
222 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W AUSTIN              30.27N 97.75W
08/15/2021                   TRAVIS             TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT (VIDEO SHARED THROUGH
            TWITTER) OF MINOR FLOODING ON LAMAR ST
            BETWEEN W 9TH AND W 10TH NEAR SHOAL CREEK.

&&

OB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
332 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

TXZ187-203-204-152115-
Uvalde TX-Medina TX-Bandera TX-
332 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Medina,
central Bandera and northeastern Uvalde Counties through 415 PM
CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bandera, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Castroville, Bandera, Tarpley, Lakehills, Bandera Falls, New
Fountain, Quihi, Mico, Pipe Creek, Kronkosky State Natural Area, Hill
Country State Natural Area, Rio Medina, Bader and Lake Medina Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2958 9954 2984 9920 2976 9886 2974 9882
      2932 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 028DEG 7KT 2971 9905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MO

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