Areal Flood Advisory 148, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
220 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Latest SPC mesoanalysis and WSR-88D radar reflectivity depicts
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
developing over portions of the Hill Country early this afternoon,
as mid-level ridging scoots westward. Some isolated wind gusts up to
50 mph, in addition to locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning
are possible with any storms that form. The weakening ridge has
opened the door for a weak mid-level impulse to round its eastern
periphery, sparking isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
These will be primarily diurnally driven, ending by 03Z, however,
can't rule out the possibility of a few isolated showers or storms
through Saturday morning.

The holiday weekend will feature a good chance of dodging showers
and thunderstorms, with the influence of the mid-level ridging
continuing to lessen each day through the weekend. Yet another, even
stronger mid-level impulse will move in from north to south on
Saturday afternoon, and along with good DCAPE of ~1000 J/kg, some
gusty winds are possible once again, in addition to locally heavy
downpours and frequent lightning. It will be especially important to
keep tabs on the weather this weekend if you plan to be outdoors, as
thunderstorms are looking more likely Saturday afternoon/evening.
This could certainly put a "damper" on any activities you have
planned for Saturday afternoon and evening. Hi-res guidance
continues to indicate robust convection for Saturday, especially
between 18Z Sat to 06Z Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
are possible and even looking likely for many locations, especially
along and north of a line from Cuero to Hondo to Rocksprings.
Wouldn't rule out a few spots picking up an inch or two of rainfall
from any storms that train over a particular location. Things should
settle down after 9-10pm Saturday evening, with a few isolated rain
showers still possible through Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
With little change to the overall pattern, the area stays wetter and
temperatures cooler than normal for July. Unfortunately for
Independence day activities, that means close attention to radar may
be needed. Increased chances for rain on Sunday will be mostly
limited to the daytime and early evening hours. By nighttime, with
the loss of heating, chances drop off quickly. With that being said,
sky cover will likely be overcast. The rain doesn't stop there. An
upper disturbance passes through the weakness of the ridge bringing
more rain chances on Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday another disturbance comes across the area
trying to cut off over Central Texas Tuesday afternoon. With this
feature in place, rain chances remain higher through the rest of the
week.

As mentioned, temperatures will likely be tamped down almost 10
degrees below normal. No complaints here.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  88  73  90  74 /  40  80  30  60  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  88  72  90  73 /  40  80  30  60  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  90  74  90  74 /  30  70  30  60  20
Burnet Muni Airport            74  86  71  87  72 /  40  80  40  60  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  97  79  96  78 /  20  30  20  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  85  72  88  73 /  40  80  40  60  20
Hondo Muni Airport             75  91  74  90  74 /  20  50  30  40  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  89  73  90  73 /  30  80  30  60  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  88  74  90  75 /  40  80  40  60  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  90  75  90  75 /  20  70  30  50  20
Stinson Muni Airport           77  91  77  91  77 /  20  60  30  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Morris
Long-Term...YB
Decision Support...Hampshire

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
215 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031915-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
215 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Isolated to scattered storms are possible this afternoon and early
evening, mainly before 9pm. In addition to cloud to ground
lightning and locally heavy rainfall, a few storms could also
produce gusty winds up to 50 mph.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered storms are forecast once again Saturday through Thursday,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. In addition to
cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall, a few storms
could also produce gusty winds up to 50 mph.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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