Alert archive / New Mexico / Heat Advisories in 2021

Heat Advisory 3, NWS El Paso, TX

June 18, 20216 counties in New Mexico; El Paso County, Hudspeth County, Texas

NWS El Paso, TX issued this heat advisory at Jun 18, 2021, 8:54 PM MDT for 6 counties in New Mexico; El Paso County, Hudspeth County, Texas. It took effect at Jun 19, 2021, 12:00 PM MDT. It was in force for 36 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 18, 2021, 8:54 PM MDT (02:54 UTC)
In effect from
Jun 19, 2021, 12:00 PM MDT
Expired
Jun 21, 2021, 12:00 AM MDT
In force
36 hr
Issued by
NWS El Paso, TX

Counties Doña Ana County, NM, Grant County, NM, Hidalgo County, NM, Luna County, NM, Otero County, NM, Sierra County, NM, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX

The radar

The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 54 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Santa Teresa, NM at 00:00Z on 2021-06-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Santa Teresa, NM at 00:00Z on 2021-06-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 23 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
4236 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
19 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

083 
WWUS74 KEPZ 190254
NPWEPZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso TX/ Santa Teresa NM
854 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021

NMZ401>403-408-191300-
/O.NEW.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.210619T1800Z-210621T0600Z/
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, 
Mule Creek, Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, Fort Bayard, 
Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Hillsboro, 
and Winston
854 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Temperatures 97 to 102 for elevations of 6500 to 8000 
  feet. Temperatures 95 to 97 above 8000 feet.

* WHERE...Gila Wilderness of Grant County and surrounding areas.

* WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heat as this level is unusual for these
  altitudes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NMZ404-405-407-409>413-TXZ418-419-423-191300-
/O.NEW.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.210619T1800Z-210621T0600Z/
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Including the cities of Lordsburg, Red Rock, Virden, 
Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Deming, Columbus, 
Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, 
Radium Springs, Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, Alamogordo, 
Tularosa, White Sands National Park, Chaparral, Orogrande, 
White Sands Range Headquarters, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, 
Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss, 
Fabens, Fort Hancock, and Tornillo
854 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High temperatures of 104 to 106.

* WHERE...The lowlands of South-Central and Southwest New Mexico,
  and the Rio Grande Valley of Texas including the El Paso Metro.

* WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
BROWN
3 follow-up statements
328 
WWUS74 KEPZ 191009
NPWEPZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso TX/ Santa Teresa NM
409 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

NMZ417-TXZ420>422-424-192100-
/O.EXB.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.210620T1500Z-210621T0600Z/
Otero Mesa-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
Including the cities of Crow Flats, Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, 
Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, 
and Indian Hot Springs
409 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High temperatures of 104 to 109.

* WHERE...Hudspeth County and the Otero Mesa.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NMZ401>403-408-192100-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.210619T1800Z-210621T0600Z/
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, 
Mule Creek, Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, Fort Bayard, 
Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Hillsboro, 
and Winston
409 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Temperatures 97 to 102 for elevations of 6500 to 8000
  feet. Temperatures around 95 above 8000 feet.

* WHERE...Gila Wilderness of Grant County and surrounding areas.

* WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heat of this magnitude is unusual for 
  these altitudes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NMZ404-405-407-409>413-TXZ418-419-423-192100-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.210619T1800Z-210621T0600Z/
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Including the cities of Lordsburg, Red Rock, Virden, 
Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Deming, Columbus, 
Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, 
Radium Springs, Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, Alamogordo, 
Tularosa, White Sands National Park, Chaparral, Orogrande, 
White Sands Range Headquarters, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, 
Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss, 
Fabens, Fort Hancock, and Tornillo
409 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High temperatures of 104 to 108.

* WHERE...The lowlands of South-Central and Southwest New 
  Mexico, and the Rio Grande Valley of Texas including the El 
  Paso Metro.

* WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Crespo
038 
WWUS74 KEPZ 192047
NPWEPZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso TX/ Santa Teresa NM
247 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

NMZ401>403-408-201315-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210621T0600Z/
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, 
Mule Creek, Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, Fort Bayard, 
Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Hillsboro, 
and Winston
247 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Temperatures 97 to 102 for elevations of 6500 to 8000 
  feet. Temperatures around 95 above 8000 feet.

* WHERE...Gila Wilderness of Grant County and surrounding areas.

* WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heat of this magnitude is unusual for these  
  elevations

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NMZ404-405-407-409>413-TXZ418-419-423-201315-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210621T0600Z/
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Including the cities of Lordsburg, Red Rock, Virden, 
Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Deming, Columbus, 
Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, 
Radium Springs, Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, Alamogordo, 
Tularosa, White Sands National Park, Chaparral, Orogrande, 
White Sands Range Headquarters, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, 
Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss, 
Fabens, Fort Hancock, and Tornillo
247 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...High temperatures of 104 to 108.

* WHERE...The lowlands of South-Central and Southwest New 
  Mexico, and the Rio Grande Valley of Texas including the El 
  Paso Metro.

* WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NMZ417-TXZ420>422-424-201315-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.210620T1500Z-210621T0600Z/
Otero Mesa-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
Including the cities of Crow Flats, Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, 
Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, 
and Indian Hot Springs
247 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High temperatures of 104 to 109.

* WHERE...Hudspeth County and the Otero Mesa.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Lundeen
595 
WWUS74 KEPZ 201002
NPWEPZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso TX/ Santa Teresa NM
402 AM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021

NMZ401>403-408-210600-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210621T0600Z/
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, 
Mule Creek, Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, Fort Bayard, 
Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Hillsboro, 
and Winston
402 AM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Temperatures 97 to 103 for elevations of 6500 to 8000 
  feet. Temperatures around 95 above 8000 feet.

* WHERE...Gila Wilderness of Grant County and surrounding areas.

* WHEN...Through midnight MDT Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heat of this magnitude is unusual for 
  these elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NMZ404-405-407-409>413-TXZ418-419-423-210600-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210621T0600Z/
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Including the cities of Lordsburg, Red Rock, Virden, 
Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Deming, Columbus, 
Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, 
Radium Springs, Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, Alamogordo, 
Tularosa, White Sands National Park, Chaparral, Orogrande, 
White Sands Range Headquarters, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, 
Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss, 
Fabens, Fort Hancock, and Tornillo
402 AM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...High temperatures of 105 to 109.

* WHERE...The lowlands of South-Central and Southwest New 
  Mexico, and the Rio Grande Valley of Texas including the El 
  Paso Metro.

* WHEN...Through midnight MDT Sunday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NMZ417-TXZ420>422-424-210600-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HT.Y.0003.210620T1500Z-210621T0600Z/
Otero Mesa-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
Including the cities of Crow Flats, Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, 
Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, 
and Indian Hot Springs
402 AM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...High temperatures of 104 to 109.

* WHERE...Hudspeth County and the Otero Mesa.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Pegram

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Jun 18, 5:22 PM MDT, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 18, 5:22 PM MDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
522 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions with generally SKC. FEW clouds 130-250 will be
possible tomorrow afternoon. Winds less than 10 knots expected
with varied direction. A few gusts near 20 knots will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...137 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will promote a warming trend over the weekend
as temperatures approach record highs once again on Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances will focus over the mountains with light and
spotty rains expected. Temperatures will cool slightly early next
week as a cold front arrives from the northeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
The upper high over the Four Corners region will drift slowly
southward toward southern AZ during the period, meaning more hot
and dry weather for most of us. However, a weak impulse aloft will
drop down the eastern side of the high and pop off a few
thunderstorms in the Gila Region Saturday afternoon and evening.
Little rainfall is expected from these. Meanwhile as the center of
the upper high draws a little closer to our area and as surface
pressures lower, afternoon highs on Saturday will approach heat
advisory criteria in the lowlands. Not quite getting there, but
close. You can blame the long term forecaster for the hottest
temperatures ahead, as they reside early in his forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
If you've been paying attention, you may notice the same upper
high has been dominating our weather pattern through much of the
month of June. This trend will continue through the long term
period as we monitor the position of the upper high. We can expect
some changes day-to-day as the high ebbs and flows across much of
the southern United States, but the theme will be the same: Warm
summertime weather and marginal thunderstorm chances will linger
through the rest of the month.

Upper high will slowly drift southward over the weekend, becoming
centered over southern Arizona by Sunday. In response, surface
thermal troughing will shift eastward over Big Bend and induce
weak westerlies over much of southern New Mexico and far west
Texas on Sunday. This subtle wind shift promoting downslope
warming will push temperatures back above 105 degrees for much of
the lowlands. A Heat Advisory may be needed to cover this threat.
Uncertainty regarding Sunday's high temperatures lies in
thunderstorm potential, as several ensemble models suggest weakly
unstable mid level lapse rates. This instability combined with
precipitable water values just under 1.00" and an easily
achievable convective temperature may be enough to produce some
isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rain cooled
downdrafts and extra cloud cover could potentially bust forecast
highs, which will be something to keep an eye on. The best rain
chances will focus over and near the Gila Region, with very light
rain totals expected due to quite a bit of BL mixing. For now,
leaning toward the hotter solution with lowland highs 105-108F.

Our familiar upper high will progress eastward over the
borderland on Monday. At the same time, surface high pressure
will build into the southern Plains behind an advancing cold
front. This airmass should be strong enough to reach most of
south-central New Mexico and far west Texas by Monday afternoon.
Winds will shift to the northeast behind the boundary, along with
some added moisture providing slight thunderstorm chances to much
of the area. Model timing has improved slightly, with both the GFS
and NAM suggesting frontal passage east of the Rio Grande by
early Monday afternoon. This will drop temperatures a few degrees,
generally returning temperatures to near climate normals. Lowland
highs may even fail to reach 100 degrees on Tuesday, which is
notable considering the weather pattern.

Rain chances will continue to be very hit-and-miss (mostly miss)
into early next week as subsident mid level flow and marginal
moisture parameters suppresses the majority of convective activity
through Wednesday. The best chances of rain will continue to focus
over the mountainous terrain of Otero/Hudpseth Counties (Mon-
Wed) and Grant/Hidalgo Counties (Thu-Fri). This westward shift of
rain chances will closely follow a plume of enhanced moisture as
the upper high progresses further eastward. Both global models are
in decent agreement that while a brief shower or two will be
possible next week, we shouldn't expect any significant rains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper high will slide slowly southward from the Four Corners
region to southern Arizona the next two days, then drift east to
west Texas by Tuesday night before returning back west. It will
still be in the vicinity insuring hot temperatures, especially
Saturday through Monday. A few thunderstorms will form over the
Gila Region Saturday afternoon, then over most of the area by
Tuesday as a result of a back door front and some moisture import
aloft from the south. The best chances will be west of the Rio
Grande Valley, but the proximity of the upper high will limit the
number of storms. High temperatures will peak at 6-10 degrees
above normal on the weekend, with the back door front helping to
drop temperatures back closer to normal mainly east of the Rio
Grande starting Monday afternoon. Except for gusty outflow winds
near storms, no significant winds are expected during this
stretch.

Min RHs: Lowlands 10-15% through Monday then 15-25% Tuesday.
Mountains 10-20% through Monday then 15-30% Tuesday. Vent rates
good to very good Saturday then very good to excellent Sunday and
Monday.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73 104  75 108 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           67  97  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              71 104  72 107 /   0   0   0  20
Alamogordo              70 102  71 107 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft              50  80  57  83 /   0   0   0  20
Truth or Consequences   72 102  74 105 /   0  10   0  20
Silver City             67  97  69  98 /   0  20  20  20
Deming                  67 104  70 107 /   0   0   0  20
Lordsburg               72 104  74 105 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      76 104  77 108 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               65 101  67 106 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            68 103  69 108 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              68  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  71 104  72 108 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            71 102  70 106 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          75 102  75 106 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           68 102  72 105 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                   71 104  72 107 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                71 103  75 106 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande               68 102  71 105 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 55  90  62  94 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero               54  89  60  93 /   0   0   0  20
Timberon                51  86  57  91 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                 56  95  61  98 /   0  20  20  20
Hillsboro               68  99  71 102 /   0  10  10  20
Spaceport               68 102  71 105 /   0   0   0  20
Lake Roberts            59  97  62 100 /   0  20  20  20
Hurley                  63  99  66 101 /   0   0  10  20
Cliff                   57 104  60 107 /   0  10  10  10
Mule Creek              53  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10
Faywood                 68  98  70 100 /   0   0  20  20
Animas                  68 103  72 105 /   0   0  10   0
Hachita                 69 103  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          70 102  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              68  98  69  98 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

01/30/34
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 18, 11:45 AM MDT, 9 hours 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1145 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021

NMZ404>407-409>417-TXZ418>424-191745-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin-
Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1145 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Temperatures will soar to 6 to 10 degrees above normal through the
weekend during what is typically the hottest time of the year.
Heat related illnesses are the greatest threat, especially
Saturday and Sunday. Slight cooling is expected as early as Monday
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms, but it will still be
hot.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NMZ401>403-408-191745-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-
1145 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest New
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time, except for a stray
thunderstorm or two with dry lightning and gusty winds north of
Silver City.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated thunderstorms will form during the late afternoon and
evening hours through the period. Most will produce little
rainfall, gusty winds and dry lightning, though enough moisture
will be present for some brief heavy rain in the Gila Wilderness.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Fausett

Nearby

Heat Advisories in New Mexico, 2021Heat Advisories in Texas, 2021Every heat advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.