Freeze Warning 1, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
208 PM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passing through the forecast area today will bring
breezy winds this afternoon and evening, especially along west-
facing slopes. By morning, winds will be light and the airmass a
bit cooler causing areas along the Tularosa Basin and Jornada
Range possibly experiencing their first hard freeze. Temperatures
Thursday will be cooler, but right near normal for this time of
the year. High pressure moves in on Friday through Sunday,
bringing an increase in temperatures and continued dry weather
this weekend. A system moving north of the region will bring
breezy to windy and cooler conditions on Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday...

The current weather pattern is being influenced by a passing upper
level trough and a surface cold front pushing westward across the
region. The trough axis will be east of the area by this evening. A
stable northwest flow will occur behind it that will maintain dry
conditions across the state through tomorrow. Some upslope flow is
occurring along the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains,
extending further south along the Guadalupe Mountain chain on the
eastern fringes of the forecast area.  This upslope pattern will
generate some cloudiness and patchy fog as well as possibly a light
drizzle this afternoon and tonight.  The scope of this event will be
very limited with no measurable precipitation expected and will end
early Thursday.

The current position of the cold front is straddling the forecast
area at mid day, pretty much aligned with the Rio Grande River
Valley. East of the river temperatures have begun to cool and east
winds are occurring. West of the river, winds are light and variable
and temperatures are warming. The cold front is expected to continue
to push westward to the state line the rest of this afternoon and
tonight, before retreating eastward tomorrow.  After frontal
passage, east winds of 5 to 15 mph will occur with locally windy
conditions and stronger gusts along the west facing slopes of area
mountains.  Wind speeds will also pick up west of the continental
divide toward the Arizona state line later this evening.

With clear skies and lighter east winds temperatures in the Tularosa
Basin and the Jornada Range will drop down to below freezing in the
early morning hours.  Other areas in Sierra and Hudspeth Counties
may approach freezing but only briefly hit freezing or stay just
above freezing overnight. For this first freeze in the lowlands of
Otero County will be putting out a Freeze warning the early morning
hours of Thursday. During the day, cooler air behind the front will
drop afternoon temperatures several degrees back down to near
seasonal normals. The cold front will begin washout and lose
definition during the day on Thursday with a reformation of the
frontal boundary east of the area late Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night through Wednesday...
Upper level ridging will be in place over the Borderland through
Sunday, which means that it will be a quiet and beautiful fall
weekend. Height rises on Friday will help temperatures jump up 5
to 10 degrees over Thursday (lowland 70s/upper 80s). Highs will
fluxuate very little each day thereafter.

On Monday, troughing comes ashore due to an upper low approaching
British Columbia. This will place the region in southwest flow aloft
on Monday/Tuesday, with increasing (cirriform) high-level clouds
through Tuesday. Tuesday/Wednesday an upper level trough axis will
enter into the Rockies. While precipitation chances will remain
north of the region, expect a wind increase Tuesday afternoon,
and especially, Wednesday afternoon as the trough axis ejects
into the Plains. The trough will bring a cool front through the
region early on Wednesday, which will drop highs temperatures a
handful of degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected through most areas...with SKC/SCT250.
From 15Z to 23Z...cool front moving westward across the area
toward the AZ stateline. Sky conditions from Rio Grande Valley
east...SCT/BKN025 tops 080. Slgt chance 3-5SM -RA/DZ BR along
east slopes of the Sacramento Mtns. Prevailing winds increasing
east 10-15G25KT this afternoon east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Easterly wind increase will spread to the west toward the AZ
stateline this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected through the entire forecast period under
a stable northwest flow aloft. A cold front continues to move
westward across the area today and tonight but will dissipate by
tomorrow afternoon. Any fog or drizzle from a cold front impinging
on the eastern slopes of the Sacramento mountains will be very
limited in scope and will dissipate by tomorrow. Easterly winds
associated with the front will be strongest along the west facing
slopes of local mountains. Wind gust speeds may exceed 30 mph but
will be limited to the slope regions. Minimum humidity values will
increase into the 30s and lower 40s across the lowlands on Thursday
due to increased low level moisture behind the front and cooler
temperatures overall.  Humidity values will steadily drop back into
the upper teens by the weekend drier air moves into the region. Vent
rates will be poor to fair for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 45  70  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              38  69  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              36  69  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              31  51  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   41  70  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             37  66  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  39  70  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               42  70  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      44  71  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               37  67  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            39  72  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              38  64  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  41  71  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            39  69  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          43  70  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           32  68  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   36  70  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                41  69  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               34  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 32  63  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               34  61  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                33  57  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 26  67  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               39  70  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               33  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            32  68  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  34  67  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   29  76  33  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              26  70  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 37  66  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  39  72  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 38  70  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          38  71  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              40  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ410-412>414-
     416-417.

TX...None.
&&

04/33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
640 AM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021

NMZ401>414-TXZ418-419-041245-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
640 AM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Mostly clear. Winds increasing east 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25
mph this afternoon and this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NMZ415>417-TXZ420>424-041245-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
640 AM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Partly cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle and fog later this morning
and afternoon. East winds increasing 15 to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph
along west slopes of mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Hefner