Alert archive / New Mexico / Flash Flood Watches in 2021
Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS El Paso, TX
NWS El Paso, TX issued this flash flood watch at Jul 21, 2021, 12:28 PM MDT for 5 counties in New Mexico. It took effect at Jul 23, 2021, 6:00 AM MDT. It was in force for 48 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2021, 12:28 PM MDT (18:28 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 23, 2021, 6:00 AM MDT
- Expired
- Jul 25, 2021, 6:00 AM MDT
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS El Paso, TX
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Grant County, NM, Hidalgo County, NM, Luna County, NM, Otero County, NM, Sierra County, NM
The radar
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -181 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2142 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 6 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 133 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
681 WGUS64 KEPZ 211828 FFAEPZ URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1228 PM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND... An approaching low pressure system from the east will usher in additional moisture across much of eastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico this weekend and allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of Friday and Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will cause flooding to occur across much of the Gila Wilderness and NM Bootheel, along with isolated flooding across the desert lowlands and I-10 corridor between the AZ state line and Deming. NMZ401>408-220500- /O.NEW.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 1228 PM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * From Friday morning through late Saturday night. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture retention. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ CD
9 follow-up statements
822 WGUS64 KEPZ 220324 FFAEPZ Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 924 PM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND... An approaching low pressure system from the east will usher in additional moisture across much of eastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico this weekend and allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of Friday and Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will cause flooding to occur across much of the Gila Wilderness and the NM Bootheel, along with isolated flooding possible across the desert lowlands and the I-10 corridor between the AZ state line and Deming. NMZ401>408-221330- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 924 PM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * From Friday morning through late Saturday night. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ HC
068 WGUS64 KEPZ 221137 FFAEPZ Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 537 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND... An approaching low pressure system from the east will usher in additional moisture across much of eastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico this weekend and allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of Friday and Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will cause flooding to occur across much of the Gila Wilderness and the NM Bootheel, along with isolated flooding possible across the desert lowlands and the I-10 corridor between the AZ state line and Deming. NMZ401>408-222100- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 537 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * From Friday morning through late Saturday night. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ JD
854 WGUS64 KEPZ 221950 FFAEPZ Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 150 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 NMZ401>408-231300- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 150 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * From Friday morning through late Saturday night. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ AB
857 WGUS64 KEPZ 221953 FFAEPZ URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 153 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 NMZ414>416-230400- /O.EXB.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210724T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Including the cities of Mayhill, Sacramento, Timberon, Pinon, Sunspot, Cloudcroft, Mescalero, Mountain Park, and Apache Summit 153 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of south central New Mexico, including the following areas, East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet, Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet and West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. * From Friday morning through late Friday night. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NMZ401>408-230400- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 153 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * From Friday morning through late Saturday night. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ AB
073 WGUS64 KEPZ 230324 FFAEPZ Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 924 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY... An approaching low pressure system from the east will usher in additional moisture across much of eastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico this weekend and allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of Friday and Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will cause flooding to occur across much of the Gila Wilderness, the NM Bootheel and the Sacramento Mountains along with isolated flooding possible across the desert lowlands and the I-10 corridor between the AZ state line and Deming. NMZ401>408-231300- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 924 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * From 6 AM MDT Friday through late Saturday night. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NMZ414>416-231300- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210724T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Including the cities of Mayhill, Sacramento, Timberon, Pinon, Sunspot, Cloudcroft, Mescalero, Mountain Park, and Apache Summit 924 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of south central New Mexico, including the following areas, East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet, Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet and West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. * From 6 AM MDT Friday through late Friday night. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ HC
877 WGUS64 KEPZ 231044 FFAEPZ Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 444 AM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021 ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON... An approaching low pressure system from the east will usher in additional moisture across much of eastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico this weekend and allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms beginning this afternoon through Saturday night. Locally heavy rainfall will cause flooding to occur across much of the Gila Wilderness, the NM Bootheel and the Sacramento Mountains along with isolated flooding possible across the desert lowlands and the I-10 corridor between the AZ state line and Deming. NMZ401>408-232100- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 444 AM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * Through late Saturday night. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NMZ414>416-232100- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.210723T1200Z-210724T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Including the cities of Mayhill, Sacramento, Timberon, Pinon, Sunspot, Cloudcroft, Mescalero, Mountain Park, and Apache Summit 444 AM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of south central New Mexico, including the following areas, East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet, Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet and West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. * Through late tonight. * Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over a two-day period, with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ CD
999 WGUS64 KEPZ 232057 FFAEPZ Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 257 PM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021 .Abundant moisture across the region will combine with an upper level storm system to bring a good chance for scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms will lead to flash flooding. The best chances for flash flooding will be in area mountains and in the southwest New Mexico lowlands. The threat for flash flooding will become less on Saturday for the Sacramento Mountains, but will continue out west. NMZ401>408-241200- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 257 PM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * Through late Saturday night. * Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches over a tonight and Saturday with local higher amounts could lead to flash flooding tonight and Saturday. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NMZ414>416-241200- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210724T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Including the cities of Mayhill, Sacramento, Timberon, Pinon, Sunspot, Cloudcroft, Mescalero, Mountain Park, and Apache Summit 257 PM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of south central New Mexico, including the following areas, East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet, Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet and West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. * Through late tonight. * Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 tonight with local higher amounts could lead to flash flooding tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ TSB
780 WGUS64 KEPZ 241238 FFAEPZ Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 638 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 .Abundant moisture across the region will combine with an upper level storm system to bring a good chance for scattered to numerous thunderstorms once again this afternoon. Locally heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms will lead to flash flooding. The best chances for flash flooding will be in Gila Wilderness and southwest New Mexico lowlands. NMZ401>408-242100- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 638 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * Through late tonight. * Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible this afternoon and into tonight with locally higher amounts and could lead to flash flooding. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. * Hikers and campers should be aware of flood prone areas and stay away from drainages and arroyos. Motorists should use caution in heavy rains and never attempt to cross a flooded roadway. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ CD
010 WGUS64 KEPZ 241932 FFAEPZ Flood Watch National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 132 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 NMZ401>408-251200- /O.CON.KEPZ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210725T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Winston, Gila Hot Springs, Animas, Antelope Wells, Fort Bayard, Hillsboro, Virden, Cloverdale, Columbus, Lake Roberts, Cliff, Grant County Airport, Hurley, Faywood, Buckhorn, Mimbres, Lordsburg, Kingston, Deming, Silver City, Mule Creek, Red Rock, and Hachita 132 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of southwest New Mexico, including the following areas, Eastern Black Range Foothills, Lowlands of the Bootheel, Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley, Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range, Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley, Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin, Uplands of the Bootheel and Upper Gila River Valley. * Through late tonight. * Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible through late tonight with locally higher amounts, which could lead to flash flooding. Additional flooding may occur over wildfire burn scars due to the lack of moisture absorption by the ground. * Hikers and campers should be aware of flood prone areas and stay away from drainages and arroyos. Motorists should use caution in heavy rains and never attempt to cross a flooded roadway. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ AB
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 21, 11:36 AM MDT, 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 11:36 AM MDT, 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 ...Update for 18Z TAF Cycle... .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions expected to prevail through forecast period. Skies generally FEW-SCT090 with TCU and CB over local mountains. Very low chance of TS impacts at TAF sites, therefore no mention. Winds prevailing from ESE at 06-12KT. No reductions in runway visibility expected. VCTS may need to be included tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION...408 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Isolated storms across the mountains Wednesday and Thursday, then scattered to numerous storms expected Friday into Saturday with the focus being west of the Rio Grande. Heavy rain will be the main threat with this activity as temperatures dip below 90 degrees most areas. Scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... Another day of mostly dry weather with temperatures right at or below seasonal average is in store for the Borderland. Upper level high pressure that's centered over the Four corners region is continuing to advect dryer air into the region. In fact, it's shown quite well on GOES satellite mid-level water vapor imagery this morning, with the moisture axis from (roughly) SW AZ to NE CO. As we go into the day Wednesday, an upper level trough will move into British Columbia. This will help "tilt" the upper high just enough for the axis of deep moisture to shift further east, keeping the drier, subsident air over the Borderland. PW values will drop to 0.6" to 0.9" across the area, which is rather low considering the climatological mean for tomorrow afternoon for EPZ is 1.06". Model soundings show a subsidence inversion setting up across most of the region by peak heating, with surface dewpoints in the 40s. This will keep storm chances at bay for Wednesday and Wednesday night. The exception will be the mountain zones where orographic lifting may aid in a few afternoon isolated storms in the Sacramento Mountains and the Gila Wilderness. Temperatures today will be nearly identical to Tuesday, with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s; mountains 70s/80s. Overnight lows will drop in the lowlands to the upper 60s/lower 70s; mountains 50s/60s. && .LONG TERM... On Thursday, upper high remains centered around the Four Corners, or just to the west. Upper low/inverted trough begins to approach, but impacts will not begin until the overnight hours and especially on Friday. Thursday will feature mainly sct storms area mtns, and specifically the Gila Region, as moisture remains modest. Trough begins to push west Thursday night, with scattered showers and thunderstorms potentially influencing areas along and east of the Rio Grande, and western regions. The main focus into Friday will be west of the Rio Grande, likely during the aftn hrs as the trough migrates west putting the region of best lift along and west of the Continental Divide and the Gila Wilderness. All the while, stability decreases and moisture increases. PW values ~1.2 to 1.4 coupled with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s will result in efficient rains. A couple of point soundings confirm moist atm columns. Trough will continue to migrate westward through Saturday (supported by GEFS, ECENS), and depending on exactly where this feature sets up will determine how much precip (re)develops. EC and GFS throwing more heavy rains into western areas. The EC is notoriously dry for this area, so seeing significant stormage and rains "printed" west of the Rio is noteworthy. This is due in part to the trough tracking right through the center of the CWA. Saturday will likely be determined by Friday's convective debris, but moisture looks best on Saturday, and perhaps PW approaching that >90% range. All of this said, the environment is certainly conducive for Flash Flooding, and so a Watch may be needed for Friday and Saturday in the future. All the while, we continue the trend of below normal temps during this period with the influence of the trough, and clouds/precip. Trough seems to depart Sunday into early next week as the ridge builds to the N/NE of the area. This wont necessarily shut things down, especially Sunday, but iso to sct pops look likely in this pattern, and hints of dry air entrainment support a less robust scenario in comparison to the Fri-Sat time frame. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather will continue for most of the region today and Thursday. The exception will be for the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento Mountains where isolated storms could occur today, and scattered storms will be possible Thursday. Most lowland locations will remain dry. Min RH will stay around 20-30%, with overnight recoveries in the 50-75% range. Temperatures will remain at or slightly below climate normals. Max vent rates will be Fair to Good. Widespread storm chances will return on Friday, and will last through the weekend. The higher confidence for rain will be areas west of the Rio Grande River and the northern mountain ranges. Strong winds gusts and flooding will be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 93 71 94 71 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 86 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 91 67 93 68 / 0 0 20 30 Alamogordo 90 66 92 66 / 10 0 20 30 Cloudcroft 67 49 69 49 / 20 10 30 30 Truth or Consequences 91 69 92 68 / 0 0 50 50 Silver City 84 63 87 61 / 10 10 50 50 Deming 94 65 96 68 / 0 0 30 40 Lordsburg 91 68 94 66 / 0 0 40 40 West El Paso Metro 93 72 95 72 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 90 65 92 66 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Hancock 94 67 94 69 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 85 65 87 65 / 0 0 10 20 Fabens 93 69 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 91 67 93 68 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 90 70 92 69 / 0 0 20 30 Jornada Range 89 67 90 67 / 0 0 30 30 Hatch 91 68 93 68 / 0 0 30 40 Columbus 92 68 94 70 / 0 0 30 30 Orogrande 90 67 91 67 / 0 0 20 20 Mayhill 76 54 79 55 / 10 0 30 30 Mescalero 78 55 79 54 / 20 10 30 40 Timberon 75 52 77 52 / 10 0 30 30 Winston 84 59 86 56 / 20 10 60 60 Hillsboro 89 65 91 63 / 0 0 40 50 Spaceport 89 67 90 66 / 0 0 30 40 Lake Roberts 84 58 86 55 / 20 10 60 60 Hurley 88 62 89 61 / 0 0 50 50 Cliff 92 62 94 59 / 20 10 50 50 Mule Creek 88 65 89 62 / 30 20 60 60 Faywood 87 65 89 63 / 0 0 40 50 Animas 92 65 94 65 / 0 0 40 40 Hachita 91 65 93 65 / 0 0 30 40 Antelope Wells 91 65 93 65 / 0 0 30 40 Cloverdale 87 63 88 62 / 0 0 40 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 33/35/30
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 11:23 AM MDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1123 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-221730- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1123 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Gila Wilderness this afternoon and evening, however most of the region will remain dry. No significant hazards are expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly over mountains on Thursday, with a flooding threat over the Gila Wilderness. Thunderstorm coverage will expand greatly on Friday and into the weekend, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected across much of southwest New Mexico. A few storms may become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will make outdoor activities hazardous in the afternoon and evening hours. Flash flooding will be the main threat, especially west of the Rio Grande. Heavy rains may cause arroyos and low water crossings to become impassable, with further impacts to travel due to standing water. Hikers and campers should be aware of flood prone areas and stay away from running water. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should report any observed hazardous weather and heavy rainfall totals to this office and local law enforcement. Dennhardt
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in New Mexico, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.