Alert archive / New Mexico / Blowing Dust Warnings in 2021
Blowing Dust Warning 1, NWS El Paso, TX
NWS El Paso, TX issued this blowing dust warning at Mar 16, 2021, 12:29 PM MDT for Doña Ana County, Otero County, New Mexico; El Paso County, Hudspeth County, Texas. It was in force for 7 hr. 7 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 16, 2021, 12:29 PM MDT (18:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 16, 2021, 7:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS El Paso, TX
Counties Doña Ana County, NM, Otero County, NM, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX
The radar
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 1:27 PM MDT | DUST STORM | 5 S Canutillo, TX | VISIBILITY LESS THAN 0.25 MI PER NWS EMPLOYEE. |
| Mar 16, 2:29 PM MDT | DUST STORM | 4 Wnw El Paso, TX | TXDOT CLOSES TRANSMOUNTAIN PASS BECAUSE OF WIND/VIS. |
| Mar 16, 3:00 PM MDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 57 | 5 N El Paso, TX | SPOTTER REPORTED 57 MPH WIND GUST. |
| Mar 16, 3:08 PM MDT | DUST STORM | 10 Ese Mcnary, TX | SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF ESTIMATED VIS AROUND 1 MILE FROM BLDU AT ESPERANZA EXIT OF I-10. |
| Mar 16, 4:00 PM MDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 2 Ssw El Paso, TX | TIME ESTIMATED. DAMAGE TO CARPORT OR SHED IN NE EL PASO. REPORTED BY KVIA. |
| Mar 16, 4:00 PM MDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 3 Nw Socorro, TX | TIME ESTIMATED. BUILDING DAMAGE REPORTED BY KVIA AT FAMILY DOLLAR. |
| Mar 16, 4:15 PM MDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 3 Ese Fort Bliss, TX | REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; SHINGLES BLOWN OFF. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3793 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 60 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 101 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 208 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
246 WWUS74 KEPZ 161829 NPWEPZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service El Paso TX/ Santa Teresa NM 1229 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 NMZ411-413-TXZ418-419-170100- /O.UPG.KEPZ.DU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KEPZ.DU.W.0001.210316T1829Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.CON.KEPZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210317T0200Z/ Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Tularosa Basin- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Including the cities of Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, Chaparral, Orogrande, White Sands Range Headquarters, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, and Fort Bliss 1229 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...BLOWING DUST WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. For the Blowing Dust Warning, visibility less than one quarter mile in blowing dust will be possible at times. * WHERE...Southern Dona Ana County and El Paso Counties, Southern Tularosa Basin. * WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 8 PM MDT this evening. For the Blowing Dust Warning, until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your foot off the brake pedal. Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive. People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ NMZ410-170100- /O.UPG.KEPZ.DU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KEPZ.DU.W.0001.210316T1829Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ Northern Dona Ana County- Including the cities of Garfield, Hatch, and Radium Springs 1229 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...BLOWING DUST WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Warning, visibility less than one quarter mile in blowing dust at times. For the Wind Advisory, west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Northern Dona Ana County. * WHEN...Until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your foot off the brake pedal. Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive. Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NMZ417-TXZ420>424-170100- /O.CON.KEPZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210317T0200Z/ /O.CON.KEPZ.DU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ Otero Mesa-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- Including the cities of Crow Flats, Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, Fabens, Fort Hancock, Tornillo, and Indian Hot Springs 1229 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, sustained west winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the Blowing Dust Advisory, localized areas with visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust expected. * WHERE...Far West Texas, Southern Tularosa Basin, Southern Dona Ana County, and the Otero Highlands. * WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 8 PM MDT this evening. For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Motorists should not drive into an area of blowing dust. Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive. Damage to trees and homes is possible. People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ NMZ414>416-170100- /O.CON.KEPZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210317T0200Z/ West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Including the cities of Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park, Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon, and Sacramento 1229 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Sustained west winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...The Sacramento Mountains and Lincoln National Forest in South-Central New Mexico. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Damage to trees and homes is possible. People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ NMZ404>407-409-412-170100- /O.CON.KEPZ.DU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Sierra County Lakes-Central Tularosa Basin- Including the cities of Lordsburg, Red Rock, Virden, Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Cloverdale, Deming, Columbus, Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, Alamogordo, Tularosa, and White Sands Monument 1229 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, sustained west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. For the Blowing Dust Advisory, localized areas with visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust expected. * WHERE...Southwest New Mexico including the Northern Tularosa Basin and New Mexico bootheel. * WHEN...Until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Motorists should not drive into an area of blowing dust. Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive. Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NMZ401>403-408-170100- /O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, Mule Creek, Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, Fort Bayard, Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Hillsboro, and Winston 1229 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Sustained west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Southwest New Mexico including the Gila National Forest and portions of the Rio Grande Valley. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
1 follow-up statement
246 WWUS74 KEPZ 162044 NPWEPZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service El Paso TX/ Santa Teresa NM 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 NMZ410-170100- /O.CAN.KEPZ.DU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ Northern Dona Ana County- Including the cities of Garfield, Hatch, and Radium Springs 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...BLOWING DUST WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. For the Blowing Dust Warning, visibility has improved above warning criteria. * WHERE...Northern Dona Ana county. * WHEN...Until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NMZ404>407-409-170100- /O.CAN.KEPZ.DU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Sierra County Lakes- Including the cities of Lordsburg, Red Rock, Virden, Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Cloverdale, Deming, Columbus, Truth Or Consequences, Derry, and Spaceport 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. For the Blowing Dust Warning, visibility has improved above warning criteria. * WHERE...Southwestern New Mexico, including the New Mexico Bootheel. * WHEN...Until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NMZ417-TXZ420>424-170445- /O.UPG.KEPZ.DU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.EXA.KEPZ.DU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.EXT.KEPZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210317T0600Z/ Otero Mesa-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- Including the cities of Crow Flats, Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, Fabens, Fort Hancock, Tornillo, and Indian Hot Springs 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...BLOWING DUST WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, sustained west winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the Blowing Dust Advisory, localized areas with visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust expected. * WHERE...Far West Texas. * WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until midnight MDT tonight. For the Blowing Dust Warning, until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your foot off the brake pedal. Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive. People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ NMZ412-170100- /O.UPG.KEPZ.DU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.EXA.KEPZ.DU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ Central Tularosa Basin- Including the cities of Alamogordo, Tularosa, and White Sands Monument 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...BLOWING DUST WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, sustained west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. For the Blowing Dust Advisory, localized areas with visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust expected. * WHERE...Northern Tularosa Basin. * WHEN...Until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your foot off the brake pedal. Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive. Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NMZ414>416-170445- /O.EXA.KEPZ.DU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ /O.EXT.KEPZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210317T0600Z/ West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Including the cities of Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park, Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon, and Sacramento 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...BLOWING DUST WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. For the Blowing Dust Warning, visibility less than one quarter mile in blowing dust will be possible at times. * WHERE...The Sacramento Mountains and Lincoln National Forest in South-Central New Mexico. * WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until midnight MDT tonight. For the Blowing Dust Warning, until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your foot off the brake pedal. Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive. People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ NMZ411-413-TXZ418-419-170445- /O.EXT.KEPZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210317T0600Z/ /O.CON.KEPZ.DU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Tularosa Basin- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Including the cities of Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, Chaparral, Orogrande, White Sands Range Headquarters, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, and Fort Bliss 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT... ...BLOWING DUST WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. For the Blowing Dust Warning, visibility less than one quarter mile in blowing dust will be possible at times. * WHERE...Southern Dona Ana County and El Paso Counties, Southern Tularosa Basin. * WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until midnight MDT tonight. For the Blowing Dust Warning, until 7 PM MDT this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your foot off the brake pedal. Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive. People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ NMZ401>403-408-170100- /O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210317T0100Z/ Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Eastern Black Range Foothills- Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, Mule Creek, Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, Fort Bayard, Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Hillsboro, and Winston 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Sustained west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Southwest New Mexico including the Gila National Forest and portions of the Rio Grande Valley. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this blowing dust warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blowing dust warning went out at Mar 16, 11:43 AM MDT, 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 11:43 AM MDT, 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1143 AM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
Very strong winds and visibility issues due to blowing dust will
be the main aviation concerns today. Westerly winds are
increasing substantially over the next hour to 25-35KT and gusts
to 40KT. Peak winds occurring 19-23Z with gusts up to 60 knots
possible. Reduced visibility due to blowing dust will drop flight
rules between 18Z to roughly 00Z. Temporary 1-3SM VIS due to
blowing dust most likely at KDMN/KELP/KLRU. All terminals will be
monitored for amendments. Skies SKC- FEW060 with SCT060-080
northward across central NM. Visibility improving after 03Z
tonight, along with a slow decrease in surface winds overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
A small but powerful Pacific storm will move into the area today,
bringing with it strong winds and a few mountain showers. Winds
will increase this afternoon to around 30 to 40 mph with gusts
over 50 mph. Blowing dust will also develop across much of the
desert areas. The storm will exit the area late tonight and be
replaced by high pressure aloft, which should deliver several days
of nice spring weather. Temperatures will warm back up to well
above normal Friday and Saturday with the lowlands likely seeing
some 80 degree days. The next Pacific storm system moves in Sunday
and Monday with a chance of showers and gusty winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
A substantial wind event will unfold today as a strong upper low
pressure system tracks eastward across central New Mexico. Lee
cyclogenesis ahead of the system combined with the arrival of a
Pacific frontal boundary will tighten surface pressure gradients
considerably and produce strong west flow throughout the afternoon
hours into Tuesday night across southern New Mexico and far west
Texas. Current synoptic analysis positions the upper low over Las
Vegas, with a 100-knot jet streak at the base allowing for its
quick progression eastward. Upper jet will move directly over the
forecast area by midday with winds as high as 650 mb available to
mix down to the surface.
Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will arrive along the AZ/NM state
line around noontime today, reaching El Paso and the US-54
corridor by mid-afternoon. Current MOS guidance suggests sustained
winds of 35-40 mph are likely, with gusts as high as 60 mph for
locations east of the Rio Grande. Deterministic model timing of
the trough axis passage suggests maximum diurnal mixing will occur
across the eastern half of the CWA this afternoon. Thus, a High
Wind Warning is in effect for those areas, with Wind Advisories
sufficient enough to cover the threat for western zones.
Blowing dust will also be a concern in the afternoon as winds
increase. As we saw last Sunday, dust sources are expected to
respond today and create widespread hazy conditions across much of
the International border lowlands. Locations near known dust
sources such as the Wilcox/Lordsburg Playas, White Sands, and
Akela Flats will see reduced visibility and dangerous travel
conditions. The due-west wind direction suggests Chihuahua dust
sources (Laguna Palomas/Paleolake Palomas) may be a concern east
of El Paso along I-10. Thus, a Blowing Dust advisory is in effect
for the majority of the desert lowlands.
A plume of subtropical moisture currently being advected over
eastern portions of the CWA will progress eastward this morning,
leaving us with mostly clear skies for Tuesday. Additional cloud
cover due to terrain forcing will occur over mountain zones this
afternoon. Light rain showers and high elevation snowfall will be
possible over the Gila Wilderness today as terrain influences
combine will favorable mesoscale lifting along and just behind the
frontal boundary. However, very dry surface dewpoints and the
lack of any substantial atmospheric moisture should keep
precipitation amounts light and spotty. Currently expecting no
more than an inch of snow accumulations over the high terrain of
northern Grant County and light rain showers elsewhere.
Precipitation chances will end around sunset.
Overnight temperatures will be a tad cooler behind the cold
front, with lows dropping to the upper 20's across much of
southwest New Mexico. Winds will remain gusty into the nighttime
hours over mountain ridges and east slopes, slowly subsiding by
early Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...
Looks like we will finally see a nice little break in impactful
weather for the majority of this period. We start out Wednesday
with a relatively large amplitude ridge aloft building over the
area as our Tuesday wind maker exits into the southern Plains.
The ridge moves slowly east, with the ridge axis only moving over
New Mexico Thursday night and Friday morning. For the most part
Wed through Fri will see clear skies, though high level moisture
does shear off over us on Thursday from a system off the Pac NW
coast. Temperatures will still be just below normal Wednesday with
the fresh Pacific airmass, but then warm each day, reaching
seasonable Thursday with lowlands pushing 80 by Saturday.
Our next weather potential moves in Sunday and Monday.
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all in decent agreement given how far out we
still are from the event. Deep positively tilted Pacific trough
moves onshore of the west coast Friday night and over the Great
Basin Sunday. As the sub-tropical jet and Polar jet merge over the
Desert Southwest, decent sub-tropical plume is tapped ahead of
the trough. GFS shows PWs approaching .75" Sunday but snow levels
should remain quite high and all but just the few highest peaks
should avoid snow. Surface front and upper trough moving through,
Sunday night and Monday mid-day respectively, will promote rapid
drying and ending of precip. Only the last few hours of precip
would lower mountain elevations see some snow, so for now not
expecting much of a snow impact from this system. All 3 models,
especially GFS and Canadian, showing quite impressive precip
totals for March with both models hitting upslope areas of
Gila/Black Range and Sacramento Mtns with .50 to 1.00 inches of
liquid and broad areas elsewhere of .10 to .50 inches. Likely
overdone but there is some hope for a decent soaker.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire danger will take place today as a low pressure
system sweeps across the region and strengthens winds under very
dry conditions. Sustained west winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected
today, with the strongest winds east of the Rio Grande late
afternoon. Winds gusts of 50 to 60 mph will also be possible along
a passing cold front this afternoon. Strong winds will promote
rapid fire spread in locations of susceptible fuels. Relative
humidity will fall to 8-15% across much of the desert lowlands
today, with minimum RH remaining above critical thresholds over
the Gila Region due to isolated precipitation and cooler
temperatures. Red Flag in effect for a lowland zones, with RH
keeping the mountain zones out at this time.
Winds will be much lighter Wednesday into next weekend, with
continued dry weather. A subtle wind shift to the southeast is
expected Thur/Fri with speeds below 15 mph and Fair smoke
ventilation. RH will continue to drop to 10 to 15% through next
Saturday. Our next chance of wetting precipitation begins next
Sun/Mon with the possibility of widespread rains helping to
alleviate drought conditions.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 39 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 36 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 32 66 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 32 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 22 44 23 50 / 10 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 33 68 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 26 58 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 28 67 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 26 64 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 39 68 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 33 67 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 37 68 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 33 60 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 38 68 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 35 67 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 35 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 29 66 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 29 68 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 33 67 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 32 66 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 28 57 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 25 54 25 59 / 10 0 0 0
Timberon 25 54 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 26 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 29 65 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 29 66 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 22 59 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 25 60 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 24 62 24 68 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 24 59 21 65 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 27 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 27 66 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 27 65 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 29 68 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 30 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ404>407-
409>413-417.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ411-413>417.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ111-112.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ401>410-412.
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.
&&
99/99/99Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 16, 5:34 AM MDT, 6 hours 55 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 534 AM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-171145- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 534 AM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Strong winds will develop today as an upper low tracks across central New Mexico. West winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected along with wind gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur across far west Texas and local mountain passes. Cross winds could make vehicle travel dangerous, especially for high-profile vehicles along north/south highways. Lightweight objects will be displaced or damaged if left unsecured. Widespread blowing dust may reduce visibility and pose a risk to travel. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Scattered rain showers are possible next Monday and may create temporary slick roadways. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Dennhardt
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 16, 11:27 AM MDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1127 AM MDT TUE MAR 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1125 AM DUST STORM 3 SSE COLUMBUS 31.78N 107.63W
03/16/2021 LUNA NM OTHER FEDERAL
0.5 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED AT COLUMBUS - PALOMAS
BORDER PATROL CROSSING
&&
EVENT NUMBER EPZ2100028
BROWNLocal storm report, Mar 16, 12:03 PM MDT, 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1203 PM MDT TUE MAR 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W MESILLA 32.27N 106.92W
03/16/2021 M53 MPH DONA ANA NM AWOS
AWOS STATION KLRU LAS CRUCES AWOS.
&&Local storm report, Mar 16, 12:05 PM MDT, 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1205 PM MDT TUE MAR 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1140 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 S HACHITA 31.70N 108.34W
03/16/2021 M66 MPH HIDALGO NM MESONET
MESONET STATION HHRN5 HACHITA VALLEY.
&&Local storm report, Mar 16, 12:06 PM MDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1206 PM MDT TUE MAR 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E DEMING 32.27N 107.72W
03/16/2021 M53 MPH LUNA NM ASOS
ASOS STATION KDMN DEMING ASOS.
&&Local storm report, Mar 16, 12:11 PM MDT, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1211 PM MDT TUE MAR 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1130 AM DUST STORM 5 E DEMING 32.27N 107.67W
03/16/2021 LUNA NM PUBLIC
E0.25 MI VISIBILITY BASED ON REPORT FROM
SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&
BROWNNearby
Blowing Dust Warnings in New Mexico, 2021Blowing Dust Warnings in Texas, 2021Every blowing dust warning in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.