Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in far NW MO as
isentropic ascent and the exit region of the low level jet meet
ahead of the front. This activity is expected to continue through
the afternoon. We are also keeping our eyes on an approaching
trough making its way into NW TX and OK through the afternoon.
This trough amplifies lift and instability as it moves eastward
triggering more widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout
the region late this evening. The trough then shifts to a NE track
passing though central MO bringing rain to much of the region
overnight Sunday into Monday. Precipitable water values between
1.5"-1.8" present a good opportunity for efficient rainfall.
Around 1"-2" of rainfall is expected for much of the region minus
far NW MO where the front may already pass before the axis of the
trough reaches the region. Flash flooding concern remain limited
with dry soil conditions; however, some elevated runoff into small
creeks and streams is possible. Rain is expected to stick around
through a little after midday for the KC metro and areas south
while areas north of I-70 and east of I-35 will continue to see
scattered showers through Monday evening.

An active pattern continues through the coming week. A new leeward
trough develops off the eastern Rockies Tuesday. It quickly deepens
as it treks across the central CONUS. This system draws up an
expansive fetch of Gulf moisture forming a pretty stark moisture
boundary across KS. This boundary combined with isentropic ascent
ahead of it creates another favorable environment of widespread rain.
Instability is a little lacking, but there is certainly enough
moisture load and catalyst from the boundary that widespread rain
and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible. PWAT values around
1.5" indicate the potential for some heavy efficient downpours once
again. Timing has remained fairly consistent between models with
rain beginning late afternoon/early evening gradually overspreading
the region overnight. Rain is expected to linger through the day
Wednesday before the dry air pushes in during the late afternoon and
evening. Long range guidance continues to keep the pattern active
still hinting at another wave with rain towards Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved into the TAF
sites. This is expected to continue over the next several hours.
This activity should diminish around midnight, however more
persistent rainfall is expected to move in after that. Ceilings
will be decreasing to near IFR which is expected to continue into
the morning hours. Some improvement is expected by mid-morning
Monday when ceilings are expected to return to MVFR with rain
coming to an end as well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...HB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
506 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
506 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 A few strong storms may be possible tonight along and south of
 Interstate 70. Gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain will
 be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Strong to isolated severe storms may be possible Tuesday night into
 Wednesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
558 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MOZ007-016-102330-
Putnam MO-Sullivan MO-
558 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Sullivan and central Putnam Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 558 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Milan, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Unionville, Pollock and Lemons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 9282 4028 9321 4033 9335 4058 9309
      4059 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 225DEG 34KT 4031 9325

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Blair

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MOZ013-110015-
De Kalb MO-
643 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern DeKalb
County through 715 PM CDT...

At 643 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Osborn, or 7 miles south of Maysville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Weatherby, Amity, Fairport and
Santa Rosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9420 3986 9421 3975 9432 3975 9451
      4000 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 221DEG 42KT 3978 9439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Blair