Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

The main concern in the short term will continue to be the dangerous
heat however, today should be the last day of heat advisory
criteria. Friday and Saturday do continue to look to bring well
above normal temperatures however, heat indices will be a few
degrees cooler. This will continue to be monitored for a possible
extension by the incoming shift.

Today the upper level ridge (which has been the main catalyst for
this stretch of heat) axis will move directly over the CWA. This
will keep the area dry with temperatures again rising into the mid
90s with heat indices of 101 to 107. Tonight, models are develop a
MCS north of the CWA on the northern periphery of the upper level
ridge. Some of the model want to have the MCS drop south into the
ridge however, it seems more likely to stay north and east of the
CWA. That being said did keep slight in the northeastern CWA
provided storms are able to make it this far south. Friday a upper
level shortwave will move through the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest shunting the upper level ridge axis to the east. Subtle
height falls aloft coupled with increased southwest surface winds
are expected to usher in slightly drier air. Although temperatures
are only expected to be a degree or two cooler than Thursday with
highs in the low to mid 90s, with dewpoints falling from the low to
mid 70s to the upper 60 to near 70 should keep heat indices 3 to 5
degrees cooler in the upper 90s to low 100s. Similar conditions are
expected on Saturday with the area remaining under the influence of
the upper level ridge.

Saturday night, a strong upper level trough moves through the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing a weak, slow moving,
cold front into the forecast area. This will bring storms to the
area late Saturday night into Sunday. Weak convergence, weak forcing
and weak shear coupled with unfavorable timing of the front will
keep any severe potential low. temperatures on Sunday will cool to
the mid 80s to near 90. Shortwaves moving on zonal flow aloft on
Monday and Tuesday with continue storm chances with highs remaining
in the mid to upper 90s. We may also need to keep an eye on a
disturbance in the Caribbean Sea as models have been forming a
tropical system here which may effect the Gulf Coast early next
week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the prevailing period.
Southerly winds under 12kts and just a few scattered cu and/or
high clouds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...PietrychaP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
455 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
455 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Patchy dense fog is possible through central Missouri this morning.
 Fog will dissipate soon after sunrise.

 Hot and humid conditions are expected across the area this
 afternoon as heat indices climb into the 101 to 107 range.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Hot and humid conditions will linger into Friday.

 Showers and storms are possible Sunday. The threat of severe weather
 is low.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

MOZ008-262100-
Schuyler MO-
329 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Schuyler County through 400 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Downing, or 8 miles southeast of Lancaster, moving southeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Downing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9245 4047 9254 4054 9240 4051 9235
      4035 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 313DEG 8KT 4045 9240

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Kurtz