Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
323 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2021

Message of the Day

- Isolated showers and storms continue this afternoon and evening,
mainly along and south of the Missouri River. No severe weather is
expected, but could see some gusty winds.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible again tomorrow afternoon
and evening, mainly east of I-35. No severe weather is expected, but
could see some gusty winds.

- On and off scattered storms are expected Thursday afternoon
through Friday night. There is potential for a few storms to become
strong.

Discussion

Diurnal heating and an upper level shortwave trough are helping
isolated showers and storms develop this afternoon. This activity
should mainly stay along and south of the Missouri River and will
continue through sunset. Deep layer shear is less than 20 kts, so
anything that develops will go up and down fairly quickly with
little organization. Severe storms are not expected, but could see
some gusty winds (30-40 mph), especially as storms collapse. The
same scenario is expected for Wednesday afternoon and evening,
except the best location for isolated showers and storms is going
to be mainly east of I-35.

Thursday, a warm front will push north bringing another chance for
storms, mainly south of HWY 36. Storm chances will continue Thursday
night through Friday night as a low pressure system gradually moves
east through the Midwest. This will be the best chance for storms
across the area this week. Severe weather is not anticipated right
now, but there is potential for a few strong storms.

Temperature-wise, expect highs in the mid to upper 80s to near 90
over the weekend, with lows in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2021

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. Diurnal cu has
started to develop and will continue to spread across the region
this afternoon. A few isolated storms will likely develop this
afternoon, mainly south of I-70. KC terminals should remain dry.
The clouds and storm chances will diminish once the sun goes down.
Overnight hours will be quiet.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Atkins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
455 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
455 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Another mostly dry day is expected across the area. There is a
 slight chance for some isolated, non-severe storms this afternoon
 for areas near the KC Metro and south of I-70. No weather concerns
 are present at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Wednesday also holds another chance for some isolated, non-severe
 thunderstorms in the afternoon with no major weather concerns. The
 next best chance for widespread rain still lies late Thursday into
 Friday. There is no severe weather concerns present at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

MOZ044-045-054-172115-
Johnson MO-Pettis MO-Henry MO-
330 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Pettis
and southeastern Johnson Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 330 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Green Ridge, or near Windsor. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Windsor and Green Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 9358 3870 9357 3869 9328 3853 9329
      3851 9329 3851 9351 3850 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 079DEG 2KT 3859 9343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
404 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

MOZ044-172145-
Johnson MO-
404 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Johnson
County through 445 PM CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whiteman Afb, or near Whiteman Air Force Base, moving northwest at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Whiteman Air Force Base, Leeton and Whiteman Afb.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9372 3873 9350 3870 9350 3870 9351
      3856 9351 3856 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 118DEG 8KT 3863 9355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
441 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

MOZ038-044-172215-
Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-
441 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Lafayette and north central Johnson Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
just west of Fayetteville, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Odessa and Fayetteville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 9371 3879 9376 3881 9397 3901 9394
      3895 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 121DEG 11KT 3888 9382

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
547 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

MOZ043-053-172330-
Bates MO-Cass MO-
547 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Cass and
north central Bates Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 546 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Archie, or 7 miles north of Adrian, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisonville, Garden City, Archie, East Lynne, Lake Annette and Gunn
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9421 3843 9442 3868 9452 3869 9416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 171DEG 13KT 3850 9433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BMW