Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
439 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 438 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021

Key Messages:

- Ongoing afternoon heat index values between 105 and 110 will
persist through several more hours before cooling this evening.

- Heat index readings near 105 will occur south/west of a cold front
Friday afternoon.

- Multiple days of heat this week will lead to a dangerous
cumulative effect of potential heat-related illness on Friday
afternoon. Therefore, an excessive heat warning has been issued.

Main focus this afternoon and evening will be ongoing dangerous heat
indicies, followed by a chance for scattered thunderstorms along a
sagging southward cold front. Best window for thunderstorms is
expected between 5pm and midnight. Deep layer flow is seasonably
weak, with moderate instability of 2000-3000 J/kg. A short window of
2-4 hours of robust convection is possible, where storms may become
briefly strong to severe, with gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall the primary threat.

Thereafter, scattered non-severe convection will be possible along
and post-frontal overnight into Friday. Heat concerns will remain
Friday afternoon in areas south of the cold front, and with multiple
days of heat this week, will lead to a dangerous cumulative effect
of potential heat-related illness. Therefore, an excessive heat
warning has been issued. By Friday evening, an MCS is expected to
develop upstream over eastern Nebraska, and drop southeastward into
portions of northern Missouri overnight. The complex will likely be
in a weakening phase upon its arrival to the CWA, although a few
areas of strong wind gusts will remain possible. Otherwise,
widespread precipitation is expected Saturday morning across the
northeast 2/3rds of the CWA. Temperatures will cool this weekend
into much of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021

VFR conditions through the period. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to remain to the north of terminal space during the
forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     021>025-030>033-038>040-046.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ020-028-029-
     037-043>045-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
507 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
507 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Heat and humidity will create heat index values of 105 to 110 F
 this afternoon.

 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
 through the evening north of Interstate 70. Strong winds and hail
 will be the primary threat with any storm that develops.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 On Friday, hot and humid conditions are expected south of a line
 from the KC metro to Sedalia Missouri. Heat index values south and
 west of this line could approach 105 F. A Heat Advisory is in effect
 for this area.

 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and behind the
 front late Friday. A few of these storms could become strong to
 marginally severe.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
526 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

MOZ006-015-016-292315-
Grundy MO-Mercer MO-Sullivan MO-
526 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spickard, or 14 miles north of Trenton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spickard, Galt, Humphreys, Tindall, Harris, Osgood, Modena and Mill
Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4029 9371 4039 9363 4032 9325 4013 9331
      4005 9353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 322DEG 9KT 4028 9352

Kurtz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

MOZ006-015-016-300000-
Grundy MO-Mercer MO-Sullivan MO-
608 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GRUNDY...SOUTHERN MERCER
AND CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 607 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Spickard to 8 miles north of Galt to 7
miles northwest of Milan. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Milan, Spickard, Galt, Humphreys, Tindall, Harris, Osgood and Reger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 9286 4018 9285 4011 9311 4012 9361
      4024 9376 4028 9376 4030 9347 4034 9312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 285DEG 12KT 4026 9365 4025 9340 4026 9324

Kurtz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

MOZ016-017-024-300030-
Adair MO-Linn MO-Sullivan MO-
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR...NORTHEASTERN
LINN AND EASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 641 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Milan, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milan, Green City and Winigan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4014 9270 4003 9281 4004 9285 4000 9285
      3996 9302 4027 9317 4032 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 323DEG 12KT 4021 9305

Kurtz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
724 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

MOZ005-014-015-023-024-300115-
Grundy MO-Daviess MO-Livingston MO-Linn MO-Harrison MO-
724 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...WESTERN
LINN...SOUTHERN GRUNDY...SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND NORTHERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bethany to near Gilman City to Trenton to
9 miles southwest of Galt to 6 miles northwest of Linneus. Movement
was south at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Trenton, Brookfield, Jamesport, Meadville, Gilman City,
Laclede, Linneus, Wheeling, Chula, Laredo, Coffey, Jameson, Brimson
and Spring Hill.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 82 and
90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3998 9403 3987 9376 3982 9355 3977 9336
      3974 9304 3995 9319 4007 9348 4014 9365
      4021 9384 4025 9409
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 342DEG 9KT 4021 9401 4014 9381 4007 9363 4000
9346 3993 9328

Kurtz