Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 431 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2021

A boundary is very slowly making its way SE across far NW MO.
Packets of instability combined with short waves crossing the
boundary and isentropic ascent are triggering showers and
thunderstorms across the front. Scattered storms are expected
across north central MO throughout the early morning hours. More
substantial rain to our west continues to slowly make its way
toward the area.

For the past couple of days, model guidance has suggested that the
interactions between the relatively stationary surface boundary and
mid to upper level atmospheric waves will play a crucial factor in
the behavior of showers and thunderstorms today. Higher resolution
CAM guidance has suggested that these interactions will steadily
kick the boundary along while simultaneously catalyzing further
thunderstorm development. These impulses also promote the
organization of storms into mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs)
emanating eastward from the boundary traversing the region. This
boundary will take most of the day to track across the region eventually
making its way toward the I-44 corridor toward the weekend.

The biggest hazard we are keeping our eyes on is flooding. PWAT
values around 1.5-2 inches across the region certainly come close to
regional flash flood guidance; however, uncertainties remain on
rainfall efficiency as well as the duration and possibility of storms
training. Creeks and streams are expected to rise especially if a
basin experiences a heavy downpour(s). Be aware of flooding
potentials in your area and remember to turn around, don't drown.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger through
the Friday and into the weekend. Some models suggest that the front
could back build Friday bringing more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. For the weekend, temperatures in the 80s with good
solar heating may destabilize the atmosphere enough to cause
sporadic isolated shower and thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2021

Scattered rain showers with isolated thunder will continue through
much of the afternoon and gradually diminish this evening as a
stationary front across NW MO slowly sags southward through the
TAF period. May see an uptick in thunder after 20Z as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west and lift increases over the
region. A few terminals may see showers linger into Friday
morning. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will reduce
visibilities down to 1-3 miles before returning to MVFR and VFR.
Ceilings will vary considerably through the period, generally
bouncing between MVFR and VFR with periods of IFR or lower the
first half of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...PietrychaP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
134 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161845-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
134 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

 Thunderstorms possible this afternoon after 4pm. A few will have
 the potential to become strong with gusty winds. Heavy rainfall
 will also be possible, potentially leading to localized flooding of
 creeks and streams.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Rain and thunderstorm chances continue into Friday for portions of
 the area, particularly along and south of Interstate 70.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
323 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

MOZ001>003-011-160000-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Holt-
Including the cities of Tarkio, Rock Port, Fairfax, Maryville,
Grant City, Mound City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, and Craig
323 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...Funnel clouds possible across northwest Missouri this afternoon...

Several reported sightings of funnel clouds along I-29 in Holt and
Atchison County, MO this afternoon. These funnel clouds are in
association with small showers and thunderstorms near that
location.

Atmospheric conditions exist that favor the possible formation of
weak circulations on a pre-existing boundary. Some of these
circulations are occurring underneath developing showers and
thunderstorms, where a funnel cloud may develop. Once the rain
begins, the funnel cloud usually dissipates.

The funnels are expected to be brief in nature and not touchdown;
however, in rare instances they have been known to touchdown.
Stay alert and be prepared to move to a safe shelter if a funnel
cloud approaches the ground.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
334 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

MOZ046-152115-
Cooper MO-
334 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COOPER COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 333 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pilot Grove, or 10 miles southwest of Boonville, moving east at 45
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Boonville, Pilot Grove, Bunceton, Prairie Home and Wooldridge.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 95 and
114.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9260 3868 9262 3868 9274 3875 9298
      3893 9295 3897 9262 3897 9256 3892 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 275DEG 38KT 3884 9286

Klaus