Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
611 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2021

Key messages:

- One last hot and humid day (for this stretch anyway) before a
  cold front moves through tonight, cooling things down through
  the middle of the week.

- Severe storms are possible late this afternoon and this evening
  as that cold front moves through the area.

Detailed Discussion...

As of 0730Z, the backbuilding MCS and the MCS moving east out of KS
into NW MO, have merged with widespread thunderstorm activity from NW
MO that will spread across northern MO through the remainder of the
overnight hours. The severe threat has diminished somewhat. But
there remains 2000-3000 J/KG of MUCAPE with marginal shear across
northern MO. So additional strong updrafts with some hail potential
will continue to be a hazard this morning, along with strong winds.
This combined MCS will move northeast of the forecast area by
late this morning. Cloud cover may inhibit or delay warming up
today but by this afternoon, it looks like temperatures will still
be able to climb into the middle 90s across. With similar
humidity to yesterday, heat index values will again climb into
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area late this
afternoon into this evening. Given the the hot and humid air mass
present over the area, there will be ample instability for potential
storms to work with. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse
rates and with deep-layer shear of 30+ kts, there is potential
for large hail. Damaging winds will also be hazard with these
storms given steep low-level lapse rates.

Much cooler temperatures will move into the area behind this
front with an area of high pressure settling across the middle of
the country. This cooler weather will be enhanced by another area
of showers/storms across the southern half of the forecast area on
Monday, associated with another shortwave trough moving through
the larger scale pattern. The end result of this is that highs on
Monday will top out in the low to mid 70s. The cooler conditions
will persist into the middle of the week with temperatures
climbing back into the upper 80s by Wednesday. As the cooler high
pressure shifts to the east, southerly flow will resume and by
Thursday, we'll see dewpoints climb back into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Temperatures will climb back into the 90s so we'll see
heat indices back into the upper 90s to near 100. This round of
heat looks short-lived as another broad upper trough pushes a
front through the area Friday into Saturday. It looks like the
best chances for storms will be Thursday night into Friday morning
as a strong low-level jet noses into the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2021

VFR conditions with south winds expected through the day. A cold
front will move through the area this afternoon and this evening.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop along the
front. Have added a VCTS group for when the front moves through to
account for this. Brief reductions in visibility and ceilings are
possible if storms move over a site. Otherwise, VFR conditions can
be expected through the evening and overnight hours. Winds shift
to the west and then to the north behind the front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211100-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
555 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Temperatures in the 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to
 near 100 can be expected this afternoon.

 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into
 this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
334 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

MOZ002>004-012-200915-
Worth MO-Gentry MO-Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
334 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WORTH...WESTERN GENTRY...
SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM
CDT...

At 333 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Maryville to 10 miles southwest of
Ravenwood to 12 miles southwest of Stanberry. Movement was northeast
at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Maryville, Stanberry, Ravenwood, Barnard, Conception Junction,
Sheridan, Parnell, Bolckow, Darlington, Guilford, Clyde, Gentry,
Arkoe, Worth, Rea, Conception and Ford City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4057 9447 4044 9441 4008 9431 4006 9485
      4019 9487 4039 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0833Z 232DEG 31KT 4034 9483 4023 9477 4013 9474

Kurtz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
834 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

MOZ015>017-024-201415-
Grundy MO-Adair MO-Linn MO-Sullivan MO-
834 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR...NORTHWESTERN
LINN...SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 833 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Galt, or 9 miles southeast of Trenton, moving east at
35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milan, Green City, Greencastle, Browning, Galt, Laredo, Humphreys,
Pollock, Reger, Green Castle and Winigan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9276 4005 9278 3996 9336 3997 9336
      3997 9350 4002 9354 4039 9311 4039 9301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 248DEG 32KT 4000 9345

Leighton