Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
645 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 242 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2021

Key Message:

- Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms expected this
evening, primarily across east central Kansas into western and
central Missouri.

Regional radar composite continues to show an increase in returns
early this afternoon across central and eastern Kansas, and
expect this trend to continue through the evening as increasing
deep layer ascent moves into the central Plains ahead of the next
upper wave. Highest probability of rain will be focused across
the southeast half of the CWA, with the 6pm-midnight timeframe as
the period with the most robust activity. A few embedded
thunderstorms will be possible within the scattered showers,
although severe weather is unlikely. Rainfall totals across
portions of east central Kansas into central Missouri will be
highest, with up to an inch of rain possible. Do not anticipate
any flooding at this time based on the latest MBRFC guidance.

Rainfall will end from west to east Saturday morning, clearing the
CWA prior to noon Saturday. Skies will clear by the afternoon with
highs warming into the middle 60s. Surface ridge settles in Saturday
night, and can't completely rule out some patchy fog across the
southern CWA. More notable warming and moisture transport is
expected Sunday into Tuesday, as an upper level ridge will build
into the central CONUS ahead of the next highly amplified wave. With
the approach of the upper trough, the next chance for thunderstorms
is expected on Tuesday evening/night. A few of the storms across
eastern Kansas may be strong, but uncertainty remains with respect
to convective organization/maintenance as instability wanes with
eastward extent/time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2021

Convection is expected mainly south and east of the metro tonight.
Could see ceilings lower into the MVFR category with convection.
Low level moisture should be sufficient tonight to develop IFR or
lower conditions after 06Z, especially where the rain sets up
through the evening. Could perhaps have some lowered visibility
towards 12Z Saturday morning in BR. Improving conditions are
expected through the day Saturday as low level moisture shallows,
with conditions eventually returning to VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
526 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
526 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers expected this afternoon and evening. Isolated
lighting may be possible south of I-70 this afternoon.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
514 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

KSZ057-105-232300-
Johnson KS-Miami KS-
514 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI AND SOUTHWESTERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ottawa, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Olathe, Lenexa, Gardner, Paola, Spring Hill, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Edgerton, Hillsdale, Chiles, Bucyrus, Clare and Wagstaff.

This includes Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 200 and
218.

LAT...LON 3882 9506 3896 9483 3864 9461 3863 9461
      3850 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 234DEG 44KT 3858 9521

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
552 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

KSZ057-060-MOZ043-053-232315-
Miami KS-Linn KS-Bates MO-Cass MO-
552 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MIAMI...NORTHERN LINN...
SOUTHWESTERN CASS AND NORTHWESTERN BATES COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Parker, or 11 miles south of Osawatomie, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Osawatomie, Louisburg, La Cygne, Drexel, Linn Valley, Cleveland,
Parker, Fontana, West Line, Merwin, New Lancaster and Beagle.

LAT...LON 3827 9507 3842 9506 3869 9459 3846 9441
      3822 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 239DEG 44KT 3835 9501

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
649 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

MOZ043-044-054-240015-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Henry MO-
649 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CASS...NORTHWESTERN
HENRY AND SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 649 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Garden City, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warrensburg, Holden, Leeton, Chilhowee, Centerview, Gunn City,
Blairstown, Post Oak, La Tour and Quick City.

LAT...LON 3850 9413 3867 9420 3885 9373 3859 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 251DEG 29KT 3862 9408

BT