Areal Flood Advisory 9, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
253 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 252 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2021

Focus for today...

1) Severe thunderstorms possible through the remainder of the
afternoon, with a threat of damaging wind and large hail.

2) The heat and humidity will intensify across the region in the
coming days.

This afternoon and evening...

For  the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours we will
be watching the severe thunderstorm complex that is rolling
southeast across northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri.

This small complex of storms moving out of Nebraska is what is left
of the overnight storms that moved east across Nebraska. The storm
activity slowed this morning, but eventually found a good north-
south moisture feed and instability axis in eastern Nebraska, which
has turned the activity south into eastern Kansas and western
Missouri early this afternoon.

As of the early afternoon hours, the complex has put down a cold
pool that looks to be driving the activity ahead of a synoptic front
that is still pushing through southeast Nebraska. As a result the
storms are moving into a favorable environment for severe weather,
as they follow an instability gradient axis of 3500 J/KG through
northeast Kansas into northwest and west central Missouri. Deep
layer shear, both 0-6KM and 0-8KM (50 kts), is more than sufficient
in the vicinity of the leading storms to support organized storms,
and has resulted in bowing line segment that has brought some large
hail and damaging winds (over 70 MPH) in Nebraska and Kansas thus
far.

For the rest of the afternoon, we expect the small complex of storms
to continue to follow the instability axis into east central Kansas
and west central Missouri. This will have the storms moving through
the greater Kansas City Metro between now and 5 PM, with lingering
showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting to around 7 PM in KC.
Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary concerns, though
heavy rain with local flooding may be an issue as individual storms
will be very efficient rain makers.

For late tonight, we may need to watch for redevelopment across north
central Missouri as some of the CAMs advertise a redevelopment of
activity late tonight. Currently, operational models don't support
this, but given the unstable airmass this will need watching.

The weekend and next work week...

In general, the prevailing ridge across the center of the Nation
will continue to prevail into next week, which will bring a
prolonged period of heat and humidity. On the up side, for Saturday,
we will see conditions improve slightly as today's stormy activity
and cool front brings a slightly cooler, and much drier, airmass to
the region. However, by Sunday the humidity and heat will start to
build back in, with Monday looking particularly hot and muggy.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 12 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2021

Main focus will be on a small complex of thunderstorms that will
drop south-southeast this afternoon across the northwest Kansas-
Missouri border; effecting the terminals through the late
afternoon to early evening hours. Strong gusty winds and low MVFR
CIGs are expected as as the thunderstorms move through. After the
storms move through, expect winds to turn to the north and
northeast for the rest of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1258 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121800-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
1258 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

 Maximum heat indices today will be in the mid 90s to near 100
 degrees. Caution needs to be taken if spending time outside.

 Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon. Winds up to 60
 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls will be the main threats.
 Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW KEARNEY           39.38N 94.37W
06/11/2021  E60 MPH          CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60MPH 33 HWY ONE HALF MILE EAST OF
            92 CLAY COUNTY.

&&

EMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE MOSBY             39.36N 94.28W
06/11/2021  E90 MPH          CLAY               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE 1 FOOT IN DIAMETER TREES DOWN IN
            BETWEEN KEARNEY, MO AND EXCELSIOR SPRINGS,
            MO. TREES WERE REPORTED HEALTHY WITH
            NUMEROUS REPORTED DOWN. DEBRIS ON GROUND
            ALONG WITH ROAD SIGNS REPORTED DOWN.

&&

EMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOLT                    39.45N 94.34W
06/11/2021  E65 MPH          CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS KNOCKED DOWN STREET LAMPS, SEVERAL
            2-2.5 INCH TREE BRANCHES ON ROADWAYS.
            SPORADIC PEA-SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

EMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
358 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BASEHOR                 39.14N 94.94W
06/11/2021                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOTORIST HIT DOWN POWER LINE IN ROADWAY IN
            AREA OF 153 TERR/PARALLEL ROAD (BASEHOR,
            KS).

&&

EMK