Alert archive / Iowa / Winter Storm Watches in 2021

Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Quad Cities, IA

February 3, 20218 counties in Illinois; 13 counties in Iowa

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this winter storm watch at Feb 3, 2021, 4:01 AM CST for 8 counties in Illinois; 13 counties in Iowa. It took effect at Feb 4, 2021, 9:00 AM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 3, 2021, 4:01 AM CST (10:01 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 4, 2021, 9:00 AM CST
Expired
Feb 3, 2021, 2:56 PM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Quad Cities, IA
All 21 counties

Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Linn County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Whiteside County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 41 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-02-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-02-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 32 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1014 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
32 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

093 
WWUS43 KDVN 031001 CCA
WSWDVN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
401 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...Blizzard Conditions Possible Thursday...

.A fast moving Arctic cold front will bring potentially dangerous
conditions to the area Thursday and Thursday night. Rain, possibly
be mixed with freezing rain and sleet will move into Iowa early
Thursday morning, then as the cold front moves in during the mid
morning, rain will switch to snow, winds will increase to 30 mph,
and any wet roads will flash freeze. As the front moves east, this
same impact will occur with it, reaching the Mississippi River in
the early afternoon, and central Illinois by late afternoon.  

Snow is expected to fall for several hours behind the cold front,
with several inches expected to fall. Winds behind the front will
increase to 25 to 35 mph, with blowing snow becoming dangerous in
open areas. White out conditions are possible, and some areas in
Iowa may experience several hours of blizzard conditions. 

IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099-031730-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WW.Y.0007.210204T1800Z-210205T1200Z/
Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-
Lee-
Including the cities of Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, 
Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, 
and Fort Madison
401 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Rain changing to Snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel Thursday afternoon will become
  hazardous and last through the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

ILZ002-007-009-016-017-024-031730-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0003.210204T2100Z-210205T1200Z/
Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-Henry IL-Bureau-Mercer-
Including the cities of Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, 
Geneseo, Princeton, and Aledo
401 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow are possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible. Winds could gust as
  high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Illinois.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerous conditions are possible during
  the Thursday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-ILZ001-015-031730-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0003.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Jo Daviess-Rock Island-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, 
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Marengo, Iowa City, 
Tipton, Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Galena, 
Moline, and Rock Island
401 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa and 
  northwest Illinois.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The dangerous conditions will move east
  from near Vinton Iowa by late morning to Cedar Rapids round Noon
  and then reaching the Quad Cities through Dubuque by 3 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/dvn
2 follow-up statements
815 
WWUS43 KDVN 031617
WSWDVN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1017 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...Blizzard Conditions Possible Thursday...

.A fast moving Arctic cold front will bring potentially dangerous
conditions to the area Thursday and Thursday night. Rain,
possibly be mixed with freezing rain and sleet will move into
eastern Iowa early Thursday morning, then as the cold front moves
in during the mid morning, rain will switch to snow. The winds 
will increase to 30 mph, and any wet roads will flash freeze. As 
the front moves east, this same impact will occur with it, 
reaching the Mississippi River in the early afternoon, and central
Illinois by late afternoon.

Snow is expected to fall for several hours behind the cold front,
with several inches expected to fall. Winds behind the front will
increase to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, with blowing 
snow becoming dangerous in open areas. White out conditions are 
possible, and some areas in Iowa may experience several hours of 
blizzard conditions. Significant drifting snow will be a problem
through Thursday night.

IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099-040030-
/O.CON.KDVN.WW.Y.0007.210204T1800Z-210205T1200Z/
Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-
Lee-
Including the cities of Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, 
Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, 
and Fort Madison
1017 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY
TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Rain changing to Snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel Thursday afternoon will become 
  hazardous and last through the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

ILZ002-007-009-016-017-024-040030-
/O.CON.KDVN.WS.A.0003.210204T2100Z-210205T1200Z/
Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-Henry IL-Bureau-Mercer-
Including the cities of Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, 
Geneseo, Princeton, and Aledo
1017 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow are possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible. Winds could gust as 
  high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Illinois.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Significant drifting
  will also be a problem. The hazardous conditions could impact 
  the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerous conditions are possible during 
  the Thursday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-ILZ001-015-040030-
/O.CON.KDVN.WS.A.0003.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Jo Daviess-Rock Island-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, 
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Marengo, Iowa City, 
Tipton, Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Galena, 
Moline, and Rock Island
1017 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa and 
  northwest Illinois.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Significant drifting
  will also be a problem. The hazardous conditions could impact 
  the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The dangerous conditions will move east 
  from near Vinton Iowa by late morning to Cedar Rapids round 
  Noon and then reaching the Quad Cities through Dubuque by 3 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/dvn
338 
WWUS43 KDVN 032056
WSWDVN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
256 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...Impactful Winter Storm Thursday...

.A fast moving Arctic cold front will bring dangerous conditions 
to portions of the area Thursday and Thursday night. Rain mixed 
with freezing rain and sleet will move into eastern Iowa early 
Thursday morning, then as the cold front moves in from the west 
during the mid morning, the rain will switch to snow. The winds 
will increase to 35 mph behind the front, and any wet roads will 
flash freeze. As the front moves east, this same impact will occur
with it, reaching the Mississippi River in the early afternoon, 
and central Illinois by late afternoon.

Snow is expected to fall for several hours after the change over
and become heavy at times, with several inches expected to fall. 
Winds behind the front will increase to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up
to 45 mph during the afternoon and evening, with blowing snow 
becoming dangerous in open areas. White out conditions are 
possible in open areas, and some areas may experience periods of 
near blizzard conditions, especially across east central and 
northeast Iowa. Significant drifting snow will be a problem 
through Friday morning. Wind chills will drop to 5 below to 15
below zero late Thursday night along and north of I80, and will be
very dangerous to anyone stranded out in the storm.

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-ILZ015-040500-
/O.UPG.KDVN.WS.A.0003.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.W.0004.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Rock Island-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, 
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Marengo, Iowa City, 
Tipton, Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Moline, 
and Rock Island
256 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Wintry mix changing to all snow. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Flash freeze
  occurring on travel surfaces by late afternoon. 

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa and 
  northwest Illinois.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility and produce white out
  conditions in open areas. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel Thursday will become hazardous
  especially by afternoon, and last through the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

ILZ002-007-009-016-017-024-040500-
/O.UPG.KDVN.WS.A.0003.210204T2100Z-210205T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.W.0004.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-Henry IL-Bureau-Mercer-
Including the cities of Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, 
Geneseo, Princeton, and Aledo
256 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Wintry mix changing to all snow. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Flash freeze
  occurring on travel surfaces by late afternoon. 

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Illinois.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility and produce white out
  conditions in open areas. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel Thursday will become hazardous
  especially by afternoon, and last through the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

ILZ001-040500-
/O.UPG.KDVN.WS.A.0003.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.W.0004.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
Jo Daviess-
Including the city of Galena
256 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Wintry mix changing to all snow. Total snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Flash freeze
  occurring on travel surfaces by late afternoon. 

* WHERE...Jo Daviess County.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility and produce white out
  conditions in open areas. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel Thursday will become hazardous
  especially by afternoon, and last through the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

ILZ018-040500-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.W.0004.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
Putnam-
Including the city of Hennepin
256 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Wintry mix changing to all snow. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Flash freeze
  occurring on travel surfaces by late afternoon. 

* WHERE...Putnam County.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility and produce white out
  conditions in open areas. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel Thursday will become hazardous
  especially by afternoon, and last through the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MOZ009-010-040500-
/O.EXB.KDVN.WW.Y.0007.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Memphis and Kahoka
256 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Wintry mix changing to snow. Total snow accumulations of
  1 to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Scotland and Clark Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel by Thursday afternoon will become 
  hazardous and last through the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

ILZ025-026-034-035-040500-
/O.EXA.KDVN.WW.Y.0007.210204T1800Z-210205T1200Z/
Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Including the cities of Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, and Macomb
256 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Rain changing to snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Henderson, Warren, Hancock and McDonough Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel by Thursday afternoon will become 
  hazardous and last through the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099-040500-
/O.EXT.KDVN.WW.Y.0007.210204T1500Z-210205T1200Z/
Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-
Lee-
Including the cities of Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, 
Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, 
and Fort Madison
256 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO
6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Rain changing to Snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 
  3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel Thursday afternoon will become 
  hazardous and last through the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

12/Cousins

www.weather.gov/dvn

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Feb 3, 3:01 AM CST, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 3, 3:01 AM CST, 1 hour before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
301 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

GOES-16 RGB painted a busy weather picture over eastern Iowa,
northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri early this morning.
Most notable was the low-level stratus deck that has been plaguing
us for the past few days, which was positioned from north central
Iowa to western Illinois. Underneath the stratus, weather was
generally benign with temperatures in the teens to low 20s, with
some areas of reduced visibilities. North of a line from
Independence IA to Peoria IL, skies were mainly clear with only a
hint of upper-level cirrus. Temperatures were much colder with most
places in the single digits, and areas of dense fog were forming as
a result especially in low lying areas, though this was expanding
over the past few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

Key Messages:

1) Fog will persist through the morning before eroding by midday.

2) Some breaks of sun, but skies stay mostly cloudy today.

3) Precipitation ahead of an arctic cold front arrives across our
far west late tonight.

Have issued a dense fog advisory for most of eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois and northeast Missouri until 16z as satellite and
observations were showing a gradual expansion and increase of the
fog deck over the past 1-2 hours. Some areas in eastern and
southeast IA are marginal at the moment, but I expect a period like
we had yesterday of the low-level stratus reaching the ground for a
brief period, which will lead to reduced visibilities.

Weather-wise for the remainder of the day, expansive area of high
pressure stretching from Lake Superior all the way down the
Mississippi River will slowly move to our east. As a result,
southeasterly flow should increase, and will likely result in a
gradual push of the stratus deck back north across the area and
decreasing of the fog intensity, though some reduced visibilities
will likely remain. Because of this, expect much of the area to
remain under mostly cloud skies, with some breaks possible mainly
across the far south. This will reflect on temperatures mostly, with
highs generally expected in the 20s to low 30s for most in eastern
Iowa and northwest Illinois. Further south into northeast Missouri,
highs may climb into the lower 40s as there is less snow cover that
way and a potential for breaks in sunshine.

For tonight, attention turns to the west as a well-advertised Arctic
cold front approaches the area from the Plains. Precipitation should
be on our doorstep around the 10-12z timeframe, with a mix of rain
and freezing rain to start as we deal with a deep layer of warm air
aloft and near freezing temperatures at the surface. This changes
more into the daytime, with more details on this discussed in the
long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

Thursday is a high impact weather day!

The well advertised Arctic front will arrive by noon in western
counties, and reach the east by late afternoon. As this front moves
past, models all show a low pressure riding along the front. That
will serve two purposes.

First, the low riding up will bring enhanced convergence and
moisture with it, arriving in the early morning, and possibly
creating a narrow deformation zone during the afternoon.

Second, it will decrease the southerly flow found over our area
during the morning hours Thursday, as winds back ahead of the
low, which will combine with low clouds, precipitation, and our
existing deep snow pack to limit high temperatures to the mid 30s
for most locations north of Highway 34. Farther south, upper 30s
are forecast. That limited warm up will not necessarily produce
freezing rain, but certainly allows for a quicker change to snow
as the cold front reaches the area.

Immediately after the front moves past, temperatures will rapidly
drop back below freezing, and winds will increase. A flash freeze of
any liquid water on roads is expected. Rain, which could be moderate
in intensity will switch to snow, and possibly fall heavily for
an hour or two. That snow will create dangerous travel, possibly
reaching the level of blizzard conditions in open areas. That
threat will exist toward Noon in the west, by 1 PM in Cedar
Rapids, and by 3 PM towards the Mississippi River/Quad Cities-
Dubuque, and by 4 PM in the east.

The big question remains how much snow will be moved by this wind.
Will the existing snow pack be iced over? Will it be movable
anyway if it's only a thin layer of iced over? Even so, a 1-4 inch
snow could blow around on top of any iced over snow. Winds are
expected to reach 35 mph, on gusts for sure, but for a while, that
could be sustained just behind the front. I could see this going
either a Winter Weather Advisory or possibly a Blizzard Warning
pending how much snow will be movable.

No matter what, conditions just behind the Arctic front Thursday
afternoon will be quite hazardous!

By evening, wind chills in the zero to +10 range should be common,
with blowing snow continuing into the night. Watch headlines will
continue through 6 am Friday. The south advisory will be through
6 AM too.

Beyond, the Arctic air will dominate the weather through the week
ahead. The patter is active aloft, and move snow is very much
possible. The ECWMF and GFS both show bouts of isentropic lift
moving through the base of the broad upper trof. These events would
have high snow water ratios, and could result in significant snow
fall. The first of these events is on tap for Saturday, and the next
Monday.  Our forecast will begin to focus on those events in the
coming days.

With the active pattern, temperature forecasts, especially lows,
will be difficult, with clouds playing spoiler to what would see a
lock for -10s.

Either way, this a real winter pattern, that will have daily impacts
to life.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021

TAFs remain very challenging. IFR/LIFR stratus has cleared DBQ
and the back edge is very near MLI. Latest several scans of
GOES-16 nighttime microphysics shows that clearing line may be
slowing or coming to a halt, which is anticipated as the southerly
flow commences and increases in the cloud bearing layer with DMX
WSR-88D VWP showing winds from SSW at 10 kts at 250m. The IFR/LIFR
stratus is likely to retreat/expand back into DBQ and MLI
terminals overnight as a result. In addition to the stratus, fog
is expected with at least IFR/MVFR visibilities though potential
for some periods of LIFR/VLIFR visibility overnight through mid
morning Wednesday. Anticipate improvement to MVFR and even some
VFR gradually Wednesday afternoon through evening as SW winds
increase and mix into dry air at the base of the inversion and
above.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Benton-
     Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-
     Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
     night for Benton-Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-
     Iowa-Jackson-Johnson-Jones-Linn-Muscatine-Scott.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday
     for Des Moines-Henry IA-Jefferson-Keokuk-Lee-Louisa-Van
     Buren-Washington.

IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Bureau-
     Carroll-Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-Mercer-Rock
     Island-Stephenson-Whiteside.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
     night for Jo Daviess-Rock Island.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Bureau-Carroll-Henry IL-Mercer-Stephenson-
     Whiteside.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Clark-
     Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...McClure
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 2, 3:52 PM CST, 12 hours 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
352 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-032200-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
352 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Areas of fog, some dense, can be expected tonight reducing
visibilities to less than a mile. There may also be patchy slick
spots on roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday, freezing rain and rain will spread across the entire
area in the morning hours, with slick roads likely. By afternoon,
a powerful cold front will quickly change the rains to snow, with
accumulating snow likely through the evening hours. At this time,
several inches of snow is possible, mainly along and north of
Interstate 80. Blowing snow and rapidly falling temperatures in
the late afternoon and evening will also be accompanied by a flash
freeze of wet roads. Blowing snow will continue to be a threat
through Thursday night, as temperatures fall to the single digits
above zero to the lower teens. Wind chills by Friday morning may
reach as low as -20.

Bitterly cold weather is forecast through Monday. Wind chills of
-20 to -30 are likely each night, with daytime highs only in the
 single digits above zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Haase

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 2, 10:31 PM CST, 5 hours 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1031 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021

IAZ042-053-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-030645-
Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Clinton,
Davenport, Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling,
Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, and Hennepin
1031 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021

...Patchy Dense Fog...

Clearing skies and light winds will continue to allow areas of
fog to develop into the overnight. The fog will be dense in
spots, especially in river valleys and other low lying areas.
The patchy nature of the fog is likely to result in rapid
fluctuations in visibility over short distances. If traveling be
prepared for sudden changes in visibility. When encountering dense
fog please use low beam headlights, slow down, and give yourself
plenty of braking distance. A dense fog advisory may be needed if
the dense fog becomes widespread.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 3, 1:04 AM CSTDense Fog AdvisoryDVNBureau, Carroll, Hancock, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess and 5 more10 hr
Feb 3, 4:01 AM CSTWinter Weather AdvisoryDVNBureau, Carroll, Hancock, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess and 7 more56 hr
Feb 3, 2:56 PM CSTWinter Storm WarningDVNBureau, Carroll, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess, Mercer and 5 more36 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Iowa, 2021Winter Storm Watches in Illinois, 2021Every winter storm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.