Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
533 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Currently, we are socked-in with clouds throughout the forecast
area, but otherwise rather quiet. Temperatures cooled off a little
in the north tonight, with most in the low 50s, but remain in the
60s for the southern parts of the forecast area. Showers and storms
continue to approach from the west, ahead of a weak cold front.
These will fill the area this morning, bringing some more rain. Some
storms may have frequent lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Today and Tonight...

All good things, such as yesterday's beautiful weather, must come to
an end. This is the case today, as another potent wave passes off to
our northwest, dragging a weak cold front through our forecast area
today. This morning, we will see a band of rain and thunderstorms
push through the area, associated with warm advection ahead of the
the approaching front. This will potentially be the only weather we
see today, as short term guidance is cutting out the chance for a
second round of storms with the front in the afternoon (except for
the HRRR). The reason we are going with the other guidance is
because the HRRR has unreasonably high temperatures and moisture
ahead of the front, inflating the amount of instability and
resulting in a second round of thunderstorms. Given overcast skies
and residual showers/storms from morning convection, that is
unlikely. With this in mind, some storms this morning may be
stronger, with heavy rain and frequent lightning. Rainfall totals up
to an inch are possible for some. Aside from the thunderstorm
chances, it is going to be a very windy day. Strong gradient winds
will result from the approaching wave, leading to sustained winds
from 15-20 mph and gusts around 25-30 mph.

Today, we have a Marginal Risk for severe weather. While there is a
chance to see a severe storm, our confidence is quite low on this
occurring. If severe weather is to happen, it would mainly be seen
with the second round of storms (if there is even a second round),
where the greatest shear and instability would be seen.

Tonight, we will see the winds quickly die off behind the front. We
will also see a decrease in the cloud cover, leading to clearing
skies by sunrise on Thursday. Temperatures will also be on the
downhill slope, with mid to upper 40s entering our forecast area
tonight. This will mainly be seen in the northwest, where some
clearing can be seen, allowing temperatures to drop.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Thursday and Friday

A deep trough is forecast to swing through the Central U.S. on
Thursday and Friday, which could bring more rain to parts of
eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois, mainly Thursday night into
Friday morning. There are model discrepancies on the track of the
mid- level vort. max which impacts the placement of low-level
features. The CMC/NAM/GFS have a 850mb low tracking across western
Illinois to Lake Michigan, while the ECMWF is further to the
southeast, resulting in little rainfall for the area.

From Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon, NBM probabilities
for over 0.10" of rain are 60-70% across the far east-central
forecast area, decreasing to 30-50% along the Mississippi River
and less than 20% northwest of Cedar Rapids.

Seasonable temps are expected late this week with highs in the
60s Thursday and upper 50s to low 60s Friday. It will be chilly
Friday night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Saturday On

Cool and dry weather is forecast for the weekend with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s and lows in the 40s to upper 30s. Temps will
rebound early next week, reaching the low 70s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Showers and storms have started to move into the area from the
west and will continue through the morning. These storms will
bring cloud ceilings down into MVFR-IFR conditions by mid
morning. Strong gradient winds are expected, with gusts upwards
to 30 KTs out of the southeast through the whole day. As the
front and precipitation move out of the area, cloud heights will
start to increase, with gusty winds continuing into the late
evening. By 06Z tonight, winds will be light once again and the
clouds will begin to clear out from the northwest.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Gunkel
SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Gunkel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
331 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-140845-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
331 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Widespread showers and storms today, where heavy rain and frequent
lightning can be seen in some. The Storm Prediction Center has a
Marginal Risk for severe weather. A couple storms may be strong to
severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

TG/ZU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
552 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

IAZ098-MOZ009-010-131130-
Van Buren IA-Clark MO-Scotland MO-
552 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Van
Buren, Scotland and northwestern Clark Counties through 630 AM CDT...

At 551 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Downing, or 10 miles west of Memphis, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Memphis around 605 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Milton, Cantril and
Keosauqua.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 9235 4060 9218 4082 9218 4076 9193
      4047 9195 4030 9228 4030 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1051Z 209DEG 41KT 4041 9236

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Uttech