Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1224 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Fantastic Easter Sunday with sunny skies and mid afternoon
temperatures well into the 70s. The last time we were this warm
was 5 months ago in early November. South winds have been gusting
up to 30 mph north of I-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Tonight into Monday morning: Warm Air Advection (WAA) kicks in
late tonight with an increase in mid level clouds. CAM's develop
some showers, mainly in our north, but forecast soundings indicate
limited moisture especially in the low levels. This carries into
Monday morning so for now I will continue with the idea of small
pops, figuring isolated showers. This will be a much warmer night
with dewpoints rising to around 50. Lows will bottom out in the
lower to mid 50s.

Monday afternoon: The WAA pushes off to our northeast so it should
be a warm and dry afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny with highs in
the mid to upper 70s. South winds will be gusting up to 30 mph,
possibly 35 mph in spots. Luckily, moisture values will be higher
limiting any grass fire threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Key messages:

1) Potent upper low to bring widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms mid week.

2) Warm through mid week then cooler.

Details:

Tuesday through Thursday: Potent upper low moves out of the
central Rockies and then into Iowa. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will accompany this system, but instability looks limited due to
extensive cloud cover. Therefore, the severe threat looks to
remain well to our south. Highs will be in the 70s.

Friday through Sunday: Low confidence in synoptic pattern so for
now the grids are mainly dry with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021

Thunderstorms developed tonight mostly east of DBQ and MLI.
Mentioned VCTS in the DBQ TAF through 2 AM with a chance for a few
more storms to track slightly east of the terminal. VFR is
expected to prevail overnight before another round of scattered
showers and storms arrives in the morning, the best chances are at
DBQ and CID. MLI appears to be on the southern edge with this
second round. Rain chances will diminish during the afternoon and
it will become breezy once again with SSW winds gusting up to 25kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Uttech

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1011 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-051515-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1011 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and south winds gusting
to around 25 mph, will result in a very high risk for grass fires
this afternoon north of Interstate 80. Any fire that develops
could quickly get out of control. Outdoor burning is strongly
discouraged.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Gusty south winds, warm temperatures and low relative humidity
will lead to a high grass fire danger on Monday.

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the Outlook area Monday into Tuesday.

A better chance of thunderstorms will exist Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday night. The threat for severe weather with these
storms appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Haase

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1136 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

ILC085-177-050515-
Jo Daviess-Stephenson-
1136 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JO DAVIESS AND
SOUTHWESTERN STEPHENSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1136 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Woodbine, or
15 miles east of Galena, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lena, Stockton, Pearl City, Elizabeth, Woodbine, Scales Mound,
Schapville, Guilford, Kent, Elizabeth Fairgrounds, Canyon Camp,
Willow, Stockton Airport, Galena Territory, Apple Canyon Lake and
Rodden.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4234 9040 4249 9033 4238 8976 4222 8981
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 289DEG 23KT 4236 9013

Uttech

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1226 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021

ILC085-177-050600-
Jo Daviess-Stephenson-
1226 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JO DAVIESS AND
SOUTHWESTERN STEPHENSON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1225 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Stockton, or
14 miles north of Mount Carroll, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton, Pearl City, Elizabeth, Woodbine, Schapville, Loran, Kent,
Elizabeth Fairgrounds, Canyon Camp, Willow, Stockton Airport,
Elmoville, Apple Canyon Lake, Rodden and North Hanover.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4231 9033 4246 9026 4235 8979 4220 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 287DEG 21KT 4231 9005

Gross

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
111 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021

ILC015-085-050645-
Jo Daviess-Carroll-
111 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JO DAVIESS AND
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 110 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hanover, or 15
miles northwest of Mount Carroll, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hanover, Massbach and Camp Far Horizons.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4221 9034 4231 9022 4222 8992 4210 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0610Z 289DEG 24KT 4223 9022

McClure

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
154 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021

ILC015-195-IAC045-097-050730-
Whiteside-Carroll-Jackson-Clinton-
154 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WHITESIDE...
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN CLINTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 154 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sabula, or 10
miles southwest of Mount Carroll, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milledgeville, Fairhaven, Sabula, Chadwick, Coleta, Argo Fay,
Thomson, Ideal, Franklin Corners, Carroll County Fairgrounds, White
Pigeon, South Sabula Lake Park, Thomson Causeway and Wacker.

LAT...LON 4198 9024 4208 9019 4199 8972 4185 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0654Z 292DEG 30KT 4201 9015

Gross