Small Craft Advisory 84, NWS Detroit, MI

981 
WHUS73 KDTX 150226
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
926 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

LHZ421-441>443-151515-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-211216T0500Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0020.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
926 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds 
  up to 19 knots from the south with gusts up to 31 knots. The 
  largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Gale Watch, expect 
  sustained winds up to 26 knots from the southwest with gusts 
  up to 43 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet 
  with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet.

* WHERE...Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI, Harbor Beach to Port 
  Sanilac MI, Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI and Outer Saginaw 
  Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay.

* WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are 
  expected around 10 AM EST Wednesday with the largest waves 
  expected around 4 AM EST Wednesday. During the Gale Watch, the 
  maximum winds are expected around 7 AM EST Thursday with the 
  largest waves expected around 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-151515-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0020.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
926 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the southwest
  with gusts up to 47 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 12 PM EST 
  Thursday with the largest waves expected around 10 AM EST 
  Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LHZ422-151515-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0020.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
926 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 24 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 40 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 
  feet.

* WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 AM EST Thursday 
  with the largest waves expected around 8 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462>464-151515-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0020.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
926 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 45 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 10 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  14 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 
  5NM Off Shore, Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron 
  beyond 5NM Off Shore and Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to 
  Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 AM EST Thursday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

906 
WHUS73 KDTX 150856
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
356 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

LHZ421-441>443-152115-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-211216T0500Z/
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0020.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0025.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
356 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  28 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 39 knots. The 
  largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Small Craft 
  Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 19 knots from the south 
  with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet.

* WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to 
  Inner Saginaw Bay, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI, Harbor 
  Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI.

* WHEN...During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected
  around 10 AM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around
  11 AM EST Thursday. During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum
  winds are expected around 10 AM EST Wednesday with the largest
  waves expected around 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ363-422-462>464-152115-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0020.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0025.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
356 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 43 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 10 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  14 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 
  5NM off shore, Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay 
  Port MI, Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 
  5NM Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac 
  beyond 5NM Off Shore and Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port 
  Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 AM EST Thursday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-152115-
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0025.211216T0300Z-211216T2100Z/
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
356 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 21 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 34 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...In Lake St Clair, Lake St Clair. In Lake Erie, 
  Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape 
  MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 AM EST Thursday 
  with the largest waves expected around 9 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-152115-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0020.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SR.W.0003.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
356 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 48 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  16 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 AM EST Thursday 
  with the largest waves expected around 8 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

KK

215 
WHUS73 KDTX 152028
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
328 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

LHZ421-441-161015-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-211216T0500Z/
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.W.0025.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.SR.W.0003.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
328 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...During the Storm Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  32 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 50 knots. The 
  largest significant waves will be 7 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 10 feet. During the Small Craft 
  Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 19 knots from the south 
  with gusts up to 21 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet.

* WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to 
  Inner Saginaw Bay and Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI.

* WHEN...During the Storm Warning, the maximum winds are 
  expected around 3 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves 
  expected around 4 PM EST Thursday. During the Small Craft 
  Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 3 PM EST 
  Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST 
  Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462-161015-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.W.0025.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.SR.W.0003.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
328 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 34 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 50 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  16 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 
  5NM off shore and Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach 
  beyond 5NM Off Shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EST Thursday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-161015-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0025.211216T0500Z-211216T2100Z/
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
328 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 21 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...In Lake St Clair, Lake St Clair. In Lake Erie, 
  Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape 
  MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 AM EST Thursday 
  with the largest waves expected around 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-161015-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-211216T0500Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0025.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
328 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  27 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 42 knots. The 
  largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Small Craft 
  Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 19 knots from the south 
  with gusts up to 22 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet.

* WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to 
  Port Huron MI.

* WHEN...During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected 
  around 10 AM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected 
  around 7 AM EST Thursday. During the Small Craft Advisory, the 
  maximum winds are expected around 3 PM EST Wednesday with the 
  largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ422-463-464-161015-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0025.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
328 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 42 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 8 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  11 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 
  5NM Off Shore and Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay 
  Port MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 AM EST 
  Thursday with the largest waves expected around 10 AM EST 
  Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-161015-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0003.211216T0500Z-211217T0500Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
328 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 49 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  17 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EST Thursday 
  with the largest waves expected around 11 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
106 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions through this evening as we deal with mainly high
clouds streaming in ahead of an approaching warm front. Cloud
heights will lower through the night as moisture increases. Could
see a period of MVFR VSBY with an area of rain that passes through
the region late tonight after about 07-09Z. Should see a few hours
of more widespread rain before coverage gets more scattered after
about 14Z. We'll also have several hours of low level wind shear as
speeds reach near 45 knots down to 2kft. Increasing surface winds in
the afternoon will then reduce the effects later in the day.

For DTW...VFR today with veil of increasing high cirrus followed by
lowering ceilings overnight. CIGS drop below 5 kft around 07Z
Wednesday, then around 3kft in the mid morning. Questions on rain
coverage in the afternoon, so opted to leave out of the forecast for
now, highlighting the morning rain period instead.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft Wednesday morning and early
  afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

DISCUSSION...

A weak cool front settles into Ohio before washing out during the
morning which places SE MI on the west fringe of Quebec high
pressure for the rest of today. The larger scale ridge aloft
provides ample mid level subsidence to ensure one more day of dry
weather while high clouds thicken more noticeably by afternoon.
Temperatures are down a few degrees compared to yesterday but still
hold above normal despite the high clouds and as surface wind gains
easterly trajectories from the Quebec high. Afternoon max temps in
the mid 40s look reachable.

Conditions change quickly tonight as Gulf modified air accelerates
into the Great Lakes. A plume of moisture is transported into the
area on SW mid level flow increasing to around 50 knots in the 850
to 700 mb layer. The strong flow develops out ahead of expansive low
pressure organizing from central Canada all the way into the
southern Plains. Theta-e advection and isentropic ascent is
maximized over Lower MI resulting in numerous coverage of rain
showers after midnight into Wednesday morning. Steady SE surface
wind veering south helps hold temperatures well above freezing as
the rain moves into the region.

A gusty south wind boosts low level warm/moist advection all day
Wednesday fueled by the steepening gradient between Atlantic coast
high pressure and low pressure organizing across the central Plains.
The inbound air mass carries temperatures to near record highs in
the upper 50s most locations despite the clouds and showers. Surface
dewpoint is also projected to reach the 50s in model data which
indicates boundary layer moisture is plenty adequate for drizzle to
take over as the axis of rain showers exits SE MI Wednesday
afternoon. The strength of the low level wind field will also be
favorable for drizzle production assuming maintenance of a sharp
inversion at the top of the mixed layer during the afternoon into
Wednesday night.

Low level stability also factors into a potentially impactful
surface wind forecast Wednesday night with a wide range of low level
thermal profiles shown across the deterministic solutions. The GFS
offers a high end solution due to how much warm air it brings into
Lower MI during the night. Temperatures steady or rising from the
mid and upper 50s appear more than possible given the feed of Gulf
air which leads to a greater signal of nocturnal boundary layer
mixing as the wind field ramps up considerably. GFS model soundings
indicate conservative access to at least 40 mph gust potential
during the night with a few higher gusts possible when factoring in
extra mechanical mixing at the inversion base. This is then followed
by another round of 45 to 50 mph gusts possible as the strong cold
front plows through the warm sector still supportive of near record
highs around 60 Thursday morning. The postfrontal wind field ticked
up a notch due to extra deepening of the low pressure system as it
tracks from western Lake Superior toward James Bay. The surface low
is shown reaching the 970-975 mb range across 00Z deterministic runs
during the day Thursday. The need for a Wind Advisory will continue
to be outlooked for late Wednesday night and Thursday.

The wind diminishes quickly by Thursday evening after bringing in an
air mass with temperatures more typical of mid December. Lows drop
into the 20s with highs in the 30s Friday and Saturday as the front
stalls in the Ohio valley to provide a focus for the next low
pressure system. Extended models continue to show some spread in
solutions as a surface low develops along the front with the
northern fringe of the moisture field having a range of intensity as
it brushes Lower MI. The most reliable signal is a return to more of
a wintry pattern with a chance of snow Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE...

Center of strong high pressure drifts into eastern Ontario this
morning backing winds to southeasterly while also causing a slight
tightening of the local pressure gradient. As a result winds
increase in strength over the course of the day reaching 20-25kts
(gusts) tonight. A warm front then lifts through the central Great
Lakes Wednesday afternoon with a pattern of rain showers while
subtly shifting winds to southerly. The associated low rapidly
deepens as it moves out of the central Rockies into the upper
Midwest/western Lake Superior late Wednesday into Thursday. Local
gradient rapidly tightens in response which looks sufficient for
sustained winds in the 25-30kt range with gusts 40-45 kt, especially
across northern Lake Huron Thursday. A Gale Watch is in effect for
all Lake Huron marine areas for this time period.

CLIMATE...

Record highs for Wednesday Dec 15th:

DTW 61 (1933)
FNT 60 (1971)
MBS 60 (1971)

Thursday Dec 16th:

DTW  65 (1984)
FNT  62 (1984)
MBS  60 (1984)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for
     LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......KDK
CLIMATE......BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
448 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-151000-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
448 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A strong low pressure system brings near record warmth into southeast
Michigan Wednesday and Wednesday night followed by a strong cold
front early Thursday. Due to the strength of this system, south wind
gusting near 45 mph is possible Wednesday night shifting west to near
50 mph Thursday. A Wind Advisory may be needed Wednesday night and
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-151000-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
448 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Gale Watch is in effect Wednesday night through Thursday night for
all Lake Huron marine areas. Please see the latest marine forecasts
and hazard statements for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

BT