Tornado Warning 2, NWS Des Moines, IA

223 
WWUS53 KDMX 202332
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
632 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

IAC053-202341-
/O.EXP.KDMX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210620T2330Z/
Decatur IA-
632 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been 
allowed to expire. However, large hail and damaging winds remain 
likely and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the 
area. Heavy rain is still possible with this thunderstorm as well.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4068 9398 4075 9394 4072 9360 4058 9368
      4058 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 288DEG 32KT 4064 9364 

$$

Small

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
439 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 435 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

21Z SEVERE THREAT UPDATE FOR TONIGHT: Low pressure has moved into
southeast Minnesota with the cold front just entering far
northwest Iowa and an upper-level jet streak entering southern
Minnesota and NW Iowa. The low is expected to continue to track
eastward across southern Minnesota through the afternoon hours
bringing the cold front with it passing northwest to southeast
through Iowa this afternoon into evening.

CAMs still hint that storms will initiate along and ahead of this
approaching cold front. Plenty of 0-3km CAPE, 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, and 50 knots of wind shear along with steepening lapse rates
are expected in the warm sector. Our main window for convection
looks to be 3-9pm starting in northern Iowa, where convection has
initiated. However, storms have been slow to take off likely to
inhibition concerns.

The main concerns with the storms this afternoon and evening
continue to be large hail and damaging wind gusts, but a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out in our far eastern counties, though the main
tornado risk is likely further east where soundings show winds are
better backed with height.

The overall severe threat appears to be along and north of a
Pocahontas to Tama county line, with a secondary area of concern
over south central to southeast Iowa, where storms will likely be
more isolated, but still have the potential to be strong to severe.
These two areas are reflected in Severe Thunderstorm Watches #293
and #294 with storms expected to intensify along the front moving
across the state with large hail and damaging wind as the main
threats.

Forecast Highlights Monday through Sunday:
-- Cooler temperatures with lower humidity Monday and Tuesday.
-- Return to normal to above normal temperatures mid-week.
-- Next rain chances Tuesday with better storm chances later
Thursday into Friday.

THIS WEEK: After the cold front passes through the state tonight,
cooler temperatures and drier air are expected to start the work
week beneath a longwave trough. High temperatures on Monday will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s and in the 70s to low 80s on Tuesday.
Dew points will be back in the 40s, making for some very nice days
to start the week!

Shower and storm chances return later Tuesday but any severe risk is
tied to moisture return which may be limited with northwest flow
aloft, though with low-level theta-e advection moving into the state
and some modest instability a few stronger storms could occur,
provided moisture return takes place, but widespread thunderstorms
or severe weather seems unlikely at this time. As the longwave
trough pushes east on Wednesday, ridging returns as do warmer
temperatures. A trough and associated front on Thursday brings
higher chances for storms, later Thursday into Friday, with dry and
slightly cooler temperatures to start the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon/
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Clearing after the showers and thunderstorms this morning has
occurred from much of western to central Iowa, though some MVFR
CIGs are streaming in ahead of the approaching front in NW Iowa,
thus added tempo group of lower CIGs at KFOD. Additional showers
and storms are expected to develop by 20-21Z, some of which could
be severe, but will exit our CWA by about 2Z. Behind the cold
front, gusty northwest winds are expected overnight into Monday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...KCM/Small
AVIATION...KCM/Small

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
243 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-211945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
243 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this evening. Some
of the storms may be severe, with large hail and damaging winds
the primary threat. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out
especially across portions of north central and northeast Iowa.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Periodic thunderstorm chances continue through the upcoming week.
The threat for severe weather is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and this evening.

Zogg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
338 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

IAZ047-059-060-202115-
Boone IA-Polk IA-Dallas IA-
338 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...Thunderstorm With Small Hail Developing over Northern Dallas
County...

At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Perry, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Madrid, Granger, Woodward, Big Creek Lake, Saylorville Lake,
Dawson, Bouton, Perry Municipal Airport and Big Creek State Park.

LAT...LON 4186 9417 4189 9416 4188 9373 4173 9378
      4180 9423 4186 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 271DEG 30KT 4183 9408

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
443 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             5 NNE AFTON             41.09N 94.15W
06/20/2021  E2.00 INCH       UNION              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
542 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             4 ESE OAKLAND ACRES     41.69N 92.76W
06/20/2021  E1.25 INCH       POWESHIEK          IA   PUBLIC

&&

AK