Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
649 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Forecast Highlights:
* Scattered Storms (a Few Severe) to persist this evening. Main
  hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.
* Widespread showers and thunderstorms (a Few Severe) Thursday and
  Friday to bring beneficial rain to Iowa
* Storm chances will linger over the weekend and into early next
  week. Uncertainty in storm coverage, especially early next week.

Shallow shower and weak t-storms have been gradually developing
early this afternoon in an area of weak instability along warm
frontal boundary. Sfc dew points have been climbing steadily into
the upper 50s most locations. Latest CAM guidance continues to show
destabilization through early evening, yielding MLCAPE's in the
vicinity of 1000 j/kg (should low 60s sfc dew points be
realized). Meanwhile, weak shortwave energy dropping into the
state will assist in mid-level thermal destabilization. Effective
shear values of 45-55 knots will be more than enough to aid
convective organization. Unseasonably low freezing level suggests
hail will be the primary threat initially, eventually
transitioning to a damaging wind threat as convection congeals by
late afternoon/early evening. Shortwave trof and nose of LLJ
continues to push east overnight, taking any lingering
shower/thunderstorm activity with it.

Wednesday will be dry as northwest flow prevails. H85/H7 WAA will be
effective in capping any daytime convective chances. Lacking any mid-
level moisture/clouds, temperatures tomorrow will warm back into the
mid-upper 80s for most places. The pattern is flattened Wednesday
night by shortwaves ejecting from close low on the south end of
developing eastern Pacific Rex Block. Lead shortwave will push
storms into western IA after midnight Wednesday night. Damaging
winds would be the more likely hazard with this activity.

Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return statewide on
Thursday and will continue into Friday as sfc boundary pulls up
stationary E-W across Iowa. PWATS climb above 2" during the period
and along with a series of embedded shortwaves will set the stage
for very good chances for widespread precipitation, some of which
may be heavy. Any flash flood concerns would be confined to urban
areas, as low soil moisture and crops in agricultural land will
mitigate substantial run-off. Looks like 1-3 inches of rain (lighted
amount in NW; heaviest SE), with locally higher amounts possible.
Day 3 WPC ERO is well positioned to capture this. Severe threat will
be possible on Thursday as well, with large hail/damaging winds once
again the primary associated hazards.

The front sags south on Friday, gradually dragging rainfall chances
with it. Best chance for severe looks to move into southeast IA and
MO. Although lingering convection will still be a possibility,
especially Friday Morning.

Upper trough will move into the upper midwest Sat-Tue will yield
nearly daily afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm chances along
with temps that fall short of seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period, but
scattered thunderstorms through 06z tonight may briefly drop TAF
sites to MVFR or lower, especially KDSM and KOTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hahn
AVIATION...Small

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
230 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-231930-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
230 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon and evening
and a few may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances return Thursday into Friday. Strong to severe
storms may be possible on Thursday. Heavy rainfall and localized
water issues may occur as well with potential for multiple rounds
of storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             5 ENE SPRING HILL       41.44N 93.56W
06/22/2021  M1.00 INCH       WARREN             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD IS COMPLETELY COVERED WITH DIME TO
            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG G24 HIGHWAY NEAR
            HIGHWAY 65/69 INTERSECTION NORTH OF
            INDIANOLA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             LYTTON                  42.42N 94.87W
06/22/2021  E1.50 INCH       SAC                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             1 NE INDIANOLA          41.37N 93.55W
06/22/2021  M0.75 INCH       WARREN             IA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0630 PM     HAIL             3 ESE INDIANOLA         41.34N 93.52W
06/22/2021  M1.00 INCH       WARREN             IA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0630 PM     HAIL             MILO                    41.29N 93.44W
06/22/2021  M0.75 INCH       WARREN             IA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0631 PM     HAIL             3 ESE INDIANOLA         41.34N 93.52W
06/22/2021  M1.50 INCH       WARREN             IA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: PING PONG BALL (1.50
            IN.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
642 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

IAZ038-049-050-230045-
Tama IA-Grundy IA-Marshall IA-
642 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

...Half Inch Hail Possible...

At 641 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Conrad, or 10 miles north of Marshalltown, moving southeast at 55
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marshalltown, Toledo, Tama, Traer, Dysart, Conrad, Meskwaki Casino,
Gladbrook, Le Grand, Garwin, Albion, Liscomb, Montour, Clutier,
Beaman, Lincoln, Green Mountain, Vining, Tf Clark State Park and
Union Grove State Park.

LAT...LON 4186 9247 4186 9263 4217 9307 4221 9303
      4221 9300 4224 9300 4233 9292 4221 9230
      4206 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 293DEG 47KT 4218 9284

Krull

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