Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
354 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
again Wednesday afternoon. Dry Wednesday night through Friday.
Rain chance returns Friday night and Saturday.

A closed upper low north of Lake Superior this afternoon will
migrate to Hudson Bay Wednesday afternoon. A pair of weak cold
fronts will move through the Northland on northwest flow, and
generate scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and
again Wednesday afternoon. This activity will decrease later
tonight. Wind gusts to near 50 mph are possible with the storms
this afternoon, along with some pea size hail with the stronger
storms. Thermodynamic profiles are a bit weaker Wednesday
afternoon, but cannot rule out the possibility of some strong
gusts and pea size hail again.

Cold air advection Wednesday night over Lake Superior, aided by
embedded pieces of upper level energy, will generate some showers
and isolated thunderstorms, along the south shore. Some showers
and isolated thunderstorms are also possible over the Arrowhead.
Temps will be below normal. Upper level and surface ridging move
overhead late Wednesday night and Thursday.

By Thursday afternoon, the ridging departs allowing a southwest
flow to set up over the Northland, through Friday, with a return
to above normal temps.

A quasi-zonal flow aloft pushes into the region Friday night and
continues through Monday. Fast moving pieces of energy in this
upper flow will cruise past the area during this time and bring
opportunities for showers, with a few thunderstorms during the
day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

A cold front will move past the terminals through tonight. A tight
pressure gradient ahead of, and behind the front, will lead to
gusty winds through much of the forecast. There will be a break
from the gusts for a few hours in the late evening and overnight
hours. Scattered to broken cumulus field from 4k to 7k
feet through much of the forecast with VFR. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible, especially near INL, HIB, BRD and
HYR. Low confidence in timing and have a VCSH or VCTS mention.
Behind the front Wednesday morning, MVFR cigs are expected as the
gusty winds resume through the rest of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

Gusty winds have reached the near shore waters, with some gale
force gusts due to thunderstorms. Due to the isolated nature of
these gale force gusts, will not make any changes to the current
Gale Warning, or the Small Craft Advisories. Will address adding a
Small Craft Advisory to the outer Apostle Islands after the Gale
Warning expires. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
along the near shore waters again on Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. Higher wind gusts may occur in the vicinity of any
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  68  50  70 /  20  40   0   0
INL  52  66  48  68 /  20  70  10  10
BRD  53  70  48  72 /  20   0   0   0
HYR  50  68  46  70 /  20  30  10   0
ASX  53  71  50  72 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-
     140>148.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ150.

&&

DISCUSSION...GSF
AVIATION...GSF
MARINE...GSF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
416 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-081030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
416 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this evening. Gusty winds, brief heavy
rain and occasional lightning are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, and
Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-081030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
416 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Gusty winds will continue tonight with some occasional gale force
gusts to 35 knots. The Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect. See the latest marine weather products for
details.

Scattered thunderstorms will persist into the evening. Occasional
lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Gusty winds will continue through Wednesday afternoon. Conditions
will be hazardous to smaller vessels. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through Wednesday morning.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Occasional lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain
are the main hazards.

GSF

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
513 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

WIZ002-003-008-072245-
Bayfield WI-Sawyer WI-Ashland WI-
513 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Bayfield, southwestern Ashland and northeastern Sawyer Counties
through 545 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clam Lake, or 20 miles northeast of Chippewa Flowage East, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow unsecured
         objects around. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Bayfield, southwestern Ashland and northeastern Sawyer Counties,
including the following locations... Day Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 4619 9109 4631 9096 4609 9044 4598 9061
      4598 9068 4594 9068 4593 9069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 310DEG 35KT 4619 9095

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Britt/GF