Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
638 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Summary...Rain showers this morning to bring widespread light
rainfall amounts to the area, then clearing and becoming breezy
this afternoon. Another cold front tonight to bring some more
light rain showers to the northern zones, but then another breezy
dry day on Thursday. Dry weather returns for the weekend and early
next week with warming temperatures. Precipitation chances
increase once again about mid week next week.

Rain showers moving through the area this morning are bringing
some light, but still widespread rainfall to the area. I expect
this rainfall to continue moving to the east in the wake of a weak
cold front this morning, and should exit the forecast area to the
east by late morning. Rainfall amounts for most locations should
only be a few hundredths of an inch, though a lucky few locations
may get more. This band of rainfall is being generated by a nice
band of frontogenesis right behind an otherwise weak cold front
that is moving through the area this morning. Once the rainfall
moves out of the area, model soundings show we should get into
some deep mixing and steep low level lapse rates, which should
bring down gusty winds for the late morning and afternoon hours.
Portions of NE MN mix to 700mb, tapping into 30-35 knot winds. I
currently have wind gusts up to 30 mph for the areas most likely
to get strong winds. Another weak front will move through the area
tonight, but with drier air, is only going to produce some light
rain showers or sprinkles north of the Iron Range. We will have
another deep mixing day with gusty winds once again on Thursday,
though with weaker winds aloft the surface winds will be a little
weaker. High temperatures both today and Thursday will be slightly
cooler than the last couple days. Today will get into the mid 70s
to low 80s, and then after a fresh push of cooler air, Thursday
will stay in the 70s and even upper 60s. A ridge of high pressure
builds into the area for Friday for generally quieter conditions
and another day mostly in the 70s for highs. Our coolest night in
a while should happen Thursday night, with overnight lows mostly
in the 40s.

Return flow begins to set up on Saturday as the surface ridge
slides off to our southeast. The upper level pattern also begins
to shift as the trough axis we have over the area now also shifts
to the east and ridging begins to build over the area. The
building heights and general south-southwest return flow sets up
over the area through the weekend, which will result in gradually
warming temperatures into early next week. The models are hinting
at some precipitation chances in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame
as some decent upper level shortwaves move our direction,
flattening the upper level ridge and perhaps managing to run some
showers and thunderstorms across the area. However, there is very
little consistency at this time and do not have a lot of
confidence in actually getting precipitation until later in the
week. High temperatures will be back into the 80s everywhere
starting on Sunday, and continuing through the first half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

A band of light rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
moving through the terminals this morning has brought
predominantly VFR conditions, though a few locations have gotten
briefly lower conditions. Have included VCTS for KDLH and KHYR, as
they are the only sites that might still get thunder this morning.
These showers will continue to move east across the area, but
should move out of the terminals by 17z this morning. VFR
conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF forecast. Winds
to become west as the rain moves out and should increase to 10 to
15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots for some of the terminals
this afternoon before diminishing again by 01z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Southwest winds over the lake this morning will increase during
the day today and may gust around 20 knots for parts of the lake
at times. These stronger winds will produce building waves along
the North Shore, and may push into the 2 to 4 foot range north of
Grand Marais at times. Showers moving over the lake this morning
will move out of the area by late morning, leaving clearing skies
for the afternoon. Winds to shift to the west for Thursday and
increase into the 10 to 20 knot range behind a cold front. A Small
Craft Advisory may be needed during the daytime and evening hours
if the winds continue to appear this strong over the Lake. Winds
and waves should diminish overnight Thursday night and into
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  59  73  50 /  60  10   0   0
INL  77  53  67  47 /  10  30  20  10
BRD  82  59  77  48 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  80  58  77  48 /  60  10   0   0
ASX  82  61  77  51 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
742 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

MNZ038-WIZ006-007-111315-
Pine MN-Washburn WI-Burnett WI-
742 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Pine,
Washburn and Burnett Counties through 815 AM CDT...

At 741 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cloverton, to 9 miles north of Grantsburg.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Webster around 755 AM CDT.
  Danbury around 800 AM CDT.
  Minong and Webb Lake Wisconsin around 810 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Markville, Saint
Croix State Park, Mckenzie Lake, Minong Flowage, Phantom Lake, Big
Sand Lake, Oakland, Chengwatana State Forest, Birch Island Lake and
Lampson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4583 9305 4616 9248 4616 9155 4611 9155
      4574 9211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 259DEG 43KT 4609 9233 4591 9264

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
817 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

WIZ006>008-111345-
Sawyer WI-Washburn WI-Burnett WI-
817 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Washburn,
southeastern Burnett and northwestern Sawyer Counties through 845 AM
CDT...

At 817 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Minong, to near Hertel.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Minong around 825 AM CDT.
  Spooner and Shell Lake around 840 AM CDT.
  Hayward around 845 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Spooner Lake,
Mckenzie Lake, Springbrook, Grindstone Lake, Lampson, Nelson Lake,
Sarona, Sissabagama Lake, Totagatic Flowage and Lac Courte Oreilles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4573 9215 4573 9227 4610 9196 4616 9139
      4616 9120 4564 9163 4564 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 267DEG 37KT 4605 9194 4572 9220

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
853 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

WIZ003-007-008-111430-
Sawyer WI-Ashland WI-Washburn WI-
853 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Washburn,
southwestern Ashland, and Sawyer Counties through 930 AM CDT...

At 852 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Round Lake, to 6 miles northwest of Stone
Lake, to near Spooner, to near Cumberland. Movement was east at 65
mph.

HAZARD...Winds of up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Hayward around 900 AM CDT.
  Round Lake and Little Round Lake around 905 AM CDT.
  Chippewa Flowage West and Birchwood around 910 AM CDT.
  Chippewa Flowage East, Radisson, Couderay and Chief Lake on
  Chippewa Flowage around 915 AM CDT.
  New Post around 920 AM CDT.
  Winter, Exeland and Glidden around 925 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Reserve, Spooner
Lake, Northwoods Beach, Chief Lake, Lac Courte Oreilles Reservation,
Edgewater, Deer Lake, Little Sissabagama Lake, Grindstone Lake and
Teal Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4567 9203 4582 9193 4591 9177 4608 9130
      4615 9046 4605 9049 4598 9059 4598 9068
      4592 9068 4564 9107 4564 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1352Z 263DEG 58KT 4603 9126 4591 9164 4582 9180 4559
9195

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Huyck

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
927 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

WIZ008-009-111500-
Price WI-Sawyer WI-
927 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Price
and southern Sawyer Counties through 1000 AM CDT...

At 926 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Chippewa Flowage East, to near Couderay, to 6
miles west of Exeland. Movement was east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Chippewa Flowage East and New Post around 930 AM CDT.
  Winter around 940 AM CDT.
  Park Falls around 1000 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Connors Lake,
Loretta, Lac Courte Oreilles Reservation, Butternut Lake, Blaisdell
Lake, Deer Lake, Chippewa Lake, Ojibwa and Chief Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4568 9154 4574 9147 4596 9130 4598 9043
      4564 9074 4564 9154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1426Z 264DEG 51KT 4591 9117 4576 9128 4568 9138

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Huyck

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-111700-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca-
Central St. Louis-Southern Lake-Southern Cook-North Cass-
South Itasca-South Cass-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-
Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine-
Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella,
Bigfork, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Walker,
Grand Rapids, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, Duluth,
Pine City, and Hinckley
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA DUE TO LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS...

Dry conditions and breezy winds will lead to near critical fire
weather conditions today. West winds of 10 to 18 mph with gusts
of 20 to 27 mph are forecast for this afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity values of 25 to 30 percent are also expected. Together,
these conditions could lead to the rapid spread of fires. Check
burning restrictions and fire danger before burning.

For more information on burning restrictions for Minnesota, see
www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/firerating_restrictions.html.

Huyck

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
957 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

WIZ008-009-111530-
Price WI-Sawyer WI-
957 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Price
and southeastern Sawyer Counties through 1030 AM CDT...

At 957 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles southwest of Park Falls, to 7 miles
southeast of Winter, to 9 miles east of Exeland. Movement was east at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Fifield around 1025 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Connors Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4589 9080 4590 9023 4564 9068 4564 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 265DEG 31KT 4585 9073 4575 9091 4566 9105

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Huyck