Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
438 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 438 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms over the Arrowhead and Lake
Superior will continue to slide to the southeast this afternoon,
but new convection may develop over northern Minnesota over the
next few hours. These storms may produce large hail and damaging
winds. Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected
Friday night, but then mostly dry conditions are expected through
at least the first half of next week.

The convective evolution this evening is being a real pain, as
mid clouds that moved in from North Dakota has slowed down the
heating and destabilization of northern Minnesota, slowing down
the initiation of the convection that we expected to have already
developed this afternoon. There is still plenty of CAPE and shear
out there, just not in the right location to interact with the
front that is slowly sliding into the area from the northwest. All
of our severe risk is conditional upon getting new convection to
form somewhere over northern Minnesota, which is beginning to look
a little iffy at this time. We still have confidence that there
will be storms this evening, but confidence is poor in timing and
location given the details of what we are seeing out there. This
system will continue to slide southeast, and I expect all
potential for storms to have moved out of the area by 10 or 11 pm
this evening, if not earlier.

Once this system slides south of the area we should have a
quieter and cooler day for Thursday and even Friday. Highs should
only be in the upper 70s to low 80s for both days with afternoon
minimum RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range.

It looks like we will have another chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the Friday night and early Saturday time range,
but this depends on the timing and track of a shortwave that drops
out of Canada and across the forecast area during the evening
hours. There is fairly good model agreement for now, but this is
convection and I expect some shifts in timing and even track
before it gets here. That shortwave brings in a decent bubble of
cool air in at 850mb, so after it moves through expect some more
cooler temperatures - mid 70s to mid 80s - for the weekend with a
ridge of high pressure over the area. Temperatures to gradually
warm early next week as that slides off to the east and upper
level ridging builds into the area once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Convection is the main concern for the next 6-9 hours over the
terminals, with tempo groups for both an initial set that will
continue to affect KDLH and KHYR for the next couple hours,
followed by another round now initiating around KINL and will
spread southeast through the afternoon and early evening hours.
Strongest storms should bring damaging winds and large hail, along
with at least IFR if not LIFR conditions with the heavy rainfall.
Once the storms move out of the area VFR conditions should return
to the area. Expect that we may get some fog and stratus for KDLH
and KHYR again tonight, but uncertainty is kind of low at this
time and have put in some lower visibilities and stratus for now,
but expect to be modifying this with later updates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Convection remains the main concern for the forecast. The current
convection over northern MN will move over western Lake Superior
and then slide to the southeast during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This round of storms may bring damaging, gale force
gusts or higher, large hail, and locally higher waves. Outside of
storms, do not expect waves to get above 2 feet through tonight.
After tonight winds turn to the northwest and should settle down
to 10kts or less for Thursday, and then swing around to the west
to southwest for Friday, but still less than 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  80  55  81 /  60   0   0  20
INL  57  77  50  83 /  20   0  10  50
BRD  62  81  56  83 /  40   0   0  10
HYR  61  81  51  80 /  80   0   0  10
ASX  62  80  52  82 /  80   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
516 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-292230-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
516 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this evening over
northern Minnesota and adjoining areas of Ontario, and move
southeast through northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin this
evening. Some storms will likely become severe with hail up to
baseball size, damaging wind gusts exceeding 75 mph, frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rainfall which may lead to
localized flash flooding. There is also a small chance of a few
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size,
rainfall amounts and any storm damage to the National Weather
Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-292230-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
516 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to move over western Lake Superior
this evening. A few storms may be strong to severe with large
hail, damaging wind gusts up to 50 knots, frequent cloud- to-
water lightning, and locally heavy rainfall which may reduce
visibility below one- half mile. Wind and waves may become large
and chaotic around and in storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon and evening.

LE

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
316 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

MNZ011-019-282045-
Central St. Louis-North St. Louis-
316 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ST. LOUIS
COUNTY...

At 315 PM CDT, an area of strong thunderstorms was near Buyck, or 22
miles northwest of Lake Vermilion, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail, heavy downpours, and
occasional cloud to ground lightning can be expected with these
storms.

These storms will be near...
  Buyck around 325 PM CDT.
  Lake Vermilion around 335 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Black Duck Lake,
Soudan Underground Mine State Park, Soudan, Sand Point Lake, Loon
Lake, Echo Lake, Cummings Lake, High Lake, Vermillion Lake
Reservation and Trout Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
these storms pass. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4841 9245 4835 9247 4822 9237 4825 9227
      4832 9231 4833 9230 4805 9179 4801 9180
      4782 9212 4773 9258 4821 9310 4825 9309
      4843 9249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 319DEG 39KT 4818 9263

JDS

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