Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Summary: increasing chances of showers and storms are expected
this afternoon and evening, some of which will be strong to
severe. Then, drier conditions are expected for Saturday and
Sunday, which will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions. The
rest of the week will continue to be very warm, with off-and-on
chances of showers and storms.

This afternoon and evening: chances of showers and storms will
increase from west to east as a mid-level shortwave impulse
translates eastward. This shortwave is ahead of a cold front that
will move eastward today through tonight, which could result in
additional convection. Already, some showers and thunderstorms
have formed over north-central Minnesota, with some gusts up to 60
mph already being reported near Birchdale. The environment
continues to be conducive to large hail and damaging wind gusts,
with strengthening upper-level flow, steepening low-level lapse
rates, and mixed-layer CAPE between 1500-2500 J/kg. The threat for
severe storms will continue through the evening hours, and
perhaps into the overnight hours, although instability looks to
diminish by then. Deep-layer shear will continue to be decent,
generally around 30 to 40 knots. Some heavy rainfall will be
possible with this activity as well, with total accumulations
between 0.50" to 1.00" possible, especially over northwest
Wisconsin where the activity is expected to become more
widespread.

The cold front will pass through the region late tonight into
early Saturday morning, which will help usher in drier air behind
it. Northwest winds look to strengthen, with gusts to around 20
to 25 mph. This, coupled with low relative humidities, will lead
to near-critical fire weather conditions for Saturday afternoon
and early evening. The severity of these fire weather conditions
will be dependent on tonight's convection. If rainfall becomes
widespread, this will help tamper down these conditions. Dry
conditions will continue for Sunday, as well, so these near-
critical fire weather conditions may continue into Sunday.

For Monday through Friday next week: very warm conditions will
continue as a broad upper-level ridge will be in place, centered
over the Intermountain West states. Broad thermal ridging will
result in high temperatures into the 80s and even some lower 90s
as well. There will be some off-and-on chances of showers and
thunderstorms for late Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Thunderstorms will be affecting many of the terminals through mid
day Saturday as a cold front moves slowly through the area. Other
than HYR, have a VCTS mention as confidence is low in timing of
storms. Some BR with MVFR visibilities occurring at DLH at the
start of the forecast, and is possible at BRD, HIB and HYR, but
will leave out for now as timing is in question. After frontal
passage, VFR and gusty winds are forecast at all sites until near
02Z before subsiding.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across western Lake
Superior through the overnight as a cold front makes its way
eastward. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with
strong and erratic wind gusts as high as 50 knots, heavy
rainfall, and cloud-to-water lightning. Variable winds tonight,
with wave heights only around 2 feet or less. Winds will turn more
westerly Saturday after the cold front passes through, sustained
between 10 to 15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots. Wave heights
will continue to be around 2 feet or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  86  60  87 /  60  10   0   0
INL  59  84  56  84 /  50   0   0   0
BRD  66  87  59  90 /  80  10   0   0
HYR  66  87  55  89 /  90  80   0   0
ASX  66  89  59  89 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JTS
AVIATION...GSF
MARINE...JTS/GSF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1005 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-250315-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1005 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms remain possible this evening and into the overnight
hours and some may be strong to severe. The strongest storms will
be capable of hail up to quarter size and gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Very low relative humidity values and breezy northwest winds will
lead to near-critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon
across much of the Northland.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Monday through Thursday next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters may be needed late this evening and tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-250315-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
1005 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight risk for a few strong to severe storms across
western Lake Superior this evening and into tonight. The strongest
storms capable of large hail, strong winds up to 40 knots, heavy
rainfall which my reduce visibility and frequent cloud-to-water
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is chance for thunderstorms most of next week from Monday
to Thursday.

BJH

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
402 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

MNZ038-WIZ001-006>008-240930-
Pine-Douglas-Sawyer-Washburn-Burnett-
402 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL PINE...
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...WASHBURN...NORTHEASTERN BURNETT AND WESTERN
SAWYER COUNTIES...

At 401 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Danbury, to Webb Lake WI, to Trego, to 7 miles southwest of
Couderay, and moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail, torrential rainfall, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Trego around 405 AM CDT.
  Radisson and Couderay around 415 AM CDT.
  Chief Lake on Chippewa Flowage around 420 AM CDT.
  New Post around 425 AM CDT.
  Hayward, Chippewa Flowage West, Chippewa Flowage East, Wascott,
  Minong and Gordon around 430 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Reserve, Spooner
Lake, Northwoods Beach, Cozy Corner, Mckenzie Lake, Minong Flowage,
Edgewater, Little Sissabagama Lake, Springbrook and Ojibwa.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
these storms pass. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4592 9257 4620 9223 4624 9176 4590 9089
      4564 9142 4564 9156
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 229DEG 31KT 4599 9241 4599 9212 4589 9186 4574
9143

Huyck