Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
650 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

Summary: A more active and cooler weather pattern starts tonight
with several cold fronts and areas of low pressure affecting the
region. Scattered showers and storms will accompany a cold front
as it propagates eastward across Minnesota tonight. Storms may
refire ahead of the front central Minnesota into northwest
Wisconsin Thursday afternoon with dry and breezy conditions over
far northern Minnesota. Temperatures trend cooler Friday through
the weekend with several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Warmer temps return again by the middle of next week.

Late this afternoon a broken line of showers and thunderstorms
stretched from southeast Manitoba to southwest Minnesota and
eastern South Dakota. Storms immediately to our west and northwest
seem to be well ahead of the cold front in an area of low to
modest CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg. The area along the front
remains capped with a MLCAPE corridor of 1000 to 2500 J/kg over
eastern North Dakota extending south into eastern South Dakota
where greater instability existed. High-res models are struggling
with the convection ahead of the front and don’t seem very
excited about convective potential along the boundary itself. Have
raised POPs a little since this morning, but still below 50
percent given uncertainty in coverage of the storms. Precipitation
amounts where storms occur of 0.10 up to 0.50 inches is possible
and a few locations may see even higher amounts. A stout 700 mb
cap is in place ahead of the front and is expected to remain in
place based on RAP soundings until around the time of frontal
passage. I’m skeptical we’ll see much activity with the front.

The nocturnal low-level jet is forecast to nose into central
Minnesota tonight and may provide a sufficient enhancement to
convergence for elevated storms tonight and early Thursday
morning. Should storms develop there will be a risk of large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rain isn’t out of the
question, either as storms may train along the edge of the jet.
The front any any outflow from overnight storms is forecast to
stretch southwest Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin late Thursday
morning. Showers and storms may be ongoing through the morning
near the front and are expected to strengthen/redevelop along the
boundary during the afternoon. A few strong to severe storms are
possible. Breezy conditions are expected behind the boundary over
northern Minnesota where deep mixing will result in RH values of
20 to 30 percent in the afternoon. Winds will be westerly at 8 to
15 mph and there may be a few wind gusts in the low 20s. The dry
and breezy conditions will increase the fire weather risk,
especially if those areas don’t receive any rainfall tonight.

Another cold front will move into the region Friday with a
surface low to move eastward across northern Ontario. A tight
pressure gradient will lead to strong and gusty winds Friday into
Friday evening. Cold air advection aloft should result in a robust
cumulus field with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
or two. Temperatures will trend cooler with highs in the 60s north
and the low 80s south. Temps will be in the low 70s to around 80
on Saturday.

A few shortwave troughs will move over the region late Saturday
night through Monday and will push temps below normal with chances
of showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday will start
trending warmer once again and a few showers and storms are
possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

An area of thunderstorms were moving into north-central Minnesota
this evening, well out in front of a cold front that was still in
the Red River Valley. These storms were strong and may produce
hail, up to the size of pennies, as they continue east over the
next 2 to 4 hours. Ceilings and visibilities will drop as the
stronger storms move through, especially at KINL/KHIB. The storms
are currently expected to weaken by late evening and may dissipate
altogether with time. However, the cold front will be moving east
and could initiate more storms but confidence in that occurring is
low so we only have the evening mention of storms in the TAFs
except at KHYR. There were some indications some lower
ceilings/fog could form as the gradient weakens and winds diminish
later tonight. However, the RAP shows the drier air prevailing and
we did not bite on the lower ceilings/fog at this time. More
thunderstorms may form Thursday as the cold front continues to
move east, mostly likely over portions of northern Wisconsin.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

A cold front over the eastern Dakotas this afternoon will move
eastward with time tonight and Thursday. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. A few storms may be
strong with wind gusts to 40 knots and small hail. Winds will
turn westerly behind the front for Thursday and may become gusty
in the afternoon and evening. West and southwest winds will
continue on Friday as an area of low pressure moves east across
far northern Ontario and pulls another cold front across Lake
Superior. Sustained winds of around 15 knots are possible and
there may be gusts as high as 25 knots, which would create
conditions hazardous to smaller vessels Friday into Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  83  59  73 /  50  10   0  10
INL  58  83  53  67 /  50   0   0  50
BRD  63  86  60  78 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  61  84  56  79 /  50  30  10  10
ASX  58  85  58  77 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Huyck

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