Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Summary: Hot temperatures continue into the afternoon with heat
advisories over our southwest counties. A couple areas of storms
have been forming along a line of convergence south of 210. There
are additional storms forming in northwest WI along some lingering
boundaries. We are in a marginal risk today for some severe weather
with the primary threats being large hail and damaging winds. Storms
will slowly diminish overnight and areas near the Lake may receive
some dense fog. Another round of showers and storms is expected for
tomorrow. Drier conditions return Saturday.

A cold front was observed sliding across northern MN this morning.
This boundary is expected to stall out over NW WI this afternoon and
evening. South of this boundary thermal ridging into our CWA along
with southwesterly flow will bring hot and humid conditions to our
southwestern counties. Heat indicies for southern Cass, Crow Wing,
Pine, and Burnett may reach triple digits! We have a heat advisory
out for these counties and the bordering counties have a special
weather statement for excessive heat.

With the warm air protruding into the region once again today we
expect a lake breeze to form once again off of Lake Superior today.
As the boundary rushes inland it will encounter a warm and moist
environment ideal for thunderstorm development. Unstable air will be
in place south of the synoptic frontal boundary with MLCAPEs rising
into the 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg range. One of the more limiting factors
for severe weather in the area is the lack of deep layer shear with
our bulk shear in the 20-30 kt range. The SPC has kept NW WI in a
marginal threat for severe weather today. This seems like a good bet
given the lack of synoptic drivers over the region today. Mid level
lapse rates are between 6-7 C/km and could promote some hail growth.
Gusty winds from outflows within a steep low level lapse rate
environment could also cause isolated damage. Additionally, the
morning sounding over MPX recorded 1.29 inches of PW which is
slightly above the 75th percentile for this time of year. This could
lead to some sparse spots of heavy downpours.

Overnight, we have several areas of interest to watch. The
remaining moisture and warm temperates over Lake Superior will
likely generate some dense fog near the Lake. A few of the models
are strongly suggesting that the fog will seep further inland and
may linger through the early morning hours. Much further out west
over the High Plains a QLCS is likely to be moving across the
region and towards northern MN. Most of the models are hinting at
the line of storms weakening and sliding to the southeast as they
approach. This scenario seems the most likely with an upper level
ridge still in place over our region and the majority of the low
level jet being shunted off to the southeast. While the strongest
forcing is expected to out run these storms we will still likely
see some rain and embedded storms move in during the morning. As
we head into the afternoon and evening, the cold front that
generated the storms over the High Plains will pivot over the
region and could spark additional storms. As of this update our
region is not highlighted within a severe category by SPC.
However, there are a few models trending towards a corridor of
higher instability within the southeast sector of our CWA. We may
be bumped up a category with the next issuance of severe outlooks.

Heading into the weekend things look much drier with a surface high
pressure moving across the Midwest. Highs will fluctuate around the
80s for the most part with overnight lows dropping into the 50s.
There is a slim chance of some precipitation Sunday evening as an
upper level jet moves over head with a few vort maxes. However,
there is not much model agreement at this time. The better chance
for some widespread rain looks to be into the Thursday time frame. A
vertically stacked low moves across southern Canada with its cold
front branched across the Upper Midwest providing a chance for rain
and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

A mixed bag of weather with this set of TAFs. Across the
International Border a field mostly MVFR cumulus clouds continues to
linger over INL. Dry air should eventually overtake the clouds in
place and disperse them as the parent low feature propagates to the
northeast. Farther south a line of convergence has set up across BRD
and extends east into northern WI. We have seen one batch of storms
develop along this boundary and satellite reveals that this area is
not quite done yet. A lake breeze is expected to move in later this
afternoon and further spark convection into HYR. Overnight fog is
expected to seep out of Lake Superior and climb into DLH. Lastly, a
decaying complex of storms over the High Plains will make their way
into the region by the morning hours and bring additional chances
for rain and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Satellite reveals some fog still lingering along the North Shore
this afternoon. We expect fog to expand once again overnight and we
will likely expand the advisory to include the South Shore. Isolated
convection is slowly populating across NW WI and the vast majority
of it will likely stay south of the Lake. Saxon Harbor has the
better odds of seeing storms then the other near shore waters.
Additionally, overnight a northeast wind will enhance and waves 2-4
ft will build along the Apostle Islands. A small craft advisory has
been issued for this hazard. As we head into the morning hours the
advisory will likely be expanded to the head of the Lake and
potentially the portions of the North Shore due to wind gusts
upwards of 25 kts and building waves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  62  51  81 /  20  60  40   0
INL  60  81  53  82 /  20  70  30   0
BRD  67  85  56  84 /  30  60  10   0
HYR  62  88  54  83 /  40  70  50   0
ASX  49  66  50  82 /  30  50  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ006.

MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ033-034-038.

LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140>145.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM CDT Friday for LSZ150.

&&

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
326 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-112030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
326 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon, to 7 PM
this evening for southern Cass, Crow Wing, Pine and Burnett
counties. Heat indices will be around 100 degrees through this
timeframe.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening over much of northwest Wisconsin, as well as
southeast Carlton and Pine counties in Minnesota. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main hazards. There is a chance of
thunderstorms elsewhere in northeast Minnesota through tonight.
Gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and frequent lightning are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There are chances of thunderstorms Friday and Friday night, as
well as Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters may be needed through the evening.

LSZ121-140>148-150-112030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
326 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the nearshore waters into tonight.
Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and higher waves may
be found near the storms.

Areas of fog will affect the nearshore waters, especially the
North Shore down into the Twin Ports. The visibility may increase
for a time late this afternoon and evening before they drop again
overnight. Fog is also expected to develop along the South Shore
later tonight. Dense Fog Advisories are in effect.

Increasing northeast winds tonight will build waves, especially
along the Outer Apostle Islands where a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Gusty northeast winds Friday may lead to hazardous conditions for
small craft, especially from Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to
Port Wing and the Outer Apostle Islands.

Areas of fog will linger through the morning.

There will be chances for more thunderstorms Friday into Sunday.

Melde

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
148 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MNZ035>037-WIZ001>004-007>009-110000-
Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton and South St. Louis-Douglas-
Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
Including the cities of Hill City, Aitkin, Duluth, Superior,
Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Spooner, Hayward,
and Phillips
148 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO 100 DEGREES...

Afternoon high temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints of
65-70 degrees are will occur today, resulting in heat indices of
95 to 100 degrees. It will be cooler close to Lake Superior due to
weak off lake winds.

Drink plenty of fluids. If working outside, take breaks often. Stay
in an air- conditioning if possible, stay out of the sun, and
check up on relatives and neighbors. People and pets should never
be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.

Melde

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
332 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

WIZ002-102045-
Bayfield-
332 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...

At 331 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Drummond, or 27 miles
north of Chippewa Flowage East, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch diameter hail and occasional cloud to ground lightning can
be expected with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Namekagon Lake and Namekagon around 345 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Grand View and Lake
Owen.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4630 9130 4646 9122 4639 9092 4629 9092
      4616 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 297DEG 9KT 4632 9112

KSE

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
438 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

WIZ004-009-102200-
Price-Iron-
438 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN IRON AND
NORTHEASTERN PRICE COUNTIES...

At 438 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
6 miles northwest of Lac Du Flambeau, to 7 miles east of Fifield, and
moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail, heavy downpours, and frequent
cloud to ground lightning can be expected with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Turtle Flambeau Flowage, Fifield, and Pike Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
these storms pass. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4598 9004 4582 9005 4578 9015 4588 9046
      4598 9032 4598 9030 4599 9030 4607 9020
      4615 8995 4615 8993 4599 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 283DEG 15KT 4604 8993 4591 9028

Melde

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
452 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

WIZ004-102215-
Iron-
452 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY...

At 451 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Lac Du Flambeau, or 11
miles east of Turtle Flambeau Flowage, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, penny size hail, torrential rainfall, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manitowish.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4598 9006 4613 9004 4614 8993 4599 8993
      4598 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 274DEG 13KT 4604 8995

Melde