Small Craft Advisory 16, NWS Duluth, MN

137 
WHUS73 KDLH 022002
MWWDLH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
302 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

LSZ144-145-030000-
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210403T0000Z/
Two Harbors to Duluth MN-Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-
302 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds sustained to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts.

* WHERE...Two Harbors to Duluth MN and Duluth MN to Port Wing WI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PA

643 
WHUS73 KDLH 022356
MWWDLH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
656 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

LSZ144-145-030100-
/O.EXP.KDLH.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210403T0000Z/
Two Harbors to Duluth MN-Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-
656 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Winds have decreased over western Lake Superior, thus the Small
Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1229 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

Per coordination with MIFC, issued a Red Flag Warning for Koochiching,
Cass, Itasca, Crow Wing, Aitkin and Pine counties in Minnesota
until 7 pm CDT this evening. Near critical fire weather conditions
will continue to be monitored elsewhere across northwest Wisconsin
and northeast Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

Summary: Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across
the region today. Warm and dry weather is expected this weekend
with some rain and thunderstorm chances next week.

A warm front will bring warmer weather to the region today with
highs in the 50s. A tight pressure gradient will cause a low level
jet to develop along with gusty winds at the surface. The
combination of southerly winds sustained at around 15 to 20 mph,
gusting to 30 mph, along with dry min RH values from 20 to 30%
will combine to produce near-critical fire weather conditions
today. One caveat for both the high temperature and min RH
forecast is an upper level short wave that will pass through this
afternoon and bring increasing clouds. This could potentially
result in slightly lower high temperatures and higher min RH
values than currently forecast, but the effect is not expected to
be significant. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke product also
suggests a bit of smoke may advect into the region today as well,
potentially producing a bit of an afternoon haze.

A broad upper level ridging pattern will influence the weather
through the weekend and early next week, bringing temperatures
well above average. Highs in the 60s will be likely for most areas
with some 70s possible, especially south. Cooler temperatures can
be expected near Lake Superior, especially Sunday and Monday as
onshore east to northeasterly flow develops. A passing shortwave
Sunday into Monday may bring a chance for a few light showers.

Late Sunday night into Monday, more organized rain chances are
suggested by most global models due to a passing upper level wave
and warm air advection associated with a warm front just south of
the region. Several hundred to about 1K J/kg of MUCAPE will
introduce the possibility of thunder, but with negligible wind
shear, severe weather is not anticipated. A more organized low
pressure system is possible mid to late week with additional
rainfall chances. Long-range models currently keep the bulk of the
rainfall south of our region. Temperatures will cool a bit next
week due to a combination of slightly cooler air advecting into
the region, more cloud cover, and predominantly onshore flow from
Lake Superior. The net result will be highs in the 40s near Lake
Superior with 50s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

VFR conditions expected through the period. LLWS is expected to
affect most terminals except HYR for the next three to four hours,
but it will diminish late this morning as winds mix down to the
surface. Southerly winds will be gusty today, especially during
the afternoon with gusts to around 25 knots. Winds will decrease
fairly quickly this evening. LLWS may affect HYR for a few hours
just after sunset, but LLWS is not expected at Minnesota terminals
due to a slackening pressure gradient. The wind direction will
shift from southerly to westerly and eventually northwesterly
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

South to southeast winds will increase across the nearshore waters
of western Lake Superior today. Winds will be sustained at 10-15
kts with gusts of 20-25kts. Small Craft Advisories are not
expected at this time. Winds will become southwesterly on Saturday
at 5-10 kts. Waves will be two feet or less today and Saturday,
with the exception for wave heights of 2 to 4 feet possible near
Grand Portage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  35  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
INL  56  30  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  54  34  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  54  35  63  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036-038.

LS...None.
&&

UPDATE...PA
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...PA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-031730-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 7pm CDT for Koochiching,
Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin and Pine Counties. For the
remainder of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin
near critical fire weather conditions will continue today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Monday. No severe weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Enter a Spotter information statement here

LSZ121-140>148-150-031730-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Monday. No severe weather is expected.

WFO DLH

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

MNZ011-012-019>021-037-WIZ001>004-006>009-030000-
North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-Central St. Louis-
Southern Lake-Southern Cook-Carlton and South St. Louis-Douglas-
Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
Including the cities of Ely, Isabella, Hibbing, Two Harbors,
Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Duluth, Superior, Washburn, Bayfield,
Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, Spooner, Hayward, and Phillips
1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across all of
northwest Wisconsin and most of northeast Minnesota today.
Southerly winds will increase to sustained at around 15 mph with
gusts from 25 to 30 mph. When combined with dry conditions, near
critical fire weather conditions are possible. Check with your
local authorities for any fire restrictions.

PA