Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Duluth, MN

450 
WWUS53 KDLH 270407
SVSDLH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1107 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

WIC007-031-270430-
/O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-210727T0430Z/
Bayfield WI-Douglas WI-
1107 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL BAYFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 1107 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Poplar, or 18
miles southeast of Superior, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Lake Nebagamon and Brule.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4662 9203 4666 9199 4669 9198 4669 9196
      4670 9192 4670 9189 4671 9188 4673 9185
      4660 9146 4636 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0407Z 301DEG 33KT 4658 9176 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kossen

020 
WWUS53 KDLH 270417
SVSDLH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1117 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

WIC007-031-270430-
/O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-210727T0430Z/
Bayfield WI-Douglas WI-
1117 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL BAYFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 1117 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lake
Nebagamon, or 25 miles southeast of Superior, moving southeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hawthorne, Lake Nebagamon, Maple, Brule, Poplar, Wentworth, and
Blueberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4654 9191 4661 9188 4663 9186 4665 9186
      4665 9185 4666 9183 4667 9179 4668 9176
      4660 9146 4636 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 301DEG 33KT 4653 9164 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kossen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
955 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Summary...The main concern this forecast is this evening's
convection with the Enhanced risk of severe storms we have. After
that, we have warm weather continuing with chance for more showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday, and again on Friday.

The convection this evening is an unusual Enhanced risk for this
area, which we do not typically see more than a couple of days a
summer around here. There is a low pressure system over central
North Dakota this afternoon, with a warm front draped east into
our area, generally from the Brainerd Lakes region east into
northwest Wisconsin. Along and south of this boundary the airmass
is strongly unstable, with surface based CAPE values already over
2k j/Kg, with models indicating it may get up over 3k j/Kg at some
point this evening. Sounding from this morning show an Elevated
Mixed Layer that should be over our area this evening that is also
showing as a drier area on satellite imagery. This EML will
produce steep lapse rates in the mid levels, even as it also
produces the capping that we are seeing at the lower levels this
afternoon. Model soundings show that we should have a long
hodograph this evening with moderate to strong winds aloft to help
lengthen it, despite the weaker winds in the boundary layer. This
all shows that if we can get convection to fire, severe storms
are likely, with very large hail and strong winds, as already
depicted in the SPC day one severe outlook. We may have a very
weak shortwave moving along the North Dakota/Manitoba line this
afternoon which has been generating an area of accas and -tsra
over northwest Minnesota this afternoon. This is likely based in
the 700-600mb Warm air advection region, and we do not expect this
area to grow significantly or become rooted in the surface based
instability, at least in part due to its position relative to the
surface boundary. However, ahead of the surface low over eastern
North Dakota we have some decent pressure falls over northwest
Minnesota and would expect some new development in this area
sometime in the next few hours. Models have been wildly
inconsistent in depicting this event, with the NAMNest and FV3SAR
showing development over NW MN and eastern ND by 01Z, then
sliding southeast across the forecast area, but the HRRR not
developing anything until after 03Z, and with much less coverage
than either of the other models. Uncertainty in timing and
evolution is still pretty high, even as of late afternoon.
Unfortunately, we are in the wait and see mode, and we will have
to see how things evolve this evening. There may be some lingering
showers into early Tuesday morning, but otherwise expect the bulk
of the convection to be out of the forecast area shortly after
midnight.

Tuesday should be relatively quiet with the boundary having
shifted south of the forecast area and weak ridging over the area.
Highs to get back into the 80s for the day, though slightly
cooler than today.

We have another chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday, and while we have a small threat for severe weather, am
not as concerned about it as I am for this evening. Should it
shift a little later in the day and allow instability to build
before the convection moves into the area, that would be a
different story. Highs to creep back up into the low 90s for the
Brainerd Lakes region.

After another quiet day on Thursday, another shortwave should
bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
and early Saturday, but it is too soon to determine the severe
weather potential with this. This should usher in a bubble of
cooler temperatures aloft with cooler high temperatures through
the weekend, with highs back in the 70s to low 80s for both days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Line of thunderstorms will affect all terminals, except INL,
through the evening. Isold MVFR with the storms, but VFR
elsewhere. Strong gusty winds in the vicinity of the storms, along
with the potential for hail and heavy rain. Will see the storms
diminish/move out of the area through the overnight. Some patchy
BR is also possible with MVFR vsbys after the storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the nearshore waters
through the night, gradually diminishing toward sunrise. Gusty
winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning will accompany the
storms. Higher waves may also accompany the storms. Quiet weather
Tuesday and Tuesday night as high pressure is nearby. Another
round of showers and storms is forecast for Wednesday. Winds will
be northeast at 5 to 10 knots, with some gusts to 20 knots near
the western arm of the lake, and waves less than 3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  78  60  82 /  90  10  40  60
INL  56  85  62  85 /  20  10  60  70
BRD  63  86  66  92 /  50  10  30  50
HYR  61  84  61  86 /  50  10  30  60
ASX  61  79  59  87 /  70  10  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...GSF
MARINE...GSF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1004 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-271030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1004 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the night. Gusty
winds, occasional lightning, heavy rain will accompany the
stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A strong thunderstorm or two may be ongoing early Tuesday
morning. The chance of thunderstorms returns late Tuesday night
and continues through Wednesday night. A few storms may be strong
to severe mainly along and south of US Highway 2 in Minnesota and
Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats with
the strongest storms.

There is a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening over portions of northern Minnesota, and
Saturday afternoon and evening over portions of northwest
Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size, wind
damage, and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-271030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
1004 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely and some may be strong, wind gusts to 60
knots, frequent cloud- to- water lightning, and torrential
rainfall which may reduce visibility to less than one- quarter
mile.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is another chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday
night. A few storms may be strong to severe once again.

GSF

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
954 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW SKIBO              47.52N 92.05W
07/26/2021                   ST. LOUIS          MN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN BASSETT TOWNSHIP.

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1002 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACOBSON                47.00N 93.26W
07/26/2021                   AITKIN             MN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN JACOBSON. FIRE DEPT ALSO
            DISPATCHED TO POWERLINE DOWN. TIME RADAR
            ESTIMATED.

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1007 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW ASHLAND            46.55N 90.92W
07/26/2021  M47 MPH          ASHLAND            WI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KASX ASHLAND AIRPORT.

&&

JJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1011 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

WIZ003-004-008-009-270400-
Price-Iron-Sawyer-Ashland-
1011 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN IRON...
SOUTHEASTERN ASHLAND...PRICE AND SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTIES...

At 1010 PM CDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was near Phillips, or
15 miles south of Park Falls, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail, heavy downpours, and frequent
cloud to ground lightning can be expected with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Phillips around 1015 PM CDT.
  Catawba around 1025 PM CDT.
  Prentice around 1030 PM CDT.
  Ogema around 1040 PM CDT.
  Spirit around 1045 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Connors Lake,
Brantwood, Loretta, Butternut Lake, Pike Lake, Cranberry Lake,
Kennan, Deer Lake, Clifford and Ojibwa.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
these storms pass. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard topped vehicle.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek shelter immediately inside a building or vehicle until these
storms pass.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central and northwestern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4538 9067 4564 9068 4564 9142 4568 9155
      4571 9154 4612 8993 4598 8994 4598 9004
      4539 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 320DEG 40KT 4571 9050

Britt/JTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1023 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     HAIL             3 S BOVEY               47.24N 93.40W
07/26/2021  M1.00 INCH       ITASCA             MN   COCORAHS

            MN-IT-39.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1024 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MERCER                  46.17N 90.06W
07/26/2021                   IRON               WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN TOWN OF MERCER. FIRE
            DEPT DISPATCHED TO SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
            TOWN.

&&

32