Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
629 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

A strong cold front made a run on southwest Kansas this morning. The
head of this High Plains density current nosed all the way south to
West Texas, leading to a north-south orientation of the front across
southwest Kansas. Deep surface-based cumulus was developing as of
1930 UTC just out ahead of the front. SPC Mesoanalysis showed a
small SBCAPE max across southwest into south central KS of 2000+
J/kg. The 6km AGL winds were rather weak at 10 to 15 knots, however
8km AGL winds were stronger out of the west at 35 to 40 knots, so
should a storm form within the area of deep cumulus, some loose
organization can be expected, perhaps even marginal supercell
structure for a bit. The large scale forcing for ascent was weak, so
any convection should wane not long after sunset this evening.

The surface front will weaken and eventually dissolve overnight
tonight as a new leeside trough quickly redevelops across Colorado
and eastern Wyoming. The low level airmass will recover quickly
across the High Plains in particular, thanks to increased southwest
flow aloft and the aforementioned deep leeside trough development.
Upper 80s will be common across the southwest Kansas region as a
result.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

In the Long Term, Sunday will be the hottest day ahead of the next
cold front. There hasn't been much change in today's global models
with respect to the next big upper level trough, as all 3
deterministic models (ECMWF, GFS, GDPS) have the timing and
placement of the trough axis about the same early next week. If we
see any precipitation at all across the southwest Kansas region, it
will have to come with the mid level front behind the surface front
late Monday Night into early Tuesday. Otherwise, the entire Long
Term period will be dry as we slowly climb back into the mid to
perhaps upper 80s toward the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

Thunderstorms possible for the next few hours near and east of a
surface boundary that was located at 23z Friday just west of Dodge
City and near Hays. BUFR soundings indicating cloud bases near
these storms will range from 3000 to 6000ft AGL. After 2z Saturday
this surface boundary will move south and east allowing an area
of low level moisture to spread across southwest Kansas during the
overnight hours. Ceilings as low as 1000 to 2000ft AGL will be
possible overnight behind this surface boundary. The winds will be
northeast at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  88  63  93 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  58  88  62  94 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  54  90  62  96 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  58  89  62  96 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  60  88  64  90 /  30   0   0   0
P28  66  90  63  93 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
314 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
314 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 /214 AM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A strong cold front will switch the winds to the north and become
breezy with sustained winds 20-30 mph and higher gusts.
Thunderstorms could develop along the front this afternoon mainly
for areas along and east of highway 283. Widespread severe weather
is not anticipated however with the environment we could see a
storm or two produce hail larger than quarters.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Breezy south winds on Sunday could lead to a slightly higher fire
danger.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

KSZ064-077-078-180000-
Gray KS-Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Ford,
southwestern Hodgeman and east central Gray Counties through 700 PM
CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cimarron, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Howell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 10034 3794 10021 3784 9995 3762 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 302DEG 5KT 3786 10026

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
655 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

KSZ064-180030-
Hodgeman KS-
655 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Hodgeman County through 730 PM CDT...

At 654 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Jetmore. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Jetmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 10007 3826 9998 3822 9975 3802 9992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 300DEG 3KT 3819 9996

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SPRINGER

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
722 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

KSZ064-078-180100-
Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
722 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Ford
and south central Hodgeman Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 722 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jetmore, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 10006 3818 9985 3791 9975 3788 10006
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 354DEG 19KT 3803 9995

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
729 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

KSZ077-078-180100-
Gray KS-Ford KS-
729 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Ford
and east central Gray Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 729 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ensign, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3766 10030 3780 10019 3772 9990 3750 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 294DEG 6KT 3769 10016

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER