Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
525 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

The timing of the cold front and post frontal stratus will
continue to be the main challenge in the short term forecast.
Various models are in pretty good agreement that the surface low
in southeast Colorado should gain momentum from the 700 mb wave
after sunrise and colder air should quickly sweep into our far
western counties through the noon hour. This cooler air along with
post frontal stratus will lead to difficulties of much diurnal
heating through the day and we could see highs only in the mid 60s
for portions of Hamilton and Scott counties. Through the day as
the low moves eastward compressional heating ahead of the front
should occur for areas south and east of Dodge City where we
should see highs reach into the lower 90s. As the front and upper
level wave continues to move into our central and eastern counties
we will begin to see thunderstorm development. Severe weather at
this point is on the low side as we should have ML Cape values
around 1000 with 0-6 km shear values in the 20-30 kt range. This
could lead to some hail producing storms but hailstones larger
than a quarter would be an outlier in this environment.

Tonight the frontal boundary stalls out in our eastern zones and
as the upper level lift diminishes through the night the storms
should start to fizzle out after sunset. Overnight lows will range
from the mid 50s in the far west to the mid 60s in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

Agreed with the previous forecaster's thoughts on staying slightly
cooler for highs on Saturday as the return southerly flow doesn't
look to bring a fast warm up to western Kansas. Highs will be in
the upper 80s to around 90.

Sunday should have breezy winds with a developing low in southeast
Colorado and this should help to warm temperatures into the mid
90s. The NAM and GFS are indicting the potential for a few pop up
storms before sunset coming out of southeast Colorado into
southwest Kansas with a mountain wave coming from the southwest.
As a result introduced some slight POPs for areas mainly west of
Dodge City.

Early next week a strong cold front is still forecast to move
through western Kansas Monday afternoon and into the evening. A
longwave trough will bring in the post frontal stratus and the
potential for some light rain Monday night into Tuesday morning.
This particular airmass could be our first taste of fall as lows
fall into the 40s for Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

A strong cold front will move through western Kansas today and
will switch the winds to a north and then northeast direction. The
timing of the wind switch will be around 13Z for HYS, 14Z at GCK,
15Z at LBL, and 19Z at DDC. Cloud ceilings will fall from post
frontal stratus with the lowest ceilings still around 5,000 ft for
GCK and LBL. Thunderstorms could break out after 15Z for HYS and
20Z for DDC hence a VCTS descriptor in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  59  88  64 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  77  56  86  63 /  10  20   0   0
EHA  73  55  88  62 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  83  57  88  63 /  10  20   0   0
HYS  77  59  87  64 /  30  20   0   0
P28  89  64  91  63 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
314 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
314 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 /214 AM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A strong cold front will switch the winds to the north and become
breezy with sustained winds 20-30 mph and higher gusts.
Thunderstorms could develop along the front this afternoon mainly
for areas along and east of highway 283. Widespread severe weather
is not anticipated however with the environment we could see a
storm or two produce hail larger than quarters.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Breezy south winds on Sunday could lead to a slightly higher fire
danger.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1002 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

KSZ065-066-081-171600-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Pawnee KS-
1002 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Pawnee,
western Stafford and northwestern Pratt Counties through 1100 AM
CDT...

At 1002 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Radium. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9878 3760 9898 3809 9900 3829 9904
      3829 9903 3826 9903 3826 9872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1502Z 085DEG 2KT 3808 9893

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH