Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Weak northerly to northwesterly mid to high level flow will
persist for the next few days with southeasterly moist upslope
flow at lower levels. 700-500mb temperatures will remain cooler
than climatology and these ingredients will favor small chances
for late afternoon and early nighttime thunderstorms at various
places on the central high plains. The location of these storms
will be problematic and the extent of nocturnal convection is
uncertain. Given the strong meridional component of the mid level
flow, convection along the lee of the Rockies will have a hard
time making it this far east. Expect temperatures to remain at
similar levels through Monday, with lows in the mainly 60s and
highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

By Tuesday and Wednesday a pattern shift will take place with
height falls in the northwestern CONUS and weak troughing over the
southern plains and Midwest. This will probably shift the best
t-storm chances to the south and east of here. However, by late
next week, the northwestern trough is expected to progress into
the Rockies, with southwesterly mid level flow across the central
high plains. There is uncertainty with the evolution and speed of
this trough. But there is a chance of t-storms ahead of the
associated front either by late week or next weekend. There may be
1 or two days with highs back into the mid 90s ahead of the front,
but in general the high temperatures will remain on the seasonal
side in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

VFR conditions will prevail with an increase in mid level
cloudiness. Winds will be light and from the southeast overnight
shifting to more of a southerly direction after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  90  65  87 /   0  10  20  30
GCK  63  91  65  86 /  10  10  20  30
EHA  62  91  64  87 /   0  10  20  30
LBL  62  91  65  86 /   0  10  20  30
HYS  65  89  65  87 /  20  20  20  30
P28  67  91  68  90 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
309 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

KSZ030-031-150845-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
309 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Trego and
western Ellis Counties through 345 AM CDT...

At 308 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Riga, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ellis, Ogallah and Riga around 325 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Cedar Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3911 9970 3906 9948 3870 9943 3871 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 019DEG 16KT 3902 9963

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JJOHNSON