Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1018 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...Updated Mesoscale Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

As of 10 am CDT scattered convection was already developing along
an outflow boundary that was beginning to work its way westward
across north central Kansas. Winds gusting behind high this
boundary of 30 to near 40 mph were reported at Hays and Russell
over the past hour. Models were in good agreement with this
boundary continuing to move west southwest through the early
afternoon and am currently expected isolated to scattered
convection to continue to develop along this boundary as it moves
west/southwest. Winds aloft were fairly weak this morning and with
precipitable water values >1.5" the main hazards from these
storms today will be localized heavy rainfall. Do agree with SPC
latest day one outlook that the potential does exist for isolated
wind gusts of 50 to near 60 mph will be possible from a few of the
strongest storms later this afternoon given the the forecast
MLCAPE and high precip water values. At this time it appears that
the most favorable area for ongoing thunderstorm development
through mid afternoon will be east of highway 283 given the upper
wave lifting north across western Oklahoma towards Central Kansas
and cooler mid level temperatures/weaker cap.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

The main forecast challenge will be later today and tonight when a
large area of thunderstorms is expected to develop and move south
through this period. The subtropical low which moved west across New
Mexico into Arizona allowed for deep lower-mid tropospheric moisture
to push north and northeast from New Mexico into southern Colorado
and Kansas. In addition, surface dewpoints of 65F+ were expanding
across much of western Kansas with lower 70s dewpoints generally
along and east of Highway 281. All of this will lead to PW values
well above the 90th percentile at 1.6 to 1.8 inches along/east of a
Dodge City longitude.

A weak front was nearly stationary overnight from far west central
Kansas into north central Kansas, and this boundary will eventually
push slowly south and become the focus for initial thunderstorm
development early to mid afternoon. Once storms get going, several
clusters will likely mature by late afternoon into the evening hours
as they move slowly east and eventually southeast. The latest WPC
Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall across much of western/central Kansas as a result. We have
increased POPS well into the Likely category with a further increase
in POPs possible as confidence in placement of the greatest rainfall
potential increases through the day. The 00z run of the HREF showed
a 24-hr Ensemble Mean QPF of 0.40 to 0.80 inches along an axis
extending from roughly Oakley southeast through Dodge City and into
south central Kansas...with pockets of ensemble mean QPF close to an
inch. We would certainly expect some areas within the DDC CWA to
receive an inch or more of rain between late afternoon and Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Once the Sunday-Monday system passes by, the western Kansas region
will enter a prolonged hot period. The summer subtropical high will
reposition across the Central and Northern Plains and expand its
influence creating large scale subsidence over a large region of the
central CONUS, including southwest Kansas. The center of the 500mb
high will be close to 600 decameters at times, which is anomalously
high, even by mid-summer standards. The placement and the strength
of the upper level high will support daily high temperatures at or
slightly above 100 degrees for a number of consecutive days, likely
starting Wednesday or perhaps even Tuesday. By the next weekend,
there is suggestion the high will break down some, but this is
fairly low confidence at this point, this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Aviation weather will be quiet with a light south to southeast
wind much of the day today. The aviation forecast will become
increasingly challenging as scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are expected to develop along and ahead of a weak frontal zone
late in the day into the evening. Again for this TAF, we will
only carry VCTS at DDC and HYS where the confidence is higher for
multi-hour impacts, however storms may also impact LBL and GCK
during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  68  93  69 /  60  60  20  10
GCK  92  66  91  67 /  50  40  10  10
EHA  95  66  94  66 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  95  67  92  68 /  30  40  20  20
HYS  91  68  93  69 /  60  40  10  10
P28  97  72  94  71 /  50  60  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261015-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
503 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 /403 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along a slow-
moving front across west central Kansas. The thunderstorm activity
will increase in coverage with numerous thunderstorms expected across
much of the southwest Kansas region this evening. Abundant moisture
in place along with slow-moving storms will lead to a potential local
flooding risk in vulnerable low-lying areas.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Flooding: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1028 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

KSZ045-064-065-079-251600-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Ness KS-Edwards KS-
1028 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...SOUTHERN
NESS...NORTHEASTERN HODGEMAN...PAWNEE...WESTERN STAFFORD AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

At 1028 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking outflow winds from
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Beeler to 9 miles
northwest of Gray to near Larned. Movement was south at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these outflow winds.

Locations impacted include...
Gray, Larned, Kinsley, Jetmore, Lewis, Burdett, Hanston, Garfield,
Rozel, Belpre, Beeler, Sanford, Frizell and Zook.

LAT...LON 3786 9907 3798 9977 3822 10023 3854 10022
      3833 9977 3830 9967 3823 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 010DEG 36KT 3848 10012 3828 9972 3816 9904

TATRO