Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

A mostly quiet weather night is expected across the FA. The main exception
to this is across Hamilton and Kearny counties, perhaps up to Scott
county and points southward. There will be a chance of mid evening
storms in this area. Storms are expected to develop along the higher
terrain of eastern Colorado and then slowly propagate to the south
or perhaps south-southeast. Bulk shear is slightly stronger today around
30-35 kt. The main threats with the storms will be damaging convective
outflows of 60-70 mph and heavy rainfall. Perhaps some hail too with
the slightly stronger shear that is in place. Have the highest pops
during the evening across Hamilton and Kearny counties to account for
this anticipated storm evolution. It should be a mid to late evening
event, so prior to 6 or 7 pm, much of the FA should remain storm free.
Since anticipated storm motion is to the S or SSE, much of the rest
of the area should be in the clear. There was a secondary concern of
storms forming across the Nebraska panhandle and then drifting towards
central Kansas, however, confidence on this actually occurring is low.

Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is ho-hum weather. Overnight lows
look to be seasonal with values mainly in the 60s.

For Saturday, a mid level ridge starts to amplify across the Central
Rockies. The net result is even weaker flow at the mid and upper levels
of the atmosphere. PWATs will continue to remain over an inch, so there
will be moisture and instability in place for storms. Confidence on
exact placement of storms in the weak flow regime is low. As a result,
have broad brush pops across the FA. Activity should remain isolated
to widely scattered, so there is a higher chance you'll remain dry
than seeing a storm over you.

Otherwise, near normal highs are expected with values in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

The center of the mid level ridge on Sunday starts to head north during
the day. This may help us with a slightly higher areal coverage of
storms. The slight chance to chance pops looks reasonable for now.
Temperatures will continue to remain near or perhaps a few degrees
below normal to close out the weekend. It will still be warm nonetheless.

For Monday, the mean center of the mid level ridge is still expected
to be northwest of the FA. Again, a similar weather pattern is expected
to continue with warm temperatures and isolated storms.

As the ridge heads north, low level northeastern flow may develop on
the eastern side of the ridge. This may help to keep temperatures more
in the 80s versus the 90s for Monday through Wednesday. The main caveat
to this is the intense July Sun, which could offset this cooler low
level flow. Regardless if its in the 80s or the 90s, the end result
is still the same with the Summer weather continuing for the rest of
the extended period.

There still is a trend in the long range models to shift the ridge closer
to our area by the end of the business week. This could result in dry
conditions and seasonally hot highs dominating.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Gusty winds will precede an area of weaken thunderstorms as they
approach the Garden City and Liberal area between 08z and 10z this
Saturday morning. A few isolated storms will also possible in the
Dodge City area between 10z and 12z. Cloud bases in and near
these storms will range from 5000 to 9000ft AGL. In the Hays area
early Saturday morning an area of of low level moisture is
forecast by the BUFR soundings between 10z and 14z between 1000 to
2000ft AGL. After 15 VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF
sites. Winds on Saturday will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  93  68  92 /  30  20  20  30
GCK  66  92  66  90 /  40  20  20  30
EHA  66  94  67  92 /  20  30  30  20
LBL  67  93  67  91 /  20  20  20  30
HYS  67  90  67  88 /  20  20  20  40
P28  70  93  70  91 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
243 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
243 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 /143 AM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Dense fog will reduce the visibility to one quarter mile or less
through 10am CDT along and north of a Garden City to Dodge City to
Pratt line.

There will be chance for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms this evening across west central Kansas. The main
hazards this evening will be wind gusts of 50 to near 60 mph and
hail up to one inch.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Fog: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for thunderstorms just about each night
from Saturday night through monday night. The probability for
widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Isolated spotter activation may be needed this evening west and
north of Garden City.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

KSZ061-062-074-084-170545-
Stanton KS-Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-Morton KS-
1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1141 PM CDT/1041 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles north of Manter to
near Stonington. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Manter and The Saunders Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 10204 3787 10150 3727 10191 3727 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 261DEG 18KT 3773 10193 3736 10216

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S COOLIDGE            38.03N 102.01W
07/16/2021  M59 MPH          HAMILTON           KS   MESONET

            REPORT WAS FROM KSDOT SITE K5C00.

&&

RB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1234 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

KSZ061-062-170630-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
1234 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON...KEARNY AND
NORTHWESTERN FINNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT/1230 AM MDT/...

At 1234 AM CDT/1134 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 17 miles north of Deerfield
to 14 miles north of Manter. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lakin, Syracuse, Coolidge and Kendall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10110 3774 10130 3774 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0534Z 069DEG 13KT 3822 10123 3773 10195

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1236 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

KSZ061-074-084-170630-
Stanton KS-Hamilton KS-Morton KS-
1236 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MORTON...SOUTHEASTERN
HAMILTON AND STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT/1230 AM MDT/...

At 1236 AM CDT/1136 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles southwest of
Syracuse to 10 miles southeast of Stonington. Movement was east at
15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Manter, Richfield, Big Bow and The Saunders Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 10204 3775 10153 3739 10155 3739 10156
      3722 10156 3719 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 235DEG 18KT 3782 10187 3723 10202

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

KSZ043-044-062-063-075-076-170615-
Finney KS-Kearny KS-Lane KS-Grant KS-Scott KS-Haskell KS-
1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY...FINNEY...
EASTERN GRANT...SOUTHERN SCOTT...SOUTHWESTERN LANE...AND WESTERN
HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1243 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow boundary from
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Shallow Water to 8
miles southeast of Deerfield to 11 miles north of Feterita. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Holcomb, Satanta, Deerfield, Ryus, Friend, Hickok,
Shallow Water and Plymell.

LAT...LON 3844 10062 3782 10068 3740 10101 3739 10143
      3787 10114 3847 10105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 276DEG 29KT 3840 10099 3786 10106 3732 10149

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
216 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

KSZ061-074-170800-
Stanton KS-Hamilton KS-
216 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT/200 AM MDT/...

At 216 AM CDT/116 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles northwest of Johnson City, moving east at 15
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 10201 3781 10196 3779 10164 3755 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 283DEG 12KT 3771 10190

TATRO