Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
213 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...Updated for mesoscale discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Key Messages...

Thunderstorms are expected to move into far southwestern Kansas by
4 pm. Given the vertical shear profile, large hail and damaging
winds are expected. These storms are expected to evolve into
a line later in the evening and then sweep eastward. Other storms
are expected along a frontal boundary across south central Kansas
and these could be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

Technical discussion...

Plentiful moisture is available on the cool side of a frontal
boundary across far southwestern Kansas. As winds become easterly
this afternoon, 0-6 km bulk shear will be on the order of 45kts,
which is sufficient for supercell storms. This convection has
already initiated over the favored topographic areas in the
immediate lee of the Rockies and will move eastward and affect
extreme southwestern Kansas by 4 or 5 pm. Depending on how quickly
these storms grow upscale, there is the potential for very large
hail and a small potential for a tornado or two. If line formation
occurs quickly before reaching Kansas, then the main concerns
would be damaging winds as high as 70 mph and marginally severe
hail as the storm line moves eastward through Ulysses, Liberal and
Sublette.

Additional storms are expected to develop by 3 pm along the front
from Stafford and Pratt counties southwestward to Comanche and
Barber counties. The vertical shear profile is marginal in this
area for supercells, with multicell clusters more likely. We will
need to monitor for storm scale interactions that could locally
enhance the shear profile. Eventually these storms will likely
form into a line, with wind and marginally severe hail being the
primary threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Convective initiation is likely to occur at least by the 4 to 5
pm timeframe and perhaps earlier, moving in from Oklahoma. Surface
based storms would be most likely to be triggered in the the most
moisture laden column airmass over western Oklahoma and south
central Kansas where the pwats measure climatologically very high,
in excess of about 1.6 inches up to nearly 1.9 inches in Barber
county, helping create some very high CAPS values over south
central Kansas. The flash flood guidance for the area exceed about
2.5 inches for an hour and pushing 4-5 inches in many areas on a
6 hour basis. Since the storm clusters overall looking to remain
progressive, the training of storms will probably be limited.
However isolated flash flooding cannot be discounted. Very high
CAPE values and increasing effective shear will add to the wind
risk with multicell clusters.

For Tonight - upper 60s and lingering stratus clouds are most
likely along ans south east of the synoptic boundary, with best
change for some clearing in the western counties where cooler air
will be working southward overnight as the front surges southward
and rain cooled air.

Saturday will see about a 5 to 15 degree ease in temperatures to the
cool side with the lessened moist and hot air in place. Coolest
signal looks over the west central Kansas counties where an overall
signal from the models and MOS  suggest highs capped int he upper
70s, while upper 80s is more likely still over the lower plains
counties in the eastern and south central Kansas counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

It looks like the forcing from the upper trough moving though the
central and southern Rockies will aid in pushing drier air over the
area, and in effect the convergent surface boundary southward into
Oklahoma. Saturday evening won't be completely free of convective
chances across southwest Kansas, as there does appear to be at least
an upslope component to the surface winds near the OK/KS line, as
well as the upper exiting jet in the PVA region of the tough
extending from central KS into sw IA. Beyond that The GFS/ECMWF are
in good agreement lingering a surface boundary somewhere from se KS
into central Oklahoma which would men multiple days of diurnally
driven convection in those areas, and the best opportunity for
additional strong to severe thunderstorms evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

High probability exists for severe convective development this
evening with a few storms capable of producing severe downburst
winds in excess of 65 knots, as well as large hail. Initial
development will be in the warm sector, southerly winds and higher
moisture content area of south central KS before rapidly
expanding along a stationary front roughly paralleling the highway
50 corridor east of DDC. Any storms that develop will have
potential for outflow triggering additional storms. As a result
scattered to numerous storms are likely to develop after about 22
Z, certainly with potential to impact the LBL and GCK/DDC though
about 01Z and then HYS as well a little later in the mid evening.
Most of the activity is likely to end by about the 6 to 8 Z
timeframe. 1000-1500 ft ceilings should be easily achievable in
areas of strong convection and as stratus develops post convection
late this evening, IFR-LIFR possibilities will exist along the
leftover outflow areas, becoming more widespread overnight with
longwave radiational cooling. Locally VLIFR status could occur
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  64  83  60 /  60  80  30  10
GCK  88  61  82  57 /  60  80  20  10
EHA  91  61  82  58 /  60  70  30  20
LBL  93  62  82  58 /  70  80  30  20
HYS  87  64  83  59 /  60  70  20  10
P28  98  69  82  65 /  70  90  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 /1158 PM MDT Thu Jun 24 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Evening storms will be possible again across south central Kansas
along a cold front. Damaging winds and some hail and heavy
rainfall at the main threats.

Another area of storms may move out of Colorado and into Kansas as
well. Damaging winds and large hail with heavy rainfall will be
the main threats with this second area during the evening.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Excessive heat: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Storms will be possible during this period. The main threat is
wind and perhaps some hail.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ030-031-045-252045-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
254 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Cedar Bluff, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Schoenchen, Brownell and Antonino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3887 9938 3871 9932 3870 9940 3870 9958
      3867 9959 3862 9985 3871 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 249DEG 12KT 3872 9961

RUSSELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
338 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ066-252115-
Stafford KS-
338 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Iuka, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stafford, Zenith and Neola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3783 9853 3783 9884 3785 9886 3811 9848
      3784 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 239DEG 17KT 3784 9872

RUSSELL