Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1253 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

Another rinse and repeat short term forecast for the most part
with upper level ridging firmly in place across the Rockies and
high plains. Low level clouds have lifted and cleared for more
ample sunshine once again Sunday afternoon. With leeside troughing
over eastern Colorado, expect another warm downsloping wind from
the south to southwest gusting to 20-25 mph with peak heating of
the afternoon. Temperatures will thus, push into the upper 80s to
near 90 near the Colorado state line. Models have slowed on the
progression on any storms pushing across the border forming off
the terrain until after midnight. Even at that point, storms look
to dissipate after sunset with no indication that they will hold
up long enough to touch the state. Regardless, any storms that do
make it will not have much strength to them being garden variety
type at best.

Otherwise, expect slightly less south winds overnight with
temperatures dropping into the low to mid 60s under radiational
cooling of mainly clear skies. More of the same to start the new
work week with winds mixing to the surface with daytime heating
gusting to 20-25 mph but with more of a westerly component that
will allow for stronger downslope. Temperatures will push into the
upper 80s but with low 90s west of the Hwy 83 corridor. Continued
dry weather with only a few cumulus low to mid level clouds
throughout the afternoon Monday and more of the same heading into
the long term forecast as well.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

More of the same for the long term forecast under the same upper
level ridge and leeside trough from the short term. Expect
continued dry conditions and steadily increasing temperatures
through Thursday. Widespread 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday with
upper 90s to breaking the 100 degree mark along the Oklahoma state
line for Thursday.

A cold front will push through early Friday morning keeping
temperatures closer to average for this time of year in the upper
80s to around 90 as winds turn more northerly for much of the
remainder of the day. Expect similar temperatures over the weekend
around 90 degrees and continued lows in the low to mid 60s. Winds
will turn more southeasterly bringing more an ample low level
moisture field across the CWA increasing storm chances each late
afternoon and evening. Widespread storms at this point is
unlikely but still uncertainty this far out in the forecast. In
all, mostly hot and dry for the long term forecast with some
reprieve next weekend will not as hot temperatures and minimal
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

IFR or low MVFR CIGS are possible between 11 and 15z with diurnal
cooling of a moist low level air mass. Confidence is low since
there is a fine line between cloud and high humidity with no
cloud. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected outside of the
stratus, with southeast winds increasing to 12-14 kts with
daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  86  66  89 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  64  89  65  89 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  62  90  63  93 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  65  89  65  89 /  10  10  10   0
HYS  64  87  65  89 /  10   0  10   0
P28  66  85  67  89 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
448 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-071000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
448 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 /348 AM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1135 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

KSZ061-070600-
Hamilton KS-
1135 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT...

At 1135 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Hartman, or 13 miles north of Coolidge, moving
south at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Hamilton County.

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10181 3808 10181 3807 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0535Z 004DEG 7KT 3824 10205

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1158 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

KSZ061-070630-
Hamilton KS-
1158 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
UNTIL 1230 AM MDT...

At 1158 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Coolidge, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Coolidge.

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10181 3792 10180 3787 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 026DEG 11KT 3820 10195

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1214 AM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021

KSZ061-070645-
Hamilton KS-
1214 AM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 AM MDT...

At 1214 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coolidge, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Coolidge.

LAT...LON 3803 10203 3810 10188 3790 10177 3774 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 311DEG 4KT 3800 10199

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1237 AM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021

KSZ061-070700-
Hamilton KS-
1237 AM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
UNTIL 100 AM MDT...

At 1237 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Coolidge. This storm was nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Syracuse and Coolidge.

LAT...LON 3808 10204 3802 10168 3775 10181 3790 10205
      3796 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 293DEG 4KT 3796 10192

JJOHNSON