Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
629 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Key Messages...

The airmass over western Kansas is still very unstable. T-storms
are expected to develop over the next hour across far southwestern
Kansas and become severe with very large hail. Severe storms could
also develop and become severe farther north although the ongoing
storms are still weak.

Technical discussion...

An outflow boundary from storms earlier this afternoon over Ellis
and Rush counties has pushed westward into western Trego county.
New t-storms could initiate on this stalled out boundary or move
eastward and interact with it, enhancing the low level shear
profile. Elsewhere, t-storm initiation was occurring across far
southwest Kansas along the dry line and near the Oklahoma state
line ahead of the dry line. If these maintain themselves, rotating
storms with very large hail could be expected given the strong
0-6 km bulk shear around 40 kts. As the low level jet develops by
7-8 pm any storms that are still in progress would have a chance
of producing a tornado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

At 19z a nearly stationary surface boundary extended from
northwest Kansas into central Kansas with the best deep moisture
convergence being present over northwest Kansas just ahead of an
approaching upper level 400mb PVU. Models continue to agree that
this area is where the better chances for developing convection
late today and early this evening. Very large hail, heavy rain and
even a few tornadoes will be possible with these storms late
today and early tonight. There is also a chance for some isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms south of this nearly stationary
boundary across southwest Kansas early this Wednesday evening.
These storms are expected to develop along a dryline that will be
located over extreme southwest Kansas and then quickly strengthen
as they move east across the remainder of southwest Kansas. The
environment in this area also supports very large hail and
possibly a few tornadoes early tonight.

As the storms move east overnight a cold front will move into
southwest Kansas by early Thursday morning as an upper level
trough exits the Rockies and begins to cross the central United
States. By evening this cold front is currently forecast to extend
from west to east along the Oklahoma border and across South
Central kansas. This boundary will once again be the focus for
strong to severe thunderstorms late Thursday and early Thursday
night.

As the cold front crosses Western Kansas on Thursday Gusty North
winds and some cooler air will begin to return to Western Kansas
behind this front highs will climb into the eighties while near
90° temperatures will be possible along and just south of this
front.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

A cold front will drop South into Northern Oklahoma and the
panhandle of Texas on Friday where it will become stationary
during the day and overnight. A cool surface ridge axis will cross
Western Kansas during the day and as a result the highs Friday
afternoon will be mainly in the 70s. Dry conditions will also be
briefly returning to southwest Kansas on Friday and early Saturday
as the surface ridge axis crosses the Central Plains. The chance
of thunderstorms will be returning late this Memorial Day weekend
as this surface boundary south of the Oklahoma border lifts north
as a warm front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Moist upslope flow will continue today across southwest Kansas.
Gusty southeast winds will be at around 20 knots this afternoon.
Isolated to widely scattered late day convection will occur ahead
of an upper level trough as it crosses western Kansas. The high
probability for convection to occur near an airport will be most
likely near Hays between 23z Wednesday and 03z Thursday. BUFR
soundings indicating a developing low level jet developing early
tonight with 50knot wind speeds possible around 2000ft AGL after
sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  82  49  73 /  30  10  20  10
GCK  60  81  49  73 /  40   0  10  10
EHA  59  82  52  75 /  20   0  20  20
LBL  61  81  51  74 /  20  10  20  20
HYS  62  80  46  70 /  60  10  10   0
P28  67  87  52  73 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
428 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-270930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
428 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 /328 AM MDT Wed May 26 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Afternoon and evening severe weather will be a possibility on
This Afternoon and evening as a conditionally unstable airmass is
in place, and a weak surface low over far southwest Kansas lifts
a stationary front northward as a warm front. Damaging wind, hail
to the size of baseballs and tornadoes are all possible between 3
pm and midnight.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Elevated risk
* Hail: Significant risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms may develop at the leading edge of cooler airmass,
over south central Kansas Thursday afternoon.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 3 pm this afternoon.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
725 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             6 SE COPELAND           37.49N 100.55W
05/26/2021  NAN INCH         GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
729 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             6 SE COPELAND           37.49N 100.55W
05/26/2021  E0.88 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 6 SE
            COPELAND.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
735 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             8 SSW MONTEZUMA         37.49N 100.49W
05/26/2021  E1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

&&

LEE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
754 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ077-078-270130-
Gray KS-Ford KS-
754 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 753 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near The Haggard Elev, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ensign, The Haggard Elev and Howell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3753 10032 3766 10043 3782 10019 3758 9995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 232DEG 22KT 3761 10033

SUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
757 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             1 N ENSIGN              37.67N 100.23W
05/26/2021  E1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
759 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ064-078-270200-
Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
759 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FORD AND CENTRAL
HODGEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 759 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Jetmore, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gray, Jetmore and Hanston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3782 9997 3798 10012 3822 9993 3820 9958
      3791 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 231DEG 25KT 3795 9997

SUGDEN