Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
837 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...updated mesoscale section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 828 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

A zone of enhanced near surface vorticity with numerous single cell
showers and thunderstorms has produced a landspout earlier this
evening over northeastern Stanton county. Meanwhile, an
environment is in place with relatively weak deep layer shear but
still adequate effective bulk shear of around 30 knots near the
Kansas Oklahoma line and 7 deg/km lapse rates, 2000 J/kg
supporting organized convection moving north into the area, from
the ongoing convection over the panhandles. The clusters of storms
or line segments may however not be well organized with surface
based updrafts for long indicated by the very weak MCS maintenance
parameter over the entire area. At this time there is only low to
moderate certainty that a severe thunderstorm watch becomes
extended northward from the panhandles. Still look for a short
term risk for severe thunderstorm winds to around 60 mph in areas
like Johnson City and Elkhart in the next hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Models earlier this afternoon were in good agreement with an
upper level disturbance, evident from the 400 mb PVU, lifting
northeast across southwest Kansas late tonight as a weakening
500mb upper low slowly moves east across New Mexico. A surface
cold front/stationary front is forecast to extend from southeast
Colorado into the Panhandle of Texas with a moist upslope
flow/instability axis being present just north of this boundary.
Late day heating and 0-1km moisture convergence along this surface
boundary ahead of the approaching upper level wave will give rise
to some afternoon thunderstorms. NAM has 0-6km shear values of to
30knots prior to model initiation with the flow perpendicular to
the surface boundary and across the moisture/instability axis.
This may give rise to some discrete severe thunderstorms north of
this boundary early this evening as the upper level wave
approaches. Improving 850mb to 700mb moisture transport develops
between 00z and 06z Tuesday over southwest Kansas so as storms
develop near the surface boundary early this evening they should
become elevated and continue into the overnight hours across
southwest Kansas. 0-6km shear overnight will be around 20 knots so
widespread severe weather is not expected but a few isolated
severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out with around quarter size
hail and wind gusts near 60 mph being the main threats. Main item
of interest overnight will be the widespread rainfall with
additional rainfall totals overnight expected to average between
0.5 and 1 inch. As always with thunderstorms some locally higher
amounts will also be likely. Heavy rainfall from last night
(Sunday night) across some portions of west central Kansas did
cause some concern about the potential for flash flooding with
this upcoming expected rainfall but at this time have decided to
hold off issuing a flash flood watch after talking to those in the
counties of concern and good collaboration with our surrounding
offices.

As this upper wave lifts north and east of our county warning
area Tuesday the steadier precipitation will taper off during the
day on Tuesday...but only briefly given that the weakening upper
low itself will be making its way out of the Rockies and out into
the west central high plains. This approaching upper level system
will bring with it another opportunity for precipitation mid week.

Temperatures Tuesday will stay on the cool side given the
expected rains and cloud cover. Highs in the lower 70s are likely
but could easily see high only in the 60s if the rain lingers
longer than what is currently expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This wet period is still on track to end late week as the
weakening upper low/trough crosses the Central Plains. This will
give way to some afternoon sunshine and warmer (more seasonal)
temperatures on Thursday. These dry and warm conditions will not
last long given that the extended forecast models remain in good
agreement with another upper low trough crossing the Western
United States over the weekend period. Ahead of this approaching
upper level trough/low there will be another chance for widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Moisture return ahead of this next
system even suggests the beginning of this next period of wet
weather may begin as early as Friday afternoon but the best
opportunity for widespread thunderstorms will be occurring over
the weekend period and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

A broad area of light easterly upslope surface winds are noted
across the area as the atmosphere has seen a marked increase in mean
layer moisture. Thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain in
new mexico are expected to lift north moving with the mean winds
after this evening, and be driven into increasingly weaker deep
shear, but still moderate instability as they move north. Still,
as the overall risk for severe storms seems to be decreasing with
northward extent, fairly numerous storms are likely with efficient
rainfall potential, as an mcs probably becomes outflow dominant
and more elevated over kansas. Relatively low lcls farther north
will lead to occasional IFR ceilings in showers and storms.
Additional rounds of showers and storms may occur into early
Tuesday morning, however the second round may be more focused over
the panhandles, but clipping the a southern taf site like LBL
possibly after 12z based on general convective allowing model. TAF
updates may be required during the mid/late evening for LBL/GCK
based on thunderstorms wind trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  68  55  76 /  80  60  50  50
GCK  53  67  52  74 /  90  50  40  50
EHA  50  70  50  74 / 100  40  50  50
LBL  52  71  51  75 /  90  40  50  50
HYS  56  69  55  75 /  60  70  60  60
P28  59  72  58  77 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Russell
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
320 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
320 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 /220 AM MDT Mon May 17 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe storms will be possible along the KS/OK border
this evening into the early overnight hours. Hail around an inch
and winds above 60 mph will be the main concern.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday into Wednesday. As of now
these storms do not look to become severe.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
744 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TORNADO          11 NNW BIG BOW          37.70N 101.64W
05/17/2021                   STANTON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LANDSPOUT TORNADO WAS OBSERVED.

&&

MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
751 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

KSZ061-062-180130-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
751 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...Brief Landspout Tornadoes Possible...

At 751 PM CDT/651 PM MDT/, conditions are becoming favorable for the
development of landspout tornadoes in and close to the outlined area.
However, at this time it is unknown which if any storm would produce
a landspout. Any landspouts which develop are expected to pose a
limited threat.

Locations impacted include...
Lakin, Syracuse and Deerfield.

Landspout tornadoes can form with a developing thunderstorm before
rain, hail, and even thunder is observed. Landspout tornadoes are not
usually associated with a wall cloud and are often difficult to
detect with weather radar.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 10190 3826 10169 3826 10112 3794 10113

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
756 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

KSZ074-084-180200-
Stanton KS-Morton KS-
756 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...Brief Landspout Tornadoes Possible...

At 756 PM CDT, conditions are becoming favorable for the development
of landspout tornadoes in and close to the outlined area. However,
at this time it is unknown which if any storm would produce a
landspout. Any landspouts which develop are expected to pose a
limited threat.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Johnson City, Manter, Richfield, Wilburton, The Saunders
Elevator and Big Bow.

Landspout tornadoes can form with a developing thunderstorm before
rain, hail, and even thunder is observed. Landspout tornadoes are not
usually associated with a wall cloud and are often difficult to
detect with weather radar.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 10204 3764 10154 3700 10168 3699 10204

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
723 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021

KSZ061-180215-
Hamilton KS-
723 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM MDT...

At 721 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Syracuse, moving northwest at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

A brief landspout tornado may be possible as well. Landspout
tornadoes can form with a developing thunderstorm before rain, hail,
and even thunder is observed. Landspout tornadoes are not usually
associated with a wall cloud and are often difficult to detect with
weather radar. Any landspouts which develop are expected to pose a
limited threat.

Locations impacted include...
Syracuse.

LAT...LON 3782 10155 3775 10176 3813 10204 3824 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 155DEG 21KT 3786 10170

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
848 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

KSZ074-084-085-180245-
Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Morton KS-
848 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORTON...STANTON AND WESTERN
STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 848 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Vilas to 7 miles northeast of
Griggs. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Johnson City, Rolla, Manter, Richfield, Wilburton, The
Saunders Elevator and Feterita.

LAT...LON 3766 10204 3770 10178 3700 10127 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 233DEG 35KT 3724 10248 3669 10205

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
939 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

KSZ074-084-085-180345-
Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Morton KS-
939 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORTON...SOUTHWESTERN GRANT...
STANTON AND WESTERN STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 939 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near The Saunders Elevator to near Wilburton.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Johnson City, Rolla, Manter, Richfield, Wilburton, The
Saunders Elevator and Feterita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 10204 3773 10180 3755 10157 3702 10141
      3700 10146 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 221DEG 18KT 3748 10201 3701 10179

SUGDEN